by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 7 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 9 - 10 - 8 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 6 - 1/1A
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 8 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 8 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 9: 2 - 10 - 12 - 14
RACE 2: PENNYS FROM HEAVEN (#2)
After the scratch of likely favorite Saratoga Style, this race becomes totally wide open. One potential advantage that Saratoga Style would have had is pace, since she figured to close into contested early splits set by Big Brown Cat and No Stone Unturned. Yet that scenario should also benefit her stablemate, Pennys From Heaven, who figures to be a much more enticing price. This filly was curiously bet down to 9-1 last time in a much tougher N1X allowance race. While she didn’t run particularly well that day, she improved on her debut speed figure and was actually in contention until the final eighth. She, too, will appreciate the drop in class, and I find it interesting that Junior Alvarado stays aboard this seemingly weaker half of the uncoupled entry after riding Saratoga Style to victory two back. She doesn’t have to improve that much to beat this group.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
RACE 3: DILLON ROCKS (#9)
At first glance, horses like Chantry Flats and Rhode Island look pretty formidable. Both have earned speed figures that make them significantly faster than their rivals. Yet they each are coming into this race off layoffs and now meet some improving 3-year-olds who could have a say in the outcome. I slightly prefer Rhode Island, since he has more recent form. He actually ran quite well with a difficult trip when last seen at Gulfstream, but he’s had his chances and doesn’t appear to have the strongest will to win races. Chad Brown has entered a pair and both are worthy of consideration. I prefer the 4-year-old Unleveraged, who showed real potential in his debut as a 2-year-old, rallying to be second following an uncomfortable trip. It’s taken him an eternity to get back to the races, but Brown has solid numbers with maidens off long layoffs of this type. I’m using him prominently, but I think there’s a longshot in this race who deserves to be highlighted. Dillon Rocks is a horse that I’ve been waiting to bet on the surface switch to turf. He definitely has the pedigree for it, even though it’s not blatantly obvious. Paynter is actually a decent turf influence, with his progeny connecting in 14 percent of their starts in turf routes. There is not much production to speak of in this female family, but his unraced dam is by Street Cry and she is half-sister to Gold City, who was graded stakes-placed on both dirt and turf. Looking deeper into this female family, his second dam is a daughter of European Group 1 winner Crimplene. Dillon Rocks has shown hints of ability on occasion, but has never quite lived up to that impressive 21 1/5 workout over the synthetic surface at Ocala as a 2-year-old in training. This surface switch could change that. He has a nice stride on him, but it’s one that appears to be better suited to the turf. If Dylan Davis is aggressive out of the gate, Dillon Rocks can secure the lead from Chantry Flats and lead this field for a long way at a massive price.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,6,8,10
RACE 6: TEAM WIN (#3)
The two fillies with the most turf experience are likely to attract the bulk of support. Morelikelythannot ran well in both of her turf starts, which came 10 months apart in 2017 and 2018. She showed some potential in her debut at Gulfstream and finished up strongly, but I thought she really should have won second time out at Keeneland. Jose Ortiz put her in position to win that race at the eighth pole and she just flattened out in the closing stages while passed from behind late. She can win, but I slightly prefer the 3-year-old filly On the Town. She met some pretty salty maiden fields at Gulfstream this winter, and she acquitted herself admirably both times. Her one flaw is that she possesses no early speed and will be launching a run from the back of the pack, but she may be too talented for this field. I’m definitely using both of these fillies, but I want to take a shot with a first time turfer at a better price. Team Win finally gets a chance to make the surface switch after starting her career on dirt this winter at Aqueduct. She clearly needed her debut after shipping up from Florida, but she ran much better in her second start. She showed improved early speed under Manny Franco that day and battled on gamely once headed in the lane. She appeared to be much more comfortable racing over a sloppy, sealed track, and that may be indicative of turf inclination. She’s certainly bred to handle grass as a daughter of Malibu Moon out of a dam who was a stakes-placed 3-time turf winner. Over the past 5 years, Todd Pletcher is an excellent 30 for 118 (25 percent, $2.69 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,7
RACE 7: ACHILLES WARRIOR (#8)
If Wegotoldyougotsold duplicates his runner-up effort from Feb. 16, he is highly unlikely to lose this race. That day featured an extremely strong rail bias and this gelding was forced to race 2- to 3-wide throughout after getting outrun to the lead by the eventual winner. Most horses on that card came up empty in the lane after such a trip, but Wegotoldyougotsold refused to yield, only losing by a length. That 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure is clearly the highest number in the field and it’s conceivable he would have run much faster given a more favorable setup. My one concern is that his prior form did not hint at him possessing that kind of potential, and I’m worried he won’t be able to replicate the performance. He’s clearly the horse to beat, but I’m not enthusiastic about accepting a very short price. The only horse who intrigues me as an alternative is the 3-year-old Achilles Warrior, who returns from a layoff following an aborted juvenile campaign. This colt put in a decent effort to win his off-the-turf debut at Saratoga last year, but things went awry soon after. He was overmatched in the Champagne and then nothing went right for him when he was turned back in distance at Churchill Downs. While he’s clearly better than those efforts, his debut effort would get him nothing in this spot. However, after watching his most recent workout at Gulfstream Park, I’m confident that we will see a vastly improved version of Achilles Warrior on Sunday. I wasn’t blown away by any of the drills I watched prior to his debut last summer, but he looked like a completely different horse breezing last week. Placed in company with Grade 2 winning sprinter Strike Power, he easily ran away from that workmate on the far turn, forcing his rider to vigorously restrain him approaching the quarter pole. In the lane, he continued under restraint while maintain a slight lead on his classy workmate through the wire. This horse looks primed for a big effort off the layoff.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,2,4,6