by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   3 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   6 - 9 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   9 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   7 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 9:   3 - 8 - 5 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CARIBBEAN GIRL (#6)
Arewehavingfunyet is going to be a heavy favorite as she drops down again for Gary Contessa and returns to the level at which she last won in September. After two disappointing efforts, I thought she got back on track last time in a performance that was better than the speed figure suggests. Luis Reyes seemingly had plenty of horse underneath him rounding the turn, but he seemed unwilling to peel her out around the leaders to launch a move until they got into the stretch. At that point, she had to wait for room and follow the winner, who had gotten the jump on her. She closed well inside to be second, but she probably would have won with a more confident ride. Daria's Angel flattered the form of that race when she returned to win against tougher company earlier this week. Arewehavingfunyet is facing a significantly weaker field this time, and she looms as a very likely winner. However, there is one other interesting horse in this race that needs to be discussed. About two years ago, trainer Joe Parker started winning races in bunches. Between December 2016 and April 2017 horses trained by him visited the winner’s circle 15 times. He then won twice more at Belmont before going quiet. To put into perspective how remarkable that tally is, consider that this barn has won only 21 races during all of the last 5 years. After July 2017, Parker did not win another race for a long time – not until last week at Aqueduct, when he sent out Summer Punch off a trainer switch into his barn. Despite sporting uncompetitive recent form, she took early money and looked like a winner every step of the way, scoring at 11-1. Could history be repeating itself? I think it’s a possibility, so I want to give Caribbean Girl a chance in this race. She is going out for the same owner as Summer Punch, and is also making her first start off a trainer switch. Her form is vastly inferior to that of Arewehavingfunyet, but that might not matter.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 3
 

RACE 5: FORMAL START (#6)
I suppose O Shea Can U See is the one to beat for Jason Servis, but I find this horse difficult to trust. From one day to the next, you don’t know what you’re going to get from him. When he’s in form, he’s capable of destroying fields like this, but he’s also thrown in quite a few poor efforts during his career. His task is made no easier given the presence of Flatexcel just to his inside, as these two speeds figure to hook up in the early going. I’m using O Shea Can U See, but this is a significantly tougher field than the one he beat last time. One of his main rivals appears to be What a Catch off the claim by Chris Englehart. I have no problem with this horse, as he ran a number of competitive speed figures for Todd Pletcher and faced stronger company on a number of occasions. My only issue with him is that he appears to be gradually losing the early speed that he showed, which can be a sign of physical issues. After struggling with this race, I’ve ultimately landed on Formal Start. I know that he got the money last time against a weaker field, but he’s going to be a square price once again. This is a big step up in class, but I’ve always felt that this runner has potential and maybe he just needed that confidence boost. He’s run competitive speed figures on a number of prior occasions, so it’s not as if that race came out of nowhere. I liked that he was able to sit closer to the pace than usual and still come with that powerful finish.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,8,9
Trifecta: 6,9 with 6,9 with 2,4,7,8
 

RACE 8: SKYLER’S SCRAMJET (#6)
This Gravesend drew a strong field of six runners, all of whom are legitimate contenders for top honors. Gold for the King is likely to go off as the favorite after a blowout victory in the New York Stallion Series last month. It was yet another solid performance from a horse that has been in the best form of his career in 2018. I thought he ran an exceptional race two back in the Hudson, overcoming unfavorable pace dynamics to be second, and he may have even improved on that effort last time. The only question for him is the cutback to 6 furlongs, since I do believe he’s best going slightly farther than this. That said, he still figures to work out a good trip in a small field, and he’s strictly the one to beat. Three horses exit a Fall Highweight won by Life in Shambles. This grey gelding has gotten back into top form since the claim by Jason Servis, but I still feel that he’s going to need to improve on that most recent performance if he’s to win his third race in a row. He got a great setup last time, stalking the dueling pair of Always Sunshine and Heartwood before running them down. I wouldn’t put a victory past this horse considering who trains him, but I can’t pick him at a relatively short price. My top selection is Skyler’s Scramjet. This horse was in fantastic form before going to the sidelines earlier in the year. His win in the Tom Fool was good enough to prompt him getting bet down to 5-1 in the Grade 1 Carter. He didn’t even run that badly in that spot behind a freakish effort from Army Mule. Following that, Skyler’s Scramjet went slightly off form. Michelle Nevin has solid numbers bringing horses back off layoffs like this and he’s reportedly training well into this race. It’s an ambitious spot in which to return, but I think he may be up to the task.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5 with ALL
 

RACE 9: HOPPER DROPPER (#3)
The day ends with a very tricky conditioned claimer. I suppose Nolinski will take money once again despite failing at relatively short prices in his last two starts. To his credit, I think he’s run a bit better than it might appear at first glance. He was never going to be a factor against a monster effort by Flatexcel two back. Then last time he dueled for the lead through deceptively fast fractions, as the top two opened up daylight on the rest of the field down the backstretch. He had every right to get tired in that spot, as he still finished well clear of the runner that he was battling early on. The slight turnback in distance helps, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will get a much more favorable pace setup this time. I’m definitely using him, but he’s difficult for me to put on top at a short price. Altesino definitely has the class to be competitive with this group, but you have to wonder about his current form after a series of layoffs cause him to miss most of the summer. He hasn’t seemed quite the same since returning, and he typically puts himself at a disadvantage by breaking slowly. If you want the horse in the best form, it’s probably Hopper Dropper – and that’s why he’s my top pick. I know that some will be deterred by his career tally, as he’s won just once in 32 starts. However, most of those losses came in maiden company. He’s only made 7 starts against winners, and he’s actually run pretty well in the majority of those races. He returned from a layoff back in October and was right in contention until midstretch before showing some signs of rust. He was a fitter horse last time, making a late run to be third after encountering some traffic early. While he’s coming back at the same level, this is actually a much softer spot than that Nov. 30 race. He arguably doesn’t need to improve at all to win this, and he’s unlikely to be favored.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7,8