PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   5 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 9:   6 - 1 - 8 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: GOLDINI (#6)

I was skeptical of Its All Relevant (#3) last time when the public stuck made him favored as part of a 6-5 entry. He got some pace pressure in the early stages and was completely out of gas with 3 furlongs to go, backing up quickly at the quarter pole. His prior form was stronger, but he’s been showing signs throughout the fall that he’s not in the same form that we saw from him earlier this year. It just feels like this 9-year-old is heading the wrong way for a barn that has been a little cold lately. While he has handled this 1 1/8 miles distance before, he could have another difficult pace scenario to deal with, as Caribbean (#2) possesses plenty of early speed just to his inside. Perhaps Caribbean will have more to offer switching into the Rob Atras barn, but I preferred runners that would be coming from off the pace. Supply Chain (#1) ran better than it might appear last time, as he was off very slowly and made a premature move down the backstretch to run up into mid-pack. Considering how much work he did early, he actually stayed on pretty well for fourth behind the superior Durkin’s Call. He’s now first off the claim for Amira Chichackly, but this barn has had some success as of late. My top pick is Goldini (#6), who drops in class out of a $16k claiming race. I think some may not realize how much softer this field is than last time, so I won’t be too hard on him for that 15-length defeat. That was his first ever start on dirt and he didn’t run that much worse than his prior turf races. He actually has pedigree for dirt, and he’s certainly cut out to handle the 9-furlong distance. I don’t love him, but he is getting a rider upgrade to Javier Castellano and figures to get somewhat ignored in a spot where I’m just not thrilled with the favorites.

WIN: #6 Goldini, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 1

RACE 3: ROL AGAIN DANCER (#4)

Valenzan Day (#5) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops in class to race for the $50k tag in this starter allowance. This colt started off his career in promising fashion, but disappointed in a series of stakes. It would appear that Rudy Rodriguez ran him out of town to race in those optional claiming races, which typically aren’t available until late in the season at NYRA. He wasn’t claimed for $62,500 in his last couple of starts, so I suppose they feel comfortable to risk him for $50k here, though one would think he’s worth a bit more than that as a Florida-bred, given the speed figures he’s running. He’s a deserving favorite, but he figures to be an awfully short price in a race where a few others do have some upside. Bobby the Tank (#3) is wheeling back on short rest, but he was game to hold on going a mile when breaking his maiden last week. Linda Rice tends to do well off short rests and the turnback in distance should suit him. Yet I want to go in a different direction with a horse who may get somewhat overlooked. Rol Again Dancer (#4) looks light on speed figures compared to the favorite, but he’s actually kept pretty strong company in his recent races. Both Recruiter and Johnnz From Albany, who finished first and second two back, returned to win stakes in their next starts with improved speed figures. Rol Again Dancer was finishing decently that day despite looking a little reluctant to go through between horses in the stretch. He didn’t run as well last time at Parx, but the winner of that race has some quality to him. I like the stretch-out in distance, as he’s bred to go longer, and he seems like one who could benefit from blinkers. It’s also noteworthy that he isn’t risked for the $50k tag after putting in some quick workouts in recent weeks. I’m expecting an improved effort this time.

WIN: #4 Rol Again Dancer, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6: SHADOLAMO (#1)

I acknowledge that Mia Bea Star (#6) looks pretty formidable against this group off her series of recent speed figures, but I just can’t stomach such a short price on this mare. Randi Persaud is not the kind of trainer that I personally want to trust with a horse that could be around even-money, and Mia Bea Star herself has never been the most reliable win candidate. She will be a handful if she runs back to her races two and three back, when she closed into moderate paces behind Know It All Audrey. However, she didn’t run quite as well last time when she looked a bit more logical. She can win, but I wanted to look elsewhere. The two logical alternatives are Juliana’s Rose (#3) and Dufresne (#4). The former hasn’t run particularly fast in her races, but she has met some better rivals in her last couple of starts, and she’s bred to stretch out as a full-sister to stakes winner Maiden Beauty. Dufresne isn’t the most convincing on dirt, but she did seem to handle a sloppy track in the Maid of the Mist last year. Yet I want to get more creative with a longshot. Shadolamo (#1) looks cheaper than these at first glance, but I’m intrigued by her recent move back into the Eduardo Jones barn. She had run her best races for him earlier this year and showed some signs that she might be heading back in the right direction in her second start off a trainer switch back to his stable last time. She has been going shorter recently, but she handled a mile earlier this year and sprung a huge upset with a competitive speed figure going this distance last winter. It doesn’t hurt that she’s getting weight from the favorite with the apprentice riding, and she figures to be a generous price.

WIN: #1 Shadolamo, at 8-1 or greater