by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 5 - 7
RACE 3: FORRES LILY (#6)
The Cake Is a Lie is likely to be a very short price following her encouraging effort at this level last time out. Making her first start against winners, she finished third against a much deeper field than this one. The only knock I have against her is that her performance was aided by a racetrack that favored runners with the rail position. On the other hand, she finds herself in against a pretty soft group and is very much the horse to beat. The other runner exiting that race, Jetsam Six, also deserves a long look. She was making her first start following an eight-month layoff last time and certainly had a right to need the race. Her trainer, Dave Cannizzo, does very well with runners in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 12 for 50 (24 percent, $3.28 ROI) with non-maidens making their second starts off a layoff in dirt sprints. However, I’m concerned that she lacks speed in a race that the Pace Projector is predicting will favor runners with forward early position. Therefore, I’ve landed on Forres Lily as my top selection. While she’s had more chances than most of the runners in this race, I think her most recent effort signals that she may be an improved filly as a 4- year-old. Returning from a 3 1/2- month layoff last time, she held on well to be third after setting the pace, earning a speed figure that puts her in the mix here. Furthermore, her form toward the end of last year was actually trending in the right direction. She was hindered by racing wide against a rail bias on Aug. 13 at Saratoga and then found herself in too tough against a more talented field at this level on Oct. 12. She now gets a positive rider switch to Trevor McCarthy, and I think she’s a viable alternative to the favorite.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
RACE 4: TRUE TIMBER (#3)
I really like this turnback for True Timber, who has spent the majority of his career contesting two-turn races. While he hasn’t run badly in those longer events, his effort two back on Oct. 13 suggests that sprinting may be what he really wants to do. That day, he finished a good second behind the very talented Lasting Legacy. While he found himself setting a slow pace that day, he’s pretty versatile and should have no trouble adapting to a faster early tempo this time. His main rival, Gorgeous Charli, figures to blast off to the early lead under Paco Lopez, but I think True Timber is the more talented of the two runners. The other horse to consider here is Pop the Hood, who has previously run fast enough to beat both of the aforementioned runners. However, all four of his wins were accomplished when he was able to secure the early lead, and that’s unlikely to happen with Gorgeous Charli in the race.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,4
RACE 7: BATTLE STATION (#1)
This featured Rego Park Stakes drew only five runners, but it’s certainly not lacking in depth. The likely favorite is New York Hero, who turns back to a sprint for trainer Linda Rice. I actually like that they’re cutting this horse back to a shorter race despite his pedigree to handle longer distances. He strikes me as the kind of runner who possesses more speed than stamina, and he was able to use that speed to win his maiden going a mile after setting very fast early fractions. However, the same tactics didn’t work next time out when he was run down late. The winner of that race, Jaye Jaye, returned to run poorly in his next start, but I’m not so concerned about that. New York Hero showed that he can be effective as a closing sprinter in his debut, and he figures to get a good setup in this race, sitting a few lengths off the speeds drawn to his outside. Morning Breez is another likely to attract support, and for good reason. He’s run well in each of his last two starts while running some of the fastest speed figures in the field. He didn’t quite get a mile last time and should find this six-furlong distance to be more to his liking. I’ll use both of these colts, but the one who interests me most is Battle Station. This Wesley Ward trainee has had some ups and downs in his short career, but he’s run extremely well in all three of his sprint races. The only two times he hasn’t shown up were in routes. The Churchill Downs allowance race that he contested two back was flattered by the subsequent performance of Seven Trumpets in the Withers and illustrated that he’s comfortable rating off other horses. He’s been gelded since his most recent start in the Damon Runyon Stakes and enters this race following an encouraging workout last week.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with ALL