by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 7 - 1A - 8
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 5:   9 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 11 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 2 - 4

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: THAT’S SPEIGHTFUL (#3)
This is a very confusing maiden race as there’s little positive recent form to analyze. I suppose the horse to beat is Communal, who could be a handful here if she runs back to her June debut at Belmont. While that was not a particularly strong maiden field, I thought she ran reasonably well for a Tom Albertrani firster, considering that those usually need a race to get going. I don’t know what happened at Saratoga next time. She did appear to be a little unsettled prior to the start, and she reacted very badly to kickback after getting away slowly. She’s a wild card today, but at least you know there is some talent here. I prefer her to Thread the Needle, who also comes off a significant layoff. This one ran fast enough in her first dirt start, but I don’t love her two subsequent efforts. Curiously, she is a New York-bred who is entered to run against open company, so perhaps it’s a good sign that they’re placing her aggressively. Some may gravitate towards the first-time starter, Hattie L, but I’m taking a negative view of this one. Given the dearth of success with 2-year-olds this year, Todd Pletcher has to be keeping the well-meant youngsters in Florida, so I view it as a negative that she’s shipping up to New York. Given my lack of confidence in the short prices, I’m taking a shot with That’s Speightful. Her debut on dirt back in late June was disappointing, but that came against a field of reasonable quality, and she actually didn’t run much slower than her main rivals in this spot. She was since switched to turf, which resulted in two more disappointing efforts. She possesses a versatile pedigree, so I don’t mind her getting back on this surface. There is plenty of rain in the forecast for Sunday, and she’s certainly bred to move up on a wet track as a daughter of Speightstown out of an A. P. Indy mare.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7
 

RACE 3: PRETENTIOUS (#6)
Fillet of Sole may go off as the favorite even after the scratch of the less heralded half of this entry. This horse has been a significant disappointment for Jason Servis, and I don't want to rely on him at a short price. Maimo looks like a threat to collect his second win in a row. He was beating a seemingly weaker open claiming field in an off-the-turf race last time, but he earned a competitive speed figure for that victory. Both of his New York starts for Ray Handal have been solid, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he may be in a situation to control the pace. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Pretentious. This is not the type of horse that I would usually pick, but I think you have to take notice when certain barns start to get hot. Mertkan Kantarmaci has only started five horses in the past month, but four of those have run significantly better than their other recent efforts. He got old warrior Doyouknowsomething to run easily the best race of his campaign in late November, and earlier this week he sent out an entry that filled out an exacta, as winner Reed Kan improved on his form for Jason Servis. Pretentious has already made strides since getting into this new barn, apparently appreciating the stretch-out to a mile. He had little chance two back in a race dominated by speed, and then last time he again closed willingly into slow early fractions while arguably facing a tougher field. If he takes another step forward, I think he’ll be a handful.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7,8
 

RACE 6: PLAYWRIGHT (#3)
Expert is likely to attract plenty of support as he makes his first start off the claim for Jason Servis and Michael Dubb. This horse ran a competitive speed figure for his prior connections when winning an N2L claiming event by 6 lengths last time out, but that victory came going 9 furlongs. The cutback to a one-turn mile seems like a minor negative, but Jason Servis has been known to inject more speed into runners like this. I’m using him, but I think he could get overbet in this spot, and there are others coming into this race in solid form. A wild card in this field is Starship Zeus, who has recorded a string of speed figures that would beat this field. However, he is difficult to trust as he makes his first start in 9 months. Even when he was at his best, he was never a horse that liked to win races and his running style tends to put him at a disadvantage in races that lack pace. I’m using him defensively, but I could never pick him on top. My top pick is Playwright, who ran well at a similar level going 7 furlongs last time. He arguably could have won that race had he not gotten into trouble on the far turn. Attempting to move up between horses, he got caught in a tight spot and clipped heels. Manny Franco did well to stay in the saddle, and got him to rally again for second. I like the slight stretch-out to a mile, which has always been his best distance. The Danny Gargan barn has been doing quite well in recent weeks, and I think he has this horse in good form right now. Furthermore, he should not be hindered by rain in the forecast as a son of the slop-loving Super Saver.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5,6,7
 

RACE 7: GIO D’ORO (#7)
Uncle Sigh seems almost too logical in this spot. Chris Englehart tried a series of tougher spots for him after initially claiming him back in March, and he actually ran quite well in many of those races. With the lone exception of his poor effort at Saratoga in September, any of his other races for Repole Stable would beat this field. He’s now been switched into Rudy Rodriguez’s care, which is seemingly a positive move. However, I find it curious that the new barn is dropping him down the class ladder in spite of his solid form. I don’t have a strong argument against anyone who thinks that he’s just the class of this field, but I want to look elsewhere given a short price on him. J J’s Dreaming is one of the few horses in this field that has run fast enough to challenge the good version of Uncle Sigh, but his last race has to be some concern, especially since it came over a sloppy track, which he is likely to encounter once again here. This horse got very good over the spring and summer, but I was also disappointed by his loss two back and I wonder if he’s starting to head in the wrong direction. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be forwardly placed in this race, but I think he’s likely to stalk Gio d’Oro, who should play out as the controlling speed. Brad Cox experimented by trying him on the turf in his first start back off the layoff last time, and I thought he ran well. While he did get a great trip through soft fractions, his performance suggests that he’s likely moved forward since last winter. I find it encouraging that he’s run well over wet tracks before, and Eric Cancel has been riding speed horses very well in recent months. If this gelding gets in front of these early, he may just forget to stop.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 2,3,4,10
 

RACE 8: BLINDWILLIE MCTELL (#6)
A few of the main players in this race are exiting the Notebook in late November. Kosciuszko was a bit of a disappointment as the 8-5 second choice, as he was outdueled into the stretch and had to settle for third. That said, he still earned a respectable speed figure, backing up the improved form that he had displayed in his off-the-turf maiden win at Belmont. I think he’s the horse to beat this time, but he will have to contend with some company on the front end, as the Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace. Thorny Tale and Bustin Hoffman also exit the Notebook, but were not nearly as competitive as Kosciuszko. Thorny Tale chased outside and faded over a muddy track and may not be aided by rain in the forecast again. You could say the same for Bustin Hoffman, who threw in his first poor effort last time after a pair of stakes placings at Belmont. I don’t fully trust any of the aforementioned runners, so I want to look elsewhere. There are a few maidens entered in this field, and one of them has a right to have a major say in the outcome of this race. Blindwillie McTell showed promise in his debut for Linda Rice, and I love the aggressive placement in his second start. While a few of these horses are coming out of stakes company, I don’t think any horse in this field has faced a rival as talented as Le General, who beat Blindwillie McTell last time. That rival returned to beat winners impressively next time out, and third-place finisher Kaden’s Courage, who also returns in this race, returned to win with a much faster speed figure. Linda Rice has fantastic stats in this situation. Over the past five years, she is 20 for 49 (41 percent, $3.26 ROI) with second time starting maidens in dirt sprints at Aqueduct.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5,11
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5,11 with 3,4,5,11,12