by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 9 - 1
Race 6: 7 - 10 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 12 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 11 - 1
Race 10: 8 - 6 - 7 - 1
(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)
RACE 2: DONTBELATE (#2)
I imagine that Hagler (#1) will take some money on the drop in class, but I don’t want this horse going a mile. He’s tried to stretch out a few times in his career and the results have been disappointing. Furthermore, he just appears to have lost the early speed that he once possessed, which could complicate his task from this rail post position. A horse like Last Minute Mario (#4) just seems naturally faster than Hagler at this stage of his career. The drop in class may wake him up, but I’m skeptical at a short price. Forever Wicked (#7) could also take some money, but it’s hard to get past this 2 for 45 lifetime mark. The Randi Persaud barn has been having some success lately, but I have my doubts about the pace scenario working in this runner’s favor. That’s also a concern for Jade’s Dream (#3), who would appreciate a strong gallop up front. He got badly outrun in the early stages going 6 1/2 furlongs last time, but he should be better suited to this one-mile trip. It also appears that he may be rounding back into form for Jacobson. My top pick is Dontbelate (#2). I expect this gelding to work out the right trip, either on the lead or stalking longshot Last Minute Mario. He seems to have taken a step forward since getting claimed by Ten Strike and Michelle Giangiulio. I thought he battled gamely behind the improved Lord Gatling two back, and last time he pressed a pretty quick pace before fading. Yet he still finishing ahead of his other pace rivals in a race dominated by closers. He figures to be a square price again with Heman Harkie aboard, despite the fact that he’s ridden him well.
WIN: #2 Dontbelate, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 3
RACE 3: R GIRL FAITH (#2)
There isn’t much reliable form in this $25k conditioned claimer. I had trouble endorsing short prices who still have a lot to prove. Freudian (#7) is arguably the horse to beat if able to produce her best form, but that’s a serious question mark after she ran so poorly in her first start on this circuit. I suppose it’s a good sign that she’s moving up in class off the Rob Falcone claim, but I still have questions. I’m a little less skeptical of Shigeko (#6), who could also attract some support here. At least her prior dirt races came when she was a 2-year-old, so she naturally has more upside. While she has earned her best speed figures on turf, I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s more of a dirt horse, and she’s placed appropriately by the connections. I just want to get a little more creative with a runner who could get overlooked at a bigger price. Some may consider Run Devil (#3) in her second start off the layoff after finishing third at this level last time. Yet I didn’t think she ran much better than R Girl Faith (#2), who figures to be a bigger price. R Girl Faith hasn’t been particularly competitive in her dirt starts, but I do think she’s shown some subtle signs of progress. She was glued to the rail when trying to rally two back, but never stopped trying despite facing a tougher field for this level. Then last time she was moving up nicely on the turn before having to alter course at the quarter pole. She never stopped trying in the lane, but ultimately flattened out. I don’t mind her stretching back out to a mile, and she’s going to get ignored for these low-profile connections.
WIN: #2 R Girl Faith, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 4: IT’S MANDATORY (#4)
This race gets a little easier with the scratch of morning line favorite American Power. Yet I'm still skeptical of the horse who figures to inherit favoritism, Its All Relevant (#8). This 9-year-old is probably making his final start on the NYRA circuit, since he won’t be permitted to compete here after Dec. 31 with the restrictions on 10-year-old and older horses. He did battle gamely in the mud last time, but that was a weaker field than this, despite the higher claiming price. I'm trying to beat him with It’s Mandatory (#4). He’s another runner coming in off a poor effort, but I don’t want to put too much stock in that last race. Joel Rosario showed little interest in motivating him, just letting him drop out of contention on the turn before easing him through the lane. He had previously been in solid form at Finger Lakes, and he’s also run well on this circuit in the past. Some may be deterred by the drop off the claim by Linda Rice, but she is an outstanding 12 for 23 (52%, $2.53 ROI) first off the claim with horses dropping in price by 50% or more on dirt over the past 5 years. She’s also 6 for 9 (67%, $4.06 ROI) at Aqueduct within that sample. I think this guy can be effective with a more aggressive ride from Lezcano.
WIN: #4 It's Mandatory, at 8-5 or greater
RACE 5: WATASHA (#8)
Curlin’s Wisdom (#9) is clearly the one to beat in this N1X allowance affair, which is a split division of today’s eighth race. He has really blossomed this fall for Linda Rice, finishing in the exacta in each of his last 5 starts, including a 3-race winning streak as he skipped through his New York-bred allowance conditions. He put forth one of his finest efforts two back when he just missed in the Empire Classic, and he maintained solid form last time despite settling for second at this level. However, I am a little concerned about the turnback in distance to a mile. He seems to have achieved his best results since he stretched out to 9 furlongs, making full use of his ample stamina. It’s unclear if he can be as effective over this shorter distance, and there are some worthy rivals in this spot. The biggest wild card is Up to the Mark (#6), who will seek to get back on track after a couple of disappointing efforts. I won’t be too hard on him for his 9-furlong loss two back when he was facing a better field for this level and chased an honest pace. Yet he didn’t have an apparent excuse last time when he was uncharacteristically sluggish on the turnback to 7 furlongs. I do get a little worried when these Todd Pletcher runners lose their early speed, but this colt clearly has the ability to beat a field like this with his good effort. I just want to go in a different direction with another lightly raced option. Watasha (#8) makes his first start off an auction purchase for $120k and trainer switch to Bill Mott after starting his career with Chad Brown. He took a couple of races to figure things out, but he seemed to put it all together when he returned from a layoff this fall, showing improved early speed to dominate a field of maidens over this track. He was also flattered when runner-up Southern Flag came back to win with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He disappointed when he stepped up to this level last time, but the trip just didn’t work out. He broke a step slowly and was bumped soon after the start, relegating him to the back of the pack. He made a decent move into contention on the far turn, but was always out of position. I like this stretch-out to a mile, since he can make better use of his tactical speed from this outside post position. He’s certainly bred to go this far, as a half-brother to 29-time dirt route winner Our Caravan and marathon runner Muralist.
WIN: #8 Watasha, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8: GULFSTREAM WAY (#2)
Likely favorite Money Supply (#4) has arguably been a bit of a disappointment since winning that debut so impressively, closing with a rush from off the pace. While he hasn’t won since then, he has consistently performed well in his last few starts at this level. He got the wrong trip at Churchill Downs two back when encountering significant traffic trouble, and returned from a brief layoff last time to follow home the talented but enigmatic Winit. A repeat of that performance may get the job done here, but it’s not as if he has some huge edge for a horse that could be a pretty short price. I’m trying to beat him with Gulfstream Way (#2). This Kentucky shipper was in great form when he got claimed for $50k earlier this year, and maintained that form for the Chris Hartman barn. Since winning two races in a row, he’s been unable to do better than garner minor awards at this N1X allowance level. And some might view his first start for the Brad Cox stable last time as a step in the wrong direction. However, that was a seriously tough spot, as winner Seal Beach earned a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and other also-rans in that field had strong form coming in. I also didn’t think he got the best ride that day, as Florent Geroux squandered an opportunity to secure the front end, riding his horse conservatively down the backstretch. I would like to see Kendrick Carmouche get more aggressive here, since there isn’t that much pace signed on. One other runner that I would want to use at a bigger price is Luni Sima (#9). It’s possible that his best days are behind him, as he didn’t run well last time. Yet now he’s stretching out to a more appropriate distance, and he didn’t get the best ride when he tried this level going a mile two back.
WIN: #2 Gulfstream Way, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,9
RACE 9: NANTASKET BEACH (#4)
This oversubscribed starter allowance affair is arguably the most interesting race on the card. The 9-furlong distance complicates the tasks of a few contenders drawn towards the outside, since there isn’t much of a run into that clubhouse turn. That’s the biggest problem for Tonal Impact (#11), who is seeking his fourth win in a row off the Linda Rice claim. This runner is capable of producing a strong finish, and has been beating progressively tougher competition over his last few starts. Linda Rice is 27 for 80 (34%, $2.10 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct over the past 5 years, but the horse is exiting some pretty strong barns in Kentucky. I acknowledge he’s a contender, but felt that better value could be found elsewhere. Mo Rewards (#1) exitS a $40k conditioned claimer on Nov. 13. He stumbled badly at the start and did make a nice move to get back into contention before settling for third. Yet I still believe he’s more of a turf horse and question this stretch-out in distance. I’m intrigued by two runners who are based at other circuits. Gut Feeling (#3) was a game winner of a maiden claimer back in September at Churchill Downs. That 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned is better than any of Tonal Impact’s recent numbers, and he was flattered when runner-up Floki’s Flight came back to win two in a row with ascending speed figures. I think he’s dangerous making his first start off the claim for JKX Racing. My top pick is Nantasket Beach (#4), who is drawn just to his outside. It’s possible that this gelding is simply a turf horse, as he has improved since getting on that surface. Yet there’s plenty of dirt in his pedigree, as his Holy Bull-sired dam is a half-sister to Preakness winner Red Bullet. He handled dirt in his career debut, and I suspect he’s just improved overall since being gelded and stretching out in distance. He finished powerfully over soft turf to break his maiden two back, and ran surprisingly well, albeit with a great trip, in the Hill Prince last time. I think Chuck Lawrence has found a good spot for him to try this surface, where he can make use of his stamina. He drew a favorable post position and figures to be a square price.
WIN: #4 Nantasket Beach, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 3