by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 10 - 5 - 9
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 7 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 2 - 11
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 9 - 8
Race 9: 6 - 15 - 12 - 10
RACE 1: INOUAINTALKINTOME (#6)
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite New York Banker, but she’s already had chances to win at this level and is coming in with form that’s pretty exposed. I do want to give her some credit for battling on to just miss after getting passed by the winner on the turn. However, that entire race was falling apart at the end. She has the speed to be dangerous from this outside draw, and she’s probably good enough to graduate at this level if she holds her form. I do prefer her to some others who could take money, such as Spill the Tea or Love’s Misery. Both have done their best work on turf and will attract attention merely due to the connections. If I’m going to take a horse switching surface, I want to shop for a bigger price. Inouaintalkintome fits the bill as she tries dirt in her third career start. She actually made up some ground in her debut sprinting at Saratoga after getting away to a troubled start. She didn’t run well going longer last time, but she also got involved in a fast early pace before retreating. Her pedigree is geared more towards turf on the dam’s side, but Bustin Stones in a versatile sire. Some will be deterred by the presence of the 10-pound apprentice rider, but at least that means you’re guaranteed a generous price.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 6,10
RACE 4: HAPPYLIFE (#8)
I find the favorites in this conditioned claimer to be pretty untrustworthy. A Ring Thing figures to take money off her recent turf speed figures, but I find her to be a dubious proposition on dirt. I don’t want to give her too much credit for finishing third in an off-the-turf sprint over the summer, and her prior dirt form is pretty poor. Scott Alaia is a bit more logical. She makes her second start off the claim for Mark Hennig after running into a much better filly in Matoula last time. She’s just dropping down to an appropriate level and she has the prior speed figures to contend. Yet this feels like a race that could produce a chaotic result so I want to get more creative. Happylife stretches out to a dirt route for the first time after trying a couple of one-mile races on turf recently. I’m not surprised that she hasn’t handled turf as a daughter of Runhappy, but I think she deserves a chance going long on dirt. Runhappy, contrary to what you might think has been winning with a strong 22% of his dirt route starters. She was a pretty convincing winner, albeit in a slow race, two back and may have some upside as she ships back into New York for an underrated barn.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,7
RACE 7: MATOULA (#5)
This starter allowance event looks pretty competitive, though it could feature a strong favorite in Exotic West. From a speed figure standpoint, she’s a standout in this race off her recent efforts at this level. However, all of her starts since the claim by Gary Sciacca have come on the turf. She has run comparable speed figures on dirt in the past, but the most recent of those was earned against weaker company in an off-the-turf event at Saratoga. If she can seamlessly transfer her turf form back to dirt she’s unlikely to lose this race. Yet I want to proceed with some caution if the price is short. There are some intriguing Kentucky shippers in the mix who could take some money. My Girl Lexi ran well to win against a weaker field at Indiana Downs two back, and she was since claimed out of a Churchill runner-up finish by Linda Rice. I respect the confidence being shown, and she has run all of her best races in dirt routes. Blushable perhaps has more upside as she moves up in class off a win at Churchill. However, I’m not thrilled with her prior form and would prefer to use her underneath. My top pick is Matoula. She looks a little cheaper than some of these, but she’s been in great recent form since returning from a layoff and stretching out to a mile. She upset a maiden field over a fast track two back, and then was a commanding winner in the slop last time, earning a pretty fast speed figure for the level. There’s a pretty murky pace scenario to this race, and I think she could work out a fair trip just on or near the lead once again. Furthermore, Mertkan Kantarmaci is an excellent 13 for 44 (30%, $2.50 ROI) first off the claim with horses coming off wins on the dirt over the past 5 years.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 3,4,7,8
RACE 8: CORE CONVICTION (#1)
Adare is arguably the horse to beat off his last couple of performances, but he’s not the most appealing wager given his 1 for 14 career record. He’s certainly lost his fair share of races at this level, but I don’t want to be too hard on him for settling for second in his last couple of defeats. He ran a winning race two back at Belmont and was just run down by the superior Miles D, who went on to win the Discovery in his next start. And last time he didn’t get the smoothest trip, checking in second behind Untreated, who also looks bound for stakes in the near future. His two main rivals hail from the Chad Brown stable. Winter Pool figures to take more money as he ships in from Kentucky. This horse ran well in both prior NYRA starts at Saratoga over the summer, just missing in July before winning a starter allowance in controversial fashion. The speed figures he received for those efforts suggest that he should be able to make the transition to this N1X level. He arguably was best racing for this condition at Keeneland last time, when the short stretch of that one-mile configuration worked against him in a slow-paced race. My one concern is that he may be better around two turns, and there isn’t a ton of pace in this field. I prefer Brown’s other runner Core Conviction. This gelding had trained well as a younger horse but was a little disappointing when he debuted on grass at Guflstream last winter. He returned from a long layoff last at Aqueduct and relished the switch to dirt, putting in a dominant performance. That was a tough day to make speed figures, but his TimeformUS Speed Figure of 119 is the highest in this field. That number got some confirmation when runner-up Waxman returned to win with an improved number. Chad Brown is 8 for 25 (32%, $2.21 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. This horse should be the controlling speed from the rail.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 5,9 with 5,6,8,9
RACE 9: GREY QUEST (#6)
Majestic Tiger figures to go favored in this finale after running reasonably well at a tougher level in his most recent dirt, his first time on dirt. We did see the fourth-place finisher from that race return to win here on Thursday in impressive fashion, so perhaps he merits respect off that recent effort. I’m still not totally convinced about the quality of that last race and wanted to look for some alternatives in this highly competitive affair. Jack’s Dream has a similar profile to the favorite, though perhaps hasn’t run quite as well in his lone dirt start. I wanted to get a little more creative than defaulting to these turf horses. Hangout is one to consider as he ships in from Finger Lakes and switches to David Donk. I can’t imagine that he’s been in this new barn for very long, but his recent form has improved and we’ve seen some Finger Lakes runners have success here this week. I would even throw in Tamburro's Sox now that he gets in off the also-eligible list. Yet I’m going in a different direction with a lightly raced option. Grey Quest made one start on this circuit earlier in the year, showing speed and fading at the tougher maiden special weight level. He was off for a long time after that, returning at Penn National last time. He again showed high early speed in a fast-paced race, but came up empty in the stretch. It’s reasonable to think he’ll be fitter with that start under his belt, and the race may be stronger than it appears. The runner-up, who dueled with him through those fast fractions, returned to win his next start with an improved speed figure. This gelding could get somewhat lost on the tote board in this large field, but I think he’s a threat to go gate-to-wire.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,10,12,13,15