by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 5 - 10
Race 5: 8 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 9 - 10 - 1 - 11
Race 9: 9 - 3 - 2 - 6
RACE 4: NO REGRETS (#9)
Atlantic Force is one of the few runners in this race who sports recent turf form and likely will go favored off the strength of his Tampa Bay Downs maiden win two back. He was still running under the Juddmonte colors at that time but has since been privately purchased by a partnership that includes Bill Mott. He cuts back to six furlongs, which seems logical, and is the horse to beat. However, one thing to notice about this race is that there is not much early speed signed on. Almost all of the other runners with decent turf form are closers. For that reason, I’m interested in No Regrets, who switches back to turf for the first time since last summer. He was facing tougher maiden foes in those two grass attempts and really didn’t show much. However, he appears to have improved since then, and he’s done so in sprint races. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche figures to be aggressive and get him out to the front. If he handles this surface, I think he has a chance to take this field wire to wire at a generous price.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,5,10
RACE 5: SISTER SPARROW (#8)
The horses who have been running at this level have not been particularly effective, so you want class droppers and first-time starters. Frau Blucher makes plenty of sense as she drops for her second start. She may not have handled the wet going in her debut and was compromised by racing wide on a day that featured a golden rail. She gets Lasix and a rider switch to Irad Ortiz for her second chance. I’m certainly using her, but I slightly prefer the other second-time starters dropping out of maiden special weight company. Sister Sparrow also caught a wet track in her initial start, but I like that she at least showed brief speed before fading. She actually comes out of a much faster race than Frau Blucher, as the top two finishers are both nice horses. It’s noteworthy that Jeremiah Englehart has very strong numbers with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company on dirt at NYRA. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 23 (35 percent, $2.36 ROI) in such situations.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,9
RACE 6: ZENBENNIE (#3)
War Canoe deserves respect as she makes her first start since enjoying a revelatory Aqueduct fall meet. This mare really seemed to be in sync with rider Dylan Davis and relished the Aqueduct turf. She loses Davis for this race but is back on her favorite surface. The only knock against her is that she tends to drop well out of contention early in her races and will require some luck to get up for the win. She’s also facing a few more formidable foes than those she met last year. One runner who fits very well from a class perspective is my top pick, Zenbennie. This filly was somewhat of a surprise winner when last seen on this circuit in August at Saratoga. However, she has vastly improved since that time. She followed up that performance by contesting two stakes, and she actually held her own despite going off at long odds each time. Her effort Sept. 30 at Laurel was especially encouraging, as she finished just a few lengths behind proven open-stakes horses Queen Caroline and Armoire after setting the pace. I’m confident that her final two turf efforts of 2017 surely would put her in the winner’s circle against this group. Her biggest hurdle may be the presence of Grandpa’s Arianna to her inside since both appear to have speed. Yet Zenbennie should be a square price, so she’s undoubtedly worth the risk. I’ll use her with War Canoe, and I want to throw in Hardly Mate, who appeared to return to top form last time at Gulfstream.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 5,6 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 7: GOING STRONG (#8)
Getoffmyback is going to win this race if he runs back to his effort two back, when he was elevated into the win over the vastly improved Morning Buzz. However, his first start off the claim for the new connections was disappointing, as that same rival defeated him by over 11 lengths. He’s now dropping down below the Feb. 18 claiming tag as the connections risk losing him in search of an easy win. He’s the one to fear, but you can’t fully trust him. I have similar concerns about the current form of horses like Cause for Surprise and Major League, who also come off poor recent efforts. Therefore, I want to get a bit more creative. My top pick is Going Strong. This horse is going to need a few things to swing in his favor if he’s to win this race, but I do feel that we’re likely to see an improved effort out of him. I think this gelding is actually more effective in sprint races, so I like that they’re finally running him shorter. Last time, he was simply entered in too tough a spot, as he finished alongside Getoffmyback while well in arrears of Morning Buzz. When Going Strong was last in Gary Contessa’s barn last fall, he ran a few sprint races that would make him very competitive here. He is a closer, but he figures to get some pace to close into with speed likely to come from Buddy Anthony, Fratello del Nord, and Grassady.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 8: FIRE AWAY (#9)
The first NYRA turf stakes of 2018 marks the return of Grade 1 Hollywood Derby winner Mo Town. He closed out last year as one of the most exciting U.S. turf horses following that visually impressive score at Del Mar. He broke behind the field and had to advance wide throughout. Considering the trip, he was a far more dominant winner than the one-length margin of victory would indicate. One of his main rivals appears to be Projected, who also returns from a layoff for Chad Brown. This gelding never ascended to Grade 1 company last year, but he nevertheless maintained a high level of performance throughout the season. Others may offer better value considering the layoff, but he must be used. One of those bigger prices to include is Aqueduct lover Macagone. He’s won the last two editions of this race, and his early speed always makes him dangerous. While he did tail off following his win in this race last year, he had valid excuses for some of those efforts, and he usually runs well fresh. I considered making him my top pick, but the presence of some fellow speeds in this race scares me a bit. Therefore, I’m betting Fire Away. This horse figures to go off as the third choice, and I think he’s just as likely to win as the two favorites. Like Macagone, he loves the Aqueduct turf, and I feel that one mile is the perfect distance for him. His return in the Tampa Bay Stakes was a reasonably strong effort considering that he had to avoid a fallen rival on the far turn. Few trainers are better than Shug McGaughey at getting classy older runners to continue improving with age.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,10,11
Trifecta: 9 with 1,10,11 with 1,8,10,11