by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 8 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 10 - 8 - 9 - 3
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 9 - 1
RACE 4: PROFESSOR SNAPE (#3)
Bobby On Fleek seems likely to go off as the favorite as he returns on short rest after beating a cheaper field just seven days ago. Rudy Rodriguez
does not have great second-off-the-layoff statistics, and my feeling is that this horse will be a bad bet as the favorite here. The obvious alternative is
Curtis, who is the only other runner in the race to have earned speed figures as high as the favorite has run. Curtis has been in excellent form since
Gary Gullo took over his training, but his task has been compromised by the presence of the speedy Tribecca to his outside. I certainly respect him, but I
want to take a shot against both of these horses with Professor Snape. I know that he looks a bit slower than the aforementioned two, but this barn
change intrigues me. While it’s true that, in general, you want to stay away from horses that were claimed away from Linda Rice, Antonio Arriaga has
done surprisingly well with limited runners at this meet. Most notably, the last three horses that he’s sent out in New York have significantly
outperformed expectations. Just more than a month ago, his runner Dogtown crushed a field at odds of 34-1. Two weeks ago, Sand City, a claimaway
from Danny Gargan, ran a good third despite moving up in class by over 50 percent. And the one that really caught the eye was Dec. 22 fifth
race winner Arbitrator, who ran a career-best speed figure off a claim away from top trainer Christophe Clement. This enormously confident jump in
class from a $14,000 claimer to this $50,000 level would seem to suggest that a vastly improved performance is expected out of Professor Snape.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
RACE 6: CINDERELA EL CROME (#2) / POP THE HOOD (#7)
The two runners likely to attract the most attention here are Polar Jet and Tommy T. Of the pair, I prefer Tommy T, who has run competitive speed
figures in all of his races, albeit against maiden company. However, I think both of these short-priced horses don’t have much margin for error, and
there are some others in here that figure to offer much better value. One of those horses is Pop the Hood. We haven’t seen this gelding since
August, but he runs well fresh and is as fast as Tommy T on his best day. He appears to be working well for his return and could slip through the
cracks with so many more obvious choices. He’ll be on my tickets, but my top pick is Cinderela El Crome. This horse routinely outran his odds for the
previous low-percentage connections, and now gets claimed by Danny Gargan. Over the past five years, Gargan is 18 for 48 (38 percent, $3.43 ROI)
first off the claim in dirt races at Aqueduct. I expect to see significant improvement from this 3-year-old.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 7: CAN YOU DIGGIT (#5)
If Control Group repeats the performance that he put forth in last month’s Discovery, he is almost a certainty to win this race. However, he had
never before hinted at possessing the kind of ability that was on display in that victory. It is worth noting that the Discovery was run during a twoweek
period when Rudy Rodriguez was winning everything in sight and getting a few of his horses to produce career-best efforts. Since then, Rudy
has still been winning, but his momentum has slowed somewhat. I still think Control Group is very dangerous, but he’s going to get early pressure
from Wake Up in Malibu as long as that foe breaks cleanly. At a very short price, this seems like the right time to take a shot against him. I picked
Can You Diggit in the Discovery, and he disappointed that day. Yet I think he’s deserving of one more chance here. I may have underestimated how
difficult it would be for Can You Diggit to return on such short rest, just 10 days after his prior start. He’s now had five weeks to recover from those
performances, so I’m hopeful that he can get back to the form that he displayed in the Empire Classic. On that occasion, he ran a better race than
Control Group when closing into a moderate pace. The nine furlongs suits him, and he’s one of the few horses in this race that still has some upside.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with ALL
RACE 8: THIS CAT CAN FLY (#2)
Big Thicket is clearly the one to fear as he makes his first start off the claim by Linda Rice. However, she’s getting this horse from the highly capable
Brad Cox barn, so I’m not sure how much improvement we can reasonably expect to see. Rice has pretty decent numbers with stretch-outs like this,
but this runner’s only race at this distance was one of his worst performances. Given a short price, I’m mildly against him. I think we need to get a
little more creative, so I’m taking a shot with This Cat Can Fly. At first glance, he looks like nothing more than a turf horse. However, I’m wondering if
he just improved with the stretch out in distance last time, rather than the surface switch. This horse is bred to handle route distances, being by
Birdstone out of a Cat Thief mare. He got going too late in his first couple of sprint starts on dirt over the summer. He returned four months later to
run an improved race on grass, but he didn’t appear to be relishing that surface. Now he gets a needed drop in class as he tries a route distance on
the dirt.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,9