by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   3 - 8 - 2 - 1

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 6: RACHEL’S BLUE MOON (#4)
Despite only attracting six runners, this race may offer the best wagering opportunities on a day that lacks appeal for serious handicappers. I say that because there is a pair of fillies who together should attract the bulk of support, and I am against both of them. Honey Graeme may end up going off as the favorite off her recent win against starter allowance company. On the surface of things, it would appear that she is dropping in class to face $40,000 claimers. However, anyone viewing her last race with an ounce of scrutiny will notice that she only beat three rivals, two of whom barely finished the race. The race turned into a layup for her, as she worked out an absolutely perfect trip sitting in behind the speeds. I don’t expect her to repeat that performance against a far more competitive field. I’m also not particularly scared of the other horse that should take money, Letmetakethiscall. Some may argue that she needed her return race against slightly tougher company and can step forward, but I’m skeptical. She took money like she was supposed to show up last time and failed to lift a hoof. Going back to last year, I wasn’t thrilled with either of her victories, and I believe she looks better on paper than she actually is. I prefer the three outside runners. The horse to beat may be Danny Gargan’s other entrant, Our Girl Abby. She had little chance against the likes of Big Birthday last time, but her prior form makes her formidable in here, and she’s drawn well outside of the other speed. I’m using her, but my top pick is Rachel’s Blue Moon. It’s possible that she just doesn’t want to participate anymore, but you can make some excuses for her last two efforts. She was involved in taxing paces on both occasions. The fact that she barely finished her last race may deter some bettors, but her rider never asked her for run and basically eased her at the quarter pole, exaggerating the margin of defeat. Sometimes a turnback in distance can wake up horses like this. She’s never really been given a fair chance to be a dirt sprinter, and that may ultimately be what she wants to do. I also wouldn’t totally discount Parx shipper Nth Degree. I don’t love any of her races, but at least she’s relatively reliable in a race lacking trustworthy options.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta Box: 4,5,6
 

RACE 7: OUTPLAY (#5)
Make no mistake about it – if Ironclad repeats either of his two recent efforts since getting claimed by Danny Gargan, he is going to win this race. However, both of those performances came over sloppy, sealed tracks, which he clearly loves, and this time he will have to duplicate those efforts over fast going. He’s certainly handled dry dirt in the past, but all of the recent speed figures that justify his status as a likely odds-on favorite were earned over a sealed tracks, including a win at Keeneland last April. Actually, you have to go all the way back to the summer of 2017 to find a fast track performance that would be commensurate with his inevitably miniscule odds in this race. It’s also somewhat suspicious that Gargan is dropping him in class off that last win, given how fast he ran. I acknowledge that he’s the most likely winner, but I think you have to be at least somewhat skeptical given the circumstances. I’m taking a shot against him with Outplay. I don’t love this horse, but the Mertkan Kantarmaci barn is enjoying a very strong meet and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front through the early stages in a scenario favoring the leader. He was hindered by a fast pace against superior competition last time, and this stable has had success racing second off the claim in the past.

Win: 5
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with ALL
 

RACE 8: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#3)
This race features a rematch of the top five finishers from the Bay Ridge on December 30. Split Time has to be considered the horse to beat after winning that nine-furlong event. She made an impressive far turn move up the rail, catching many of her rivals off guard as she rushed into the lead at the quarter pole. She got a little leg weary in the late stages, but I suppose she had a right to get tired. The turnback to a one-turn mile should suit her and she’s versatile enough to work out a trip. However, looking at speed figures, she’s not really any faster than her main rivals and is going to be a short price. Of the Bay Ridge runners, I actually prefer No Hayne No Gayne, who chased an honest pace while racing wide throughout. This mare always hinted at possessing more ability than she was displaying, and it seems like she’s finally put it all together over the course of her last few starts. She was impressive winning at this distance against inferior rivals last time and the barn has been hot. I believe she will be formidable, but there’s an intriguing new addition to this field. I’m delighted to see Midnight Disguise back in the entries. This massive filly was one of my favorite horses from last winter at Aqueduct. While she’s returning in an ambitious spot, Linda Rice has done this before with her half-sister Holiday Disguise, who won this race off the same layoff following her Bouwerie win as a 3-year-old. When Midnight Disguise is at her best, I believe she’s better than this field. Fitness is a concern, but I’ve always thought she had the potential to improve with added maturity, and I’m excited to see how she’sav developed during the time away.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,8
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,2,5,7