by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 9 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 6 - 4 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 9 - 6
RACE 1: AMERICAN LINCOLN (#1)
There are just three horses with somewhat positive dirt experience in this six-horse field. Of those, Labeq is likely to go off at the shortest price, and
he’s certainly one that you need to respect. Kiaran McLaughlin has very strong numbers with 2-year-old maidens stretching out in distance in their
second starts on dirt. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 17 (35 percent, $3.38 ROI) with that move. The problem with Labeq is that he just didn’t run
that well in his first start. That said, he may not be facing runners of much quality here. Of the second-time starters, I actually prefer Bridey’s Kitten.
This horse went seven furlongs in his debut, but has pedigree to stretch out on the dam’s side. Furthermore, he was facing one of the toughest
maiden fields that we saw assembled in New York all year when finishing behind the highly regarded Montauk in that first start. Now he gets Lasix.
He’s one that I will use, but my top selection is American Lincoln. While this horse has run exclusively on turf through his first three starts, Linda Rice
actually has very good numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, she is 7 for 20 (35 percent, $2.85 ROI) with maidens going from turf to
scheduled dirt routes. American Lincoln has been steadily improving, and actually ran better than it seems last time after making a wide run around
the far turn and getting caught in traffic late. He’s bred to handle dirt as a son of Street Sense. His dam was best routing on dirt, and she has thrown
a half-sister that won on dirt.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
RACE 4: NYROMANIAC (#7)
Perhaps I’m making this race too complicated, because Go Kelly Go is very much the horse to beat and a deserving short price. She’s simply run
faster than the other runners with dirt experience, and she may be facing an easier field than the one she met last time. However, she almost seems
too obvious, and horses like this often get bet down to unreasonably short prices. Therefore, I want to take a small shot against her with a mildly
intriguing longshot. Nyromaniac has only made one start, and it came sprinting on turf against maiden special weight company. That day, she rushed
up to show brief speed from her outside post position before fading against a much better field than the one she meets today. While there is mostly
turf pedigree on her dam’s side, she’s a daughter of dirt influence Posse, so it’s reasonable to entertain the notion that she might actually be a dirt
horse. Now she’s getting a very positive rider switch to Joshua Navarro for a trainer that can certainly connect with longshots from time to time.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,8
RACE 6: BEAR CLAUSE (#9)
Big Zip is the kind of runner that must be used on your tickets because he is indeed a viable win candidate, but he’s just very hard to trust. This horse
put forth an unbelievable performance back on January 1, but has yet to come anywhere close to that form in three starts since. He did finally return
to the winner’s circle last time with an effort that could probably beat this field, but he’s hardly been one to put similar races back-to-back. I’m
taking a shot against him with Bear Clause, who finished just behind the favorite the last time they met on November 25. However, Bear Clause did
not get the best of trips that day as he had to rally through tight quarters down on the inside after getting taken too far off the pace early. He
followed that up with a solid run against tougher New York-bred claimers last time, and now he drops back into a more realistic spot.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,7,8
RACE 7: FORMAL START (#6)
When Terry O Geri is the clear and obvious choice on the morning line, you can be reasonably sure that this is a relatively weak N1X allowance field.
Terry O Geri has had his chances at this level, and just routinely fails to get the job done. It’s true that he’s often been beaten by better horses, but
he’s not the kind of runner that I want to bet as a heavy favorite. The problem with this race is that, beyond him, the alternatives all have some
flaws. That said, I think this is the kind of race that could yield an odd result, which is why I’m picking Formal Start. If Terry O Geri runs his best race,
Formal Start probably cannot beat him. However, I’m reasonably confident that this longshot will outrun his odds here. Earlier this year, he was
running somewhat competitively at this level before going off form over the summer. He returned this fall and has obviously needed a race or two
to get fit. However, his last effort was better than it seems. That was a race that had a distinct outside flow to it, as horses came rallying down the
center of the racetrack. Meanwhile, Formal Start had been guided to the rail and lost momentum while trying to split tiring runners late. If he takes
another step forward here, he’s right in line with all of the other runners outside of the favorite. Furthermore, I think he’ll appreciate the stretch-out
to seven furlongs.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Box: 4,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3,5,7,8 with 6