by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 8 - 6 - 9
Race 2:   13 - 14 - 15 - 12
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   10 - 6 - 7 - 12
Race 7:   6 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   9 - 1 - 3 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: ITS A FORD (#2)
I’ll be very interested to see how the public approaches this race, since there’s a horse in here who figures to divide handicappers. Shannon’s Girl comes into this spot with a set of speed figures that absolutely tower over this field. However, all of those numbers have been earned on the turf and her lone dirt start was much slower. It is worth pointing out that she was meeting maiden special weight company in that lone dirt performance, but she was racing over a sloppy track, which she is likely to encounter again on Sunday, and had no answer when asked. I respect the connections, but you have to think they’re just looking to lose this filly for $20,000 now that it’s the end of the turf season. She may win at a short price, but in my opinion this is the type of horse that you will do well betting against in the long run. The best alternative to the favorite appears to be Its a Ford. I know she was a disappointment in her first start off the claim for Rob Atras last time, but that was a completely different situation. It’s not unusual for the New York-bred maiden claiming races to come up stronger than their open counterparts, and that was certainly the case when you compare that last race to this affair. Last time she was part of a competitive 14-horse field, and she found herself in a bad position soon after the start when shuffled out to the back of the pack. That race was run during a time on the main track when it was especially difficult to close through kickback and this filly took the worst of it. All things considered, she actually did well to nearly get up for third and I believe that performance sets her up well for a better effort here.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,8,9
 

RACE 4: DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT (#4)
The $2 million two-year-old purchase Chestertown was bet down to 6-5 odds in his debut and just ran like a horse who needed that race. He was a little sluggish in the early going and steadily advanced on the turn, but ultimately hit his best stride too late. If he takes any kind of step forward he's going to beat this group. However, you’re probably going to be forced to take another very short price and there are other intriguing options in this field. True Grace would be a serious rival for Chestertown if he merely repeats his last race. He’s hard to love off his form prior to that, but sometimes these youngsters can improve quite a bit from start to start at the end of their 2-year-old seasons. It’s a good sign that Rosario stays with this runner instead of Hellbender, and Christophe Clement does well with maidens getting Lasix for the first time. I’m using him, but my top pick figures to be an even larger price. Dawn’s Early Light ships in from Kentucky for Danny Gargan, who claimed Tax out of a maiden event at Keeneland last fall before that runner went onto achieve Grade 2 success this year. This colt has a long way to come to match that feat but this could very well turn out to be another astute claim for this barn. He is a $285,000 yearling who was oddly dropped in for a tag without ever taking advantage of his New York-bred status. He now makes his first start against statebreds off a pair of decent TimeformUS Speed Figures and he’s got the pedigree to be a nice horse as a half-brother to multiple Grade 1-placed My Happy Face ($583,000). Furthermore, Gargan does exceptional work in this situation. Over the past year alone, he is a remarkable 9 for 17 (53%, $4.02 ROI) first off the claim, and he’s won with six of his last eight of those.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,7 with 3,6,7,9
 

RACE 5: BLUE SKIES FOREVER (#1)
Rally Cap figures to be a prohibitive favorite here as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. While he’s a standout from a class and speed figure standpoint, there are definitely some red flags here. It’s taken Linda Rice over 5 months to get back to the races after picking him up back in June, and he’s returning for a fraction of the price tag for which he had previously competed. I’ll use him defensively, but I typically want to take runners from this barn when they’re heading in the opposite direction. The problem with this race is that there just aren’t that many obvious alternatives. So, I want to get a bit creative and am taking a shot with Blue Skies Forever. I acknowledge that this runner’s form is a bit spotty, but I think he might appreciate this turnback in distance. This horse ran some speed figures over the summer that put him squarely in the mix against this field, and some might argue that improvement coincided with the stretch-out to route distances. That may be true, but I also think he’s just improved as a racehorse over time. His last two efforts aren’t quite as inspiring, but he did have a legitimate excuse last time when competing over a track that was strongly favoring horses racing on or near the lead. I also like that he’s getting a rider switch to the promising apprentice Julio Correa. He needs a little pace to close into and there isn’t much on paper, but things could definitely fall apart if Rally Cap doesn’t show up.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
 

RACE 6: BANKERS DAUGHTER (#10)
There are some intriguing first time starters to consider in this wide-open maiden special weight for New York-breds, including Makingcents, a daughter of stakes winner Mischief Maker for the powerful Jeremiah Englehart barn. However, I want to primarily focus on those with experience. The horse to beat is probably New York Supreme, who did everything but get her nose down on the wire in her initial start in November. She actually broke a step slowly in that 12-horse field but showed good speed thereafter to lead the field through swift opening fractions. She appeared to have opened up an insurmountable advantage past mid-stretch, but those early exertions took their toll in the final sixteenth. The slight cutback to 6 furlongs figures to suit her, but I wonder if last time was the right time for her, as she was apparently cranked up for her debut. I’m actually interested in a different horse out of that race. Bankers Daughter didn’t attract as much tote support as New York Supreme, but she actually ran fairly well to be fourth that day. Breaking from the outside post position, she advanced into contention on the turn and briefly loomed a threat before she got to lugging in through the lane. The addition of blinkers should help straighten her out for a barn that isn’t known for getting horses to win early. Though, Mike Miceli is having a fantastic season and I think this daughter of Central Banker can take a step forward. I would also use Dancing Kiki, who improved second time out when second to the promising Playtone. She gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, though I wonder if that’s a product of Dylan Davis electing to ride Bankers Daughter instead. I prefer those runners to Aubrey Tate, who has had her chances at short prices and is stepping up to meet a tougher field here.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,4,6,7,9,12
 

RACE 7: CONTROL GROUP (#6)
Turbulence has won his last two dirt starts by a combined 14 lengths, picking up right where he left off in March when returning two weeks ago for Linda Rice. And that’s a bit of a concern. Do we really want to trust this horse to run another big race on just 14 days’ rest after needing 8 to 9 months between each of his first three starts. Furthermore, while he won impressively last time, he had everything in his favor. He was racing over a track that has been kind to forwardly-placed runners and was allowed to lope along on the lead through pedestrian early fractions. Now he has to step up against a tougher field, stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and deal with added pace pressure. I don’t deny that he’s talented, but you’re supposed to take a shot against him here. Doups Point is a perfectly logical alternative, but he’s starting to run out of chances for me. While he got the job done three back, he’s disappointed at short prices more often than not. Furthermore, I’m not convinced that added distance is really his friend, as he’s shown a more effective late kick going one turn. Some might consider the horses exiting the November 8 race at this level, in which Singapore Trader ran well to be second. He also has some stamina questions to answer, but at least it appears that Todd Pletcher has gotten him back into top form. I’m most interested in a couple of horses that we know can handle the distance. One of those is Calculated Risker, who returns from a layoff for Ray Handal. He has to get a little faster to beat this field, but he fits the conditions well. I’m using him in exotics, but my top pick is Control Group. Consistency has been a major issue for this runner lately, but I can’t ignore the claim by Jason Servis. I acknowledge that Control Group has been in some live barns recently and his poor effort last time is definitely a concern. That said, he’s bounced back before and I think he can rebound again under these circumstances. Two things have always ben true about Control Group: he prefers two turns and he relishes a wet track. He’s definitely getting the first in his favor this time and he’s likely to get both. It’s a good sign that Irad Ortiz is back aboard after easing him last time and it’s also a positive indicator that he’s returning just 5 weeks after that last effort. The good version of Control Group will beat this field and I think there’s a strong chance we’ll see that horse again on Sunday.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4,7 with ALL
 

RACE 8: STAN THE MAN (#5)
Recruiting Ready is expected to inherit the favorite’s role in this redrawn Fall Highweight, also serving as the 132-pound top weight. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be vying for the early lead with Strike Power in a situation that is expected to favor the front-runners, and that’s a plausible scenario given that the others just aren’t quick enough to apply pressure early. Recruiting Ready will be tough to beat if he repeats his last race, in which he won by nearly four lengths in impressive fashion while earning a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The issue is that he doesn’t always produce that kind of effort and he’s typically vulnerable when he’s outrun to the early lead. He and Strike Power last faced off in the True North back in June and they both found themselves vulnerable to Catalina Cruiser in the late stages. If a similar scenario plays out here, I think Stan the Man could be the beneficiary as he returns from a layoff. This John Terranova trainee has always been capable of earning the types of speed figures that are necessary to compete at this level, but he hasn’t always put it all together against top company. Some may be concerned about the layoff, but he’s run well fresh in the past and he appears to be working exceptionally well coming into this return. The six-furlong distance may seem like just a starting point, but he’s run well going this short in the past and he’s never minded a wet track before. There is one notable new entrant in the redrawn version of this race, that being Nicodemus. While I acknowledge that he might possess just as much raw talon was any of the aforementioned runners, this feels like merely a prep for a horse who has proven that he's a bit better going longer distances than this.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 5 with 2,7 with 1,2,3,7