PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 6:   8 - 7 - 2 - 10
Race 7:   3 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   11 - 9 - 10 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: INDYAN PENNY (#6)

Cookie Crumbs (#5) is clearly the horse to beat from a speed figure and class standpoint. While she’s probably more of a turf-meant runner, she did run reasonably well in her lone dirt start two back. She also faced some tougher foes in her turf races, particularly on debut when she only finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind subsequent stakes winner Pleasant Passage. Yet she’s going to take money off that turf form for popular connections, I still can’t completely trust her at a short price. I have similar doubts about the other filly who could take money, Bella Michelle (#7). She also comes in with some of the best speed figures. However, it would have been nice to see her show a bit more when she dropped in for the tag last time. Perhaps she didn't like the slop, but there's some rain in the forecast for Sunday. Given my reservations with the favorites, I want to look in a different direction. Indyan Penny (#6) hasn’t done much running in either start, but she was competing at the open maiden special weight level. Those admittedly weren’t the toughest fields for the level, but she did at least pass some tired rivals on debut, and it’s fair to say she wanted no part of 9 furlongs last time. There were some reports that she had trained pretty well ahead of her debut, and I think there may be a bit more ability here than it seems. This is the first time that she’s competing in an appropriate spot, and she’s getting a rider upgrade to Eric Cancel while adding blinkers.

WIN: #6 Indyan Penny, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4: HONEY MONEY (#3)

I’ll be interested to see what we get from Spooky Road (#2), who has completely turned her career around since getting claimed by Linda Rice. Her last two victories have been huge improvements on her prior form. That last effort, in which she beat some good allowance horses with a career-best 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure, would probably put her in the winner’s circle again if she were to repeat it here. However, she’s making her fourth start in just 30 days, so one has to wonder if at some point the well will run dry. She’s also turning back to 7 furlongs in a race where others are more proficient sprinters. Her main rival appears to be Easy to Bless (#5), but that filly is returning from a 6-month layoff. At her best, she’s clearly the most talented horse in this race. She earned some massive numbers winning here last winter, especially in that 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure Xtra Heat triumph. She didn’t run well when last seen, but that came against much tougher company. Her connections may have also planned to give her a freshening prior to mounting another winter campaign. I respect her, but won’t be surprised if she needs a start. My top pick at a bigger price is Honey Money (#3). I know her recent form is pretty abysmal compared to where she was at last winter. Yet she’s been in barns that just don’t win at the same rate as her current trainer. She spent much of the last year with Bonnie Lucas, who just hasn’t been successful despite getting some decent stock this year. This is a major upgrade to Rob Atras, especially considering that she can now stable at Belmont after having to train outside of NYRA for Lucas, who doesn’t get stalls on this circuit. While even her best races might not measure up to those of the favorites, they have questions to answer and this mare figures to be a square price.

WIN: #3 Honey Money, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: LOCALLY OWNED (#3)

This 9-furlong starter allowance event becomes a little less interesting after scratches, particularly now that some of the speed has scratched out. Two of the main players, Outlier (#1) and No Salt (#9), faced off in a similar spot at this level back on Nov. 12. No Salt got the better of his rival that day, but Outlier arguably should have been elevated to victory by the stewards after sustaining a bump from No Salt in mid-stretch. They’re both contenders, but they each have a different set of questions to answer. Outlier has competed twice more since then, most recently 8 days ago in the Cigar Mile, where he didn’t actually run that badly. No Salt, on the other hand, comes in fresher, but has to prove that he can still run effective for Mike Miceli, who hadn’t had him for very long prior to the last race and has been in an uncharacteristic slump for the past half year or so. No Burn (#10) was helped most by scratches, as he now breaks from post 6 instead of 10. I'm skeptical of his chances here, as he comes off an uncharacteristically poor performance and may finally be going off form. With the withdrawal of Famished, I'm happy to scratch into Locally Owned (#3) as my top pick. This horse figures to appreciate stretching back out to two turns. He didn’t run well going a mile last time behind today’s rivals, but he’s much better over slightly longer trips. He also may be able to attain better forward position with some of the pace coming out of this race. The Tom Morley barn seems to be emerging from its fall slump, and this horse has had success for the stable in the past.

WIN: #3 Locally Owned, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8: SAFALOW’S MISSION (#2)

This is a difficult race to decipher, primarily due to the presence of a few intriguing Finger Lakes shippers who could take money. The most intriguing of those is Warriors Revenge (#6), who is seeking to take his 2022 record to 8 for 8 after having a magical run of success at Finger Lakes this season. However, he is stepping up significantly in class and should find some company on the front end as he looks to show speed. Perhaps the most dangerous of the Finger Lakes shippers is The Institute (#4), since he’s switching into the barn of Linda Rice, who has been having a ton of success at Aqueduct in recent weeks. He’s another who has met weaker out of town, but he’s been a dominant winner of his last couple of races. He’s a well-bred horse who may have just finally turned the corner. Yet I instead want to focus on some runners who have positive experience on this circuit. I think the horse to beat is recent maiden winner Today’s Flavor (#5), who comes off a commanding victory last month. He wasn’t beating the strongest field of maidens, but he sprinted home nicely after getting away with slow early splits. The main concern with him is the likely pace, since he figures to get pushed through faster early fractions this time. I think there’s a chance this races apart, which makes he want to consider two contenders. On the Hill (#3) merits a look as he attempts to rebound second off the layoff. I can easily forgive his last effort, as he was badly shut off at the start after breaking slowly. I’m still not sure if he can get back to his improved form from the summer, and the addition of blinkers suggests that they may not be looking to come from off the pace again. Therefore, my top pick is Safalow’s Mission (#2). He’s the less accomplished Linda Rice entrant in here, but I actually prefer him at a bigger price. I thought he finished strongly to break his maiden last May in a race that has proven to be a lot stronger than the speed figures indicate. Then he had little chance when he tried this condition in June, as that race was dominated up front and he raced out of position after getting shuffled back early. He figures to get pace to close into in this return from the layoff, and I don’t think this race is quite as tough as it might appear at first glance. Dismiss anything from the Linda Rice barn at your own risk right now.

WIN: #2 Safalow's Mission, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 3,5

RACE 9: ESCAPE MISSION (#11)

Morning line favorite Patrick the Great (#9) some promise at the start of his career, but has never really moved forward since then. He did run fairly well when he dropped in for this $25k tag back in July. However, his form completely fell apart at Saratoga last time. It doesn’t seem like a great sign that Linda Rice claimed him, then sent him to the bench for a few months, and now drops in class. However, Rice is 18 for 36 (50%, $2.82 ROI) first off the claim with maidens on dirt over the past 5 years. She adds blinkers and this horse has run some of his best races when he’s been aggressive. I’m not way against him, but I do think some others merit consideration. A few runners in this field exit the ninth race on Nov. 13 at this level. Chief Engineer (#5) and Eight and Sand (#10) achieved the best results on that occasion, finishing second and third. I prefer Eight and Sand this time, as he appears to have a bit more upside, where as Chief Engineer is a 17-start maiden who came back to regress against tougher last time. Yet I’m most interested in another horse from that Nov. 13 affair. Escape Mission (#11) took plenty of money to go off at 9-2 that day, but just looked like a horse who wasn’t quite cranked up for his debut. He broke a step slowly and then rushed up to chase that solid early pace, having to alter course slightly on the backstretch when getting keen between horses. He ultimately faded but certainly has a right to improve on that first run for Ray Handal, who is 9 for 40 (23%, $2.27 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years.

WIN: #11 Escape Mission, at 5-1 or greater