PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   9 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 3:   8 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 11 - 1 - 12
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 8:   7 - 9 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   10 - 9 - 4 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 1: BELLAGIO (#2)
Bourbonic is probably the horse to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time. I don’t know why they ran him on turf last time because he really doesn’t have much pedigree for that surface. He was simply facing a vastly superior field in his dirt debut and he’s getting needed class relief. Significantly, Todd Pletcher is a remarkable 25 for 50 (50%, $2.63 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns in dirt routes over the past 5 years. I’m hardly against him, but I do prefer his main rival at what figures to be a slightly better price. Bellagio is making that same drop after just one start, when he was badly outrun every step of the way going 1 1/8 miles behind Remsen third-place finisher Known Agenda. Nine furlongs is just a tough distance for any horse’s debut, so he should have gotten some needed fitness out of that start. Furthermore, this colt was in traffic for much of that race, unable to gain momentum while stymied in behind tiring runners around the far turn. This well-bred colt has more ability than he showed that day and he’s getting a positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado for his second start.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with ALL

RACE 2: CHOOSE HAPPINESS (#9)
The short prices in this field just don’t do a whole lot for me. After the scratch of I Dare U, Princess in Charge will inherit the favorite's role, but I’m somewhat skeptical of her form. She exits a race that received a pretty large speed figure for the level, but she was beaten 10 lengths and is arguably facing a better group this time. I want to get a little more creative and there are definitely some alternatives to consider at better prices. I didn’t pick her on top, but a horse like First Dawn has to be considered as she drops back down to an appropriate class level. She has plenty of speed figures that make her just as fast as the favorites, and she’s going to be a significantly higher price. Yet my top pick is Choose Happiness. This filly obviously looks slow, but she’ll be stretching out to a dirt route for the first time and I think this is what she really wants. She broke her maiden against a weak field at Finger Lakes three back and since then she’s simply been outrun going sprint distances. She has plenty of route pedigree on her dam’s side and she’s always hitting her best stride too late in her races, indicative of a horse who’s crying out for more ground.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,6,8

RACE 4: ALEMIA (#6)
Dovima is a deserving favorite as she catches a pretty weak maiden special weight field. This filly has clearly had her chances, having finished second by a half-length or less in three of her four career starts. However, she’s earning speed figures that are superior to those of her rivals, and she’s exiting a live race at Keeneland, out of which a number of horses have improved subsequently. Among those with prior dirt experience I think she’s a total standout. However, there are some wild cards in this race who are either making their debuts or trying this surface for the first time. One of those is Alemia, who will be switching to dirt after making two starts on turf. While her pedigree looks turf-oriented at first glance, her best half-sibling Stays in Vegas, a graded stakes-quality turf horse, could also handle the dirt, winning a minor stakes on that surface. Furthemore, Alemia is by Congrats, whereas her turf-meant siblings have been by more conventional turf sires. This chestnut filly has a lot of size to her, and seems like one that should physically be strong enough to handle this Aqueduct main track. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is a somewhat surprising 6 for 15 (40%, $4.07 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. She has the speed to work out the right trip in a paceless race, and I expect a solid effort out of her.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 2,4,5,8

RACE 6: SHANES PRETTY LADY (#3)
Laobanonaprayer is simply the horse to beat as the only stakes winner in this field. She wasn’t winning the strongest edition of the Maid of the Mist last time, but it’s not as if she’s meeting any killers in here. The cutback to 7 furlongs is a bit of a question mark for a filly who appears to relish distance, but she could arguably regress and still beat this group. Her main rival is probably debut winner Gray Destiny. This filly did everything right in her debut She rated kindly off the pace, professionally moved up inside of horses on the far turn, and pulled away through the stretch. The one problem is that it was a fairly weak off-the-turf affair. Not only was she entered for turf, but she was facing a field of rivals who were also intended for that surface. That said, this filly really does have more of a dirt pedigree and she’s not supposed to mind turning back in distance. I’m using both of them, but I slightly prefer Shanes Pretty Lady at what figures to be a more generous price. Her debut was pretty strong. Even though she got plenty of pace to close into, she finished powerfully once wheeled out into the clear. A number of horses have run back out of that race to improve their speed figures subsequently, so that 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure looks legitimate. The problem is that she regressed last time when making her stakes debut off the trainer switch to Pletcher. She was sluggish from the start and never got involved. Yet I think the added ground will help this daughter of Bellamy Road, and she does figure to get pace to close into here.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,11,12

RACE 9: QUEEN DAVEIGH (#10)
This race is pretty ridiculous. It’s as if it was originally put in the condition book for turf and has now been carded as a dirt race, because most of the entrants appear to be turf horses. I’m generally against turf horses switching surfaces with little dirt pedigree at short prices, so I’m not inclined to pick runners like Kitten’s Romance or even Hot Button, who did have an excuse in her prior dirt effort. I think this race could produce a wacky result, so I’m going to pick a wacky horse. Queen Daveigh is making that switch from turf to dirt for the first time, but at least she’s going to be an enticing price. While her turf efforts aren’t exactly inspiring, I have no idea what she was doing running on that surface. Stay Thirsty is one of the worst turf sires among commercial stallions and there really isn’t much turf breeding in her female family either. It appears to me that these low-profile connections may have just been running her in the wrong spots. Now she’s dropping in class and catching a very weak field for the level while potentially getting on the right surface. I’m intrigued.

Win/Place: 10