by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 2B - 4
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   7 - 1A - 5 - 8
Race 5:   6 - 7 - 11 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 1 - 13 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: VIENNA CODE (#3)
Honey Money could go favored here, since her recent speed figures are superior to this field and she’s already run reasonably well at this level. Yet the big question is the stretch-out, as she failed to handle a mile in her only other start going this far. She’s also coming back in just 8 days, and has to deal with the early speed of Makingcents. That rival has faced significantly tougher company in her two races this year, but she’s also done very little running each time. It’s troublesome that she’s needed so much time between starts this year, but at least now she’s reunited with regular rider Luis Saez and stretching out to her favorite distance. That said, I’m more interested in some bigger prices. Epona’s Dream got completely dismissed on the tote board last time but picked up the pieces are lagging behind early, running by them all in the stretch. That wasn't the strongest N1X field, but she earned a respectable speed figure for the performance. If you throw out her turf races, she’s actually shown pretty steady progression in her speed figures on dirt. She needs some pace ahead of her once again, but maybe she's just finally figuring things out at the end of her 3-year-old season. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Vienna Code, who figures to be the best price of the contenders. She has really come to hand this season, especially since returning from a layoff this fall. She caused an upset when she won going this distance back in October, and she’s faced tougher company in each of her last two starts. She got in over her head in the Empire Distaff, but put in a good effort against open company last time. She’s always a fair price due to the low-profile connections, and her form makes her a major player.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,7
 

RACE 6: EMILIA’S MOON (#4)
Maiden Beauty could go favored here as she drops back down in class after trying tougher company. Her Empire Distaff performance wasn’t quite as bad as the result would indicate, since she chased a fast pace that fell apart while facing a pretty strong field of NY-breds. She’s arguably the horse to beat off her 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure two back, though do note that she was riding a rail bias on that occasion. She now has to deal with the early speed of Finger Lakes shipper Pioneer of the Sky, as well as some others. She’s a major player here, but I wonder if she’ll take too much money off that September performance. Battle Bling and Vegas Weekend may also attract some support going out for dangerous barns. They faced off in a $50k claimer at Saratoga over the summer, when both were entered for turf in a race that was rained off the grass. I find it a little odd that Battle Bling hasn’t improved at all off the claim for Danny Gargan, and this is the first time she’s entered for dirt. Vegas Weekend took advantage of a weak field at this level two back and I think she’s vulnerable here. She exits the Comely, but I prefer Hybrid Eclipse out of that race. She was out of position throughout and can rebound here if getting back to her best efforts from the summer. My top pick is Emilia’s Moon. She's a perfect fit for this race off her efforts two and three back. That Saratoga performance in August was particularly strong, as she was facing a tougher field at this level than the one she meets today. Some will be deterred by that most recent loss as the 3-2 favorite, but note that she veered out badly leaving the gate – essentially taking a right hand turn. She found herself out of position behind a slow pace in a race wired on the front end. I expect her to rebound here, especially if she manages to get back on a fast track.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 1,2,5,6,7
 

RACE 7: DRAFTED (#4)
It was reported earlier this week by DRF’s David Grening that morning-line favorite Wondrwherecraigis will be scratched out of this Gravesend due to a foot issue. That opens up a race that had looked pretty straightforward prior to the defection. The pace scenario gets altered with that favorite coming out, but there still figures to be an honest pace up front given the presence of Chateau. This Rob Atras trainee has one way to run, and that’s to blast off to the front end and try to bottom out the field. Jaxon Traveler figures to be chasing and may be the one to inherit the lead if Chateau throws in the towel. They’re the two runners to catch, but there are some intriguing closers who will trying to chase them down. Majestic Dunhill is a wild card as he returns from a long layoff for George Weaver. This barn doesn’t have great stats off layoffs of this type and Majestic Dunhill can be somewhat unreliable. He did get very good in the fall of 2020, but that was when Joel Rosario was riding him more aggressively. It’s unclear if he still possesses that same tactical speed. I’m giving a shot to Drafted. I know he hasn’t had any success in his prior stakes attempts, but he’s run deceptively well in a few recent starts. Drafted got caught in significant traffic when he was trying to rally off the layoff on Oct. 1 in a race that he arguably could have won. He was then caught behind a slow pace in the Bold Ruler and again last time in that November optional claimer. He actually ran quite well in that last start, as he closed into those moderate fractions behind the talented Cost Basis. I don’t think this is the strongest field with the favorite out, and Drafted should finally get some pace with Chateau in the mix.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6
 

RACE 8: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#2)
Mystic Night is arguably the horse to beat as he steps up to make his stakes debut in the Queens County. He looked like he was destined for races like this when he won an allowance race here last March, but he hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since then despite going favored in his three subsequent starts. While he’s run reasonably well in those races, I haven’t been thrilled with the way he’s finished. He had dead aim on the leaders in his losses at Belmont and Saratoga and just couldn’t get the job done. I was especially disappointed in his effort two back when he got a great trip sitting just off a slow pace and was nearly passed from behind by the rallying You’re to Blame. He can win here stretching back out, but I didn’t need him at a short price. Empty Tomb scares me as a wire-to-wire threat. This 5-year-old can be pretty unreliable at times, but he got back into top form for Rob Falcone last time, leading all the way going the one-turn mile. That optional claimer came up very fast, but now he has to stretch out. He’s never won going this 1 1/8 miles distance, but he’s run well going this far on a few occasions. I’m not thrilled with the idea of taking him as the second-choice after he was 22-1 last time, but he can obviously win. My top pick is Backsideofthemoon, who is seeking his second consecutive victory in the Queens County. He obviously got a little lucky in this race last year, when he beat the gate at the start and got to control the pace on a gold rail. His form since then has been a little spotty, but he’s recently gotten back into strong form for the Pat Reynolds barn. He ran very well when he nearly beat You’re to Blame at Belmont three back and then lost all chance at the start last time in a race controlled on the front end by Empty Tomb. He’s been successful going 1 1/8 miles before, so I like the stretch-out and Jose Lezcano usually gives him a more aggressive ride than some other jocks. He’s also the sentimental pick as a longtime favorite of mine. This is likely the last race of his career, as he’s about to age out of NYRA competition when he turns 10-years-old in January.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 2 with 6,8 with 1,3,4,6,8
 

RACE 9: OLIVER’S FORTUNE (#7)
This maiden claiming finale looks absolutely wide open, as you can make a case for many contenders in this 13-runner field. And it doesn't get much easier after the defection of morning-line favorite Rush to Honor. Got the Gold and Lucky Brody have both run respectably against maiden special weight fields and now drop in class on the dirt. I’m not convinced that Got the Gold really wants to go this far, but the distance is obviously fine for Lucky Brody. That Orlando Noda trainee ran quite well behind Big Castle and Blitz to Win two back and would be awfully tough with a repeat of that performance. Yet I have to go back to Oliver’s Fortune, who may be the best price of any of these. I had been interested in this horse last time despite some lackluster Finger Lakes form because Ralph D’Alessandro routinely gets runners to improve when they come to Aqueduct in the winter. He certainly took that step forward when he ran here last week, but didn’t get the best ride. Eric Cancel wasn’t that aggressive coming out of the gate and got him in a pocket early. The race then developed outside of him, and he got badly shuffled back heading around the far turn. He probably wasn’t beating the runaway winner, but he would have made it much closer without that trouble. He’s now coming back in just 9 days against a tougher field, but he’s getting a positive rider switch to Javier Castellano.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,8,12,13