by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   1/1A - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 2 - 1A
Race 7:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 7 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 5: CARIBA (#3)
There are some very intriguing first-time starters in this maiden event. The one that is likely to attract the most support is Katama Moonlight, who goes out for Chad Brown. While this filly has the pedigree to be a nice horse, as the $400,000 purchase price would suggest, it’s really more of a route pedigree. Her full brother Noble Moon was best around two turns on the dirt, winning the Grade 2 Jerome a few years ago. I’m definitely using her, but there are others that have a right to do well on first asking, and you’re not getting any value with this one. Perhaps the most intriguing new face is Birdy Num, a $1 million yearling purchase who makes her debut for Tom Albertrani. While this barn isn’t renowned for its success on debut, Albertrani has gotten firsters to win for these owners on several occasions over the past few seasons. This filly has loads of pedigree, as her dam won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, and she is a full sister to stakes winner Believe in Royalty. She’s trained well in the morning, so I would take this one very seriously. I could also give a look to horses like Moon and Stars or Cover Photo, but the board will be my guide. My top pick is one of the few fillies with experience. I have to bet back Cariba off her debut effort. I had liked her quite a bit that day, but she took very little play, going off at 7-1. They paid a lot of money for this daughter of Cairo Prince, and it’s easy to see why. Her dam is a half-sister to Hello Liberty, who won the Grade 2 Nassau County and was second in the Grade 1 Acorn, as well as dirt sprint stakes winner Pious Ashley. I had watched a few of this filly’s morning workouts prior to her debut, and while they weren’t fast drills, I loved the way she moved over the ground. Her debut effort was a disappointment, but she was also very green, trying to lug in throughout the stretch run under a frustrated Junior Alvarado. She’s bred to sprint, and I think we’ll see a more professional effort this time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 1,8 with 1,4,7,8,9
 

RACE 6: BEACHSIDE (#1)
This New York-bred allowance race drew some promising runners, and topping that list is the exciting colt Le General. This chestnut son of Lemon Drop Kid dazzled in his maiden victory last time, running away from the field with ease. He earned an impressive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, a number that would make him pretty formidable in most open races at this level. If he repeats that performance, he is going to win right back, but he does have a few hurdles to overcome. He’s stretching out two additional furlongs in a race where others have already proven themselves over a route of ground, and he’ll be racing over a fast track for the first time. I have some reservations, but he is clearly the most likely winner. I’m taking a shot against this horse with Beachside. I wish he wasn’t part of a coupled entry with Just Right, since that runner will drive down his price. However, I’ve liked all of this colt’s races, and he really responded well to the stretch-out in distance last time. He ran deceptively well in his pair of dirt sprints, but he ran like a horse that would relish more ground, and that proved to be the case. I like that he showed improved early speed that day, and the race came up fairly fast. If Le General takes a step backward on the stretch-out, I think Beachside will be a formidable foe for the favorite.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3
 

RACE 7: BON RAISON (#5)
At first glance, Sanavi just looks too good for this field. He’s been in great form recently, winning two of his three starts since coming to the East Coast. The last two wins came at Belmont around one turn for Jeremiah Englehart, and I thought he ran fine in those races. My problem is that he worked out absolutely perfect trips on both occasions, and I wonder if he’s going to be quite as effective stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. He’s the horse to beat, but he doesn’t have any real speed figure advantage looking at TimeformUS numbers, and I think he’s somewhat vulnerable at a short price. Sparty Boy is the wild card in this field, since he earned a very competitive speed figure last time, but did so against $10,000 claimers. It’s possible that he is just a different horse for Rudy Rodriguez, but I want to see some additional confirmation before I support him in a race this tough. One of the primary features of this race is the overall lack of early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting that Bon Raison will be clearly in front through the early going in a situation that favors the leader, and I think that could make him very dangerous. There is just no one to go with this horse early, and Mike Luzzi figures to be aggressive. Some may be deterred by his poor effort going this distance in the Discovery last time, but that came against much tougher horses. Prior to that he had been in very good form, albeit during a time when Gary Contessa’s runners were all performing well. Even his fourth-place finish in the Bold Ruler was pretty good and would give him a major chance in this race. With this barn not going quite as well and Mike Luzzi named to ride, Bon Raison figures to go off at a square price this time.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 3,4,6
 

RACE 8: I’M AN OCALA DUDE (#2)
It’s hard to have much faith in any of the likely short prices given the combination of dropdowns and layoffs. I suppose Fillet of Sole is the horse to beat given his pair of recent runner-up finishes at this level. However, Jason Servis not shown much confidence in him since claiming back in May. This is the shortest distance that he’s gone since his 2-year-old season, and I’m concerned that he may not possess the speed to keep up with these in the early going. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer others. The short-priced runner that I’m most strongly against is Devine Entry. This horse has run well on dirt only at Laurel and it’s never a good sign when Linda Rice is dropping horses in class so drastically. Baseline would be more appealing if not for his dull effort on Nov. 17, which leads me to believe that 6 furlongs may just be too short for him. Given my reservations about the aforementioned contenders, I’m taking a shot with I’m an Ocala Dude. He, too, has his flaws, but at least Michelle Nevin has encouraging numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 11 for 22 (50 percent, $3.08 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more in dirt sprints. I’m an Ocala Dude is returning from the layoff as a new gelding, and he has back form that would make him a major player in this race. He obviously wasn’t in great form over the summer, but at least he handled this Aqueduct surface last winter, running all of his best career races over this strip.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7