by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 9 - 10 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 9 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 5: 8 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 11 - 9
Race 9: 5 - 6 - 8 - 2
Race 10: 14 - 2 - 6 - 13
RACE 1: TEETOTALER (#5)
The most experienced member of this field, Chasing Cara, is undoubtedly the horse to beat as she drops back into maiden company after contesting stakes. To her credit, she’s improved in recent starts despite racing against tougher competition. She overcame a slow start to get up for third in the Joseph A. Gimma, and proved that performance was no fluke in the Maid of the Mist, when she again finished third after contesting an honest pace. The winner of that race, Laobanonaprayer, returned to win again impressively earlier this month. Stretching back out to a mile should help, and she has the tactical speed to control this affair from the outset. I’m taking a shot against her with a more lightly raced rival, but this filly merits respect. My top pick is second time starter Teetotaler. This $500k yearling purchase just never looked comfortable in her debut. She broke a step slowly and found herself at the back of the pack taking a ton of kickback, which was an issue on the main track during that first week in November. She never commenced a rally, but Carmouche was just easing up on her late. That's been a productive race, as fourth-place finisher Out First returned to win with a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and the 9th-place finisher won a maiden claimer next out. She obviously has a right to do better stretching out as a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Artemis Agrotera, making her a half-sister to 9-furlong Albany winner Chestertown. I would expect her to show more speed this time with blinkers added. She’s my top pick, but there are other inexperienced fillies to consider. Quiet Type switches to dirt with more of a main track pedigree, and Home for Christmas also tries dirt for the first time for Christophe Clement, who has strong statistics with this move.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,7,8,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 7,8,10
RACE 2: CARAMOCHA (#7)
Likely favorite Irish Constitution put in an excellent effort to win her debut at Saratoga, gamely running down Party At Page’s in a stretch-long duel. She was flattered when both that filly and third-place finisher Samborella returned to win stakes in their next few starts. Yet she was then thrown to the wolves in the Spinaway and was just no match for likely two-year-old filly champion Vequist. She was much more effective back in with state-breds last time, nearly hanging on for the victory after setting a slow pace. While she’ll have to contend with a faster early tempo here, 6 furlongs is probably a better distance for her, and she seems like the one to beat. A couple of her main rivals are stepping up to face winners for the first time. One of those is Secret Love, who was visually impressive first time out at Belmont. However, she defeated a pretty weak field that day and is returning from a 3-month layoff here. I prefer the other debut winner Caramocha. This filly paid a whopping $201 to win first time out when totally ignored on the tote board. Yet you never would have guessed she was that kind of longshot watching the race, as she was in command throughout and drew off authoritatively against what appeared to be a solid field. While she does go out for low-profile connections, she has the pedigree to be a runner. A 100k daughter of Pioneerof the Nile, she’s a half-sister to solid allowance runner Thirst for Glory and her dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Artemis Agrotera. She was entered in the Grade 2 Demoiselle before connections wisely chose this spot instead, and she drew a great outside post position.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,6
RACE 4: RUGGED UNION (#9)
Nepotism could go off as the slight favorite as he stretches out in his second start for Jonathan Thomas. His debut is worth watching, as the trip was more uncomfortable than the running line would suggest. He broke with the field, but was slow into stride and had to be hustled while dropping back. Then he suddenly responded to that pressure around the half-mile pole, and he traveled keenly on the turn, ultimately getting pushed out into the 5-path at the quarter pole. He finished up decently in the lane and he’s supposed to have no issue with this added ground The one problem is that he may be exiting a weak race for the level, and this is a stronger field. Repo Rocks has much more experience as he makes his sixth career start. Yet he has steadily improved with racing and his last effort at Churchill Downs was quite good. I’m not totally convinced that he gets better with added ground, but he’s a contender nonetheless. Todd Pletcher has entered a pair of runners, of which Overtook has the more obvious credentials. This $1 million son of Grade 1 winner Got Lucky showed some promise when closing belatedly in his debut, but he failed to take a step forward on the stretch-out last time. I think the jury’s still out regarding his overall ability, but I won’t be surprised if he takes a step forward. Yet I’m more interested in Pletcher’s other runner Rugged Union. This colt is the real wild card in this field. A $195k auction purchase, he took a ton of money in his debut but looked completely lost after the starting gate opened. He seemed intimidated by the eventual winner showing speed to his outside, and then reacted badly to kickback when he got in behind horses. That OBS workout from June was very impressive and this horse was supposedly training well prior to the unveiling. While his pedigree doesn’t scream dirt route, he figures to show improved early speed here and the fact that he’s drawn outside will help him get into a better rhythm. I’m giving him one more chance.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,6,7
RACE 8: NEURO (#6)
There are many ways to go in this wide open New York-bred maiden event. A horse like Rift Valley figures to attract money, and could potentially go off as the favorite despite the fact that he still has much to prove. This $600k son of Pioneerof the Nile obviously has upside in just his second career start, but it’s not as if he did much running in his debut after breaking a bit sluggishly. The added distance is supposed to help, but runners like this often get overbet. I would consider some others exiting that Nov. 12 affair, such as Not Phar Now and Ernie Banker, though I wasn’t thrilled with the way the former ran last time out. There are also some intriguing first time starters to consider, including King Angelo, who worked a best-of-308 bullet on Nov. 15 at Belmont. However, he has more of a turf pedigree, so it is perhaps best to watch one. I’m going in a slightly different direction with Neuro. This horse has made the majority of his starts on the turf, but his two dirt performances certainly put him in the mix here. He stayed on well to be second going this distance on Oct. 1, and then I thought he again ran well just 16 days later when trying to rally in behind horses through the entire stretch drive. His last effort on turf signals that he’s in the best form of his career right now. I believe he deserves to be favored here, and he might get somewhat overlooked due to the fact that he’s had more chances than some others.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,9,11
RACE 9: FARRAGUT (#5)
Two runners who figure to attract support in this New York-bred allowance are Luna’s in Charge and Jemography. The former ships in from Kentucky after contesting a series of open company races this fall. This 4-year-old is consistent and versatile, usually picking up checks regardless of surface or distance. However, he rarely wins and he may attract plenty of support as he seemingly drops in class. I’m using him, but he’s not the kind of favorite that I want to endorse. Jemography has won plenty of races, but he’s done so out of town at Finger Lakes. Since coming to the NYRA circuit this fall he’s stepped up his game, twice finishing second at this level. However, now he’s facing what appears to be a stronger field at this level than the one he encountered last time. I’m using both of them, but there are others to consider. Raven Rocks was a gutsy maiden winner last time and has room for improvement, though he does have to step forward on the speed figure scale. And a longshot like Bulwark would be tough if able to run back to the massive 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned when breaking his maiden last year. However, he has to contend with a layoff and a potential wet track. I’m most intrigued by Farragut. I know that I’ve been chasing this horse a bit, but he has run better than it appears in a few of his recent starts. He got caught chasing a very fast pace when he was third at this level three back behind the talented Six Percent. And then last time he was always out of position chasing wide in a race that was dominated by horses who rode the rail. I don’t mind the turnback for him given the amount of pace signed on here, and he’s handled wet tracks before.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,8
RACE 10: LIGHT THE POSSE (#14)
Looking At Liberty will beat this field if he repeats almost any of his prior efforts in Kentucky. However, you have to be a little concerned about the drop in class off the claim for sharp connections like Michael Dubb and Rob Atras, who claimed him for $50k and are running him here for $25k. Furthermore, he’s done his best work routing with both wins coming around two turns, and now he’s being asked to cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs. He can obviously win, but he’s not the kind of favorite I’d want to bet at a short price. Once you get past him, there is no shortage of interesting alternatives. Though, I wouldn’t include Money in the Bank among those. He’ll attract support based on his two-race winning streak, but he’s been facing much weaker fields. I’m more interested in runners dropping in class. Truebelieve is somewhat interesting as he ships in from Woodbine for Wayne Potts. His lone dirt race came going longer against a superior field in the Prince of Wales. While he might have more of a turf pedigree, he should appreciate the turnback in distance and he may get overlooked due to the low-percentage rider. My top pick is Light the Posse. This horse may be slightly better on turf than dirt, but it’s been a while since he’s had a fair chance in a dirt race. He had no chance to close in some tougher optional claimers that were dominated on the front end in late 2019. He got back to dirt after the long layoff last month and had no chance to close in a race that featured a slow pace. Now he’s dropping and landing in a race that could feature a more contested pace, and it also doesn’t hurt to pick up Jose Lezcano.
Win/Place: 14
Exacta Key Box: 14 with 2,6,13