by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 6 - 10
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 5: 9 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 10 - 6
RACE 1: I’M AN OCALA DUDE (#6)
This is the first of many perplexing races on this Sunday card. It’s hard to have much faith in any of the likely short prices given the combination of dropdowns and layoffs. I suppose Javelin is the horse to beat given his overall consistency and a string of speed figures that would win most races at this level. However, he hasn’t been seen in exactly 6 months and he’s now dropping down to the lowest level of his career. His two prior starts off shorter layoffs have been lackluster. I have to use him, but he’s difficult to trust. The horse that I’m most strongly against is Devine Entry. This horse has run well on dirt only at Laurel and it’s never a good sign when Linda Rice is dropping horses in class so drastically. Baseline would be more appealing if not for his dull effort on Nov. 17, which leads me to believe that 6 furlongs may just be too short for him. Given my reservations about the aforementioned contenders, I’m taking a shot with I’m an Ocala Dude. He, too, has his flaws, but at least Michelle Nevin has encouraging numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 11 for 22 (50 percent, $3.08 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more in dirt sprints. I’m an Ocala Dude is returning from the layoff as a new gelding, and he has back form that would make him a major player in this race. He obviously wasn’t in great form over the summer, but at least he handled this Aqueduct surface last winter, running all of his best career races over this strip. I like the outside post position for him given the murky pace scenario.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
RACE 5: FIGHT ON LUCY (#9)
Midnitesalright is likely to go off as a strong favorite in this race after threatening to break through at this level last time, only to be run down by her stablemate. There is rain in the Sunday morning forecast, and she clearly handles a sloppy track. None of the other fillies with experience appear to be quite as fast as her early, so she may just be able to lead these throughout over going that she appreciates. I’m definitely using her prominently, but she’s just so obvious, and then types of runners often end up getting overbet. Looking purely at speed figures, she’s not significantly faster than one of her main rivals, Fight On Lucy. This Pat Kelly-trained filly is going to be a much more enticing price, and I think she has a legitimate chance to upset the favorite. Despite running in off-the-turf races in both of her starts thus far, she’s actually faced some decent fields. Her debut race in October came up pretty fast, and then last time I thought she ran deceptively well behind the promising filly Forever Changed. A couple of horses that finished behind her that day have already returned to run well. I also think that Fight On Lucy may benefit significantly from the addition of blinkers this time. She was pretty green in her last race, as she was trying to lug in throughout the stretch, and this equipment change could correct that. At bigger prices, I also want to consider some of the first-time starters. The one that I find most intriguing is longshot Semaya, as she goes out for the sneaky Dennis Lalman, who won with a first-time starter at a big price last winter. Despite selling for a cheap price, she has pedigree to be a runner.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,6,7,11
RACE 7: WINE NOT (#3)
This allowance race is the highlight of the card. The horse to beat is probably Business Cycle off his recent maiden victory over this strip. While it took him five tries to break through with his first win, he’s run competitive speed figures in all of his races and has kept decent company throughout his brief career. He got an unexpected challenge from longshot Zealous in the stretch last time, but that runner returned to validate his performance with a runner-up finish in a fast maiden race earlier this week. The one knock against Business Cycle is the anticipated short price. I’m not willing to bet him as the favorite, especially considering Chad Brown’s mediocre record with these types. Over the past five years, Brown is just 4 for 18 ($1.10 ROI) with 4-year-old and older last-out maiden winners on the dirt. One of his main rivals is Aveenu Malcainu, who has been an underachiever for Jeremiah Englehart. He finally got back to the winner’s circle two back at Belmont, but the time of that race has been disputed, and I’m still waiting to see him validate that career-best speed figure. I’m trying to beat these horses with Wine Not, who should be around the second or third choice in this field. The main knock against this gelding is that he so rarely wins, having collected his last victory in July 2017. However, he’s been entered in some tough spots this year, and I feel that he’s actually been in the best form of his career since the early summer. He ran a strong race to be a close fourth in the Empire Classic two back, and then last time he actually ran on well to be third despite getting very little pace to close into on Nov. 4. I thought he ran much better than today’s rival Barahin on that occasion, and I think Wine Not is more likely to appreciate this slight stretch-out. I’ve always felt that a one-turn mile is best for him, and he’s so rarely focused on races going this exact distance.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,5,6,7