by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   8 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 11 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   9 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 11 - 7 - 10

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 5: MISTER HENRY LEE (#4)
The runner likely to take the most money is Borsa Vento, who makes his first start off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s run reasonably well for other barns recently, but my issue with him is the stretch-out in distance. His three prior attempts going a route of ground have not ended well, and Rodriguez’s numbers with stretch-outs off the claim are merely mediocre. The runner whom they all must catch is Northern Grey. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that will favor horses on or near the lead, and he is projected to be racing with a clear early advantage. While he’s done most of recent work sprinting, he did handle a mile last winter in California. I’ll use him, but the horse I think will offer the best value is Mister Henry Lee. He didn’t run well over this course last time out, but he may not have cared for the sloppy track that day. His prior dirt efforts give him a big chance here, and all those runs came against tougher company. I like this rider switch to Paco Lopez, who should have him placed closer to the pace in the early going. He successfully employed stalking tactics earlier in his career, and he would be well served to use that strategy here.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6

 

RACE 6: LORD OF LOVE (#9)
There are a number of interesting players in this race. While the Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, it’s quite clear that there are multiple front-runners in this field. Hardened, Attribute, Pocket Change, and Mini Miles have all done their best running on the lead. Either one of them will shake loose, or the pace will fall apart. I tend to think that the latter scenario is more likely, so I’m mostly interested in closers. The horse to beat is probably Yummy Bear, who has really responded to the turnback to six furlongs in his last two starts. He did well to overcome a four-wide trip last time, even though he hung in the final strides. I’ll use him, but the horse I want to bet out of that race is Lord of Love. I know that this runner seemingly never wins, but he’s been in reasonably good form lately. I didn’t think he had the best of trips through the stretch last time, as he never was able to get in the clear when Runaway Posse ranged up on his outside and kept him blocked in behind horses. He seemed to briefly get discouraged but then regathered himself to come running on in the final furlong while still lacking room. I like this rider switch to Jose Ortiz, and six furlongs is the best distance for this runner.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,6,7,8

 

RACE 8: TARALENA (#3)
In the Lee is a deserving favorite as she drops out of the Grade 3 Commonwealth Oaks. That day, she finished just behind Rymska, who returned to impressively take Aqueduct’s Winter Memories Stakes last month. This move back into optional-claiming company is certainly a drop in class, and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who asserts that she is the most likely winner of this race. However, my only reservation with picking her on top is the probable lack of value. She’s even-money on the morning line and could drift lower than that by post time. I’ll certainly use her in multirace wagers, but I would much rather bet on her main rival, Taralena. This 4-year-old filly has had a few starts and stops in her 2017 campaign, but she’s pretty good when she’s right. Her return from the layoff back in May was a much better effort than it appears since she was hounded by a hopeless longshot through the opening furlongs – the pair opening up nearly 10 lengths on the rest of the field early. She did well to put that rival away and still hold off the closers in the stretch. She didn’t run as well next time, but she was chasing a pace that fell apart in the late stages. She’s been given plenty of time since then, and she’s already shown that she can run well fresh. Furthermore, this turnback to nine furlongs may be to her liking.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 5,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 2

 

RACE 9: FUEL THE BERN (#2)
There are two ways to look at this race: Either you think morning-line favorite Not in Charge is far superior to this group, or you think his edge is not that significant and this race is completely wide open. I’m leaning more toward the latter camp. Not in Charge has run very well in his last couple of starts, but he’s really improved with the stretch-out in distance to 10 furlongs, and I wonder if he’s going to be quite as effective now that he’s cutting back. There are a number of viable alternatives, but the one who interests me most is Fuel the Bern. This horse really responded to the move to turf two back, as he destroyed a field of $40,000 maiden claimers. The runner-up and third-place finisher have both come back to validate that speed figure. His connections got a little ambitious for this next start, as he took on stakes company in the Gio Ponti. Yet what was so puzzling about that race was the ride he got, as he was taken out of his game, rating at the back of the pack behind relatively slow fractions. This time, with blinkers added, I expect Irad Ortiz to be more aggressive from this inside post position. If he runs back to his maiden win, I think he’s very dangerous here.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,7,10,11
Trifecta: 2,11 with 2,11 with 1,3,7,9,10