PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   8 - 2 - 3 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 1: CLASH A. J. (#6)
Badgerville figures to take money here as he ships up from Florida to make his debut, especially after Pletcher won with a similar runner on Saturday. He’s by 13% debut sire Gormley, and there really hasn’t been much production on the dam’s side. Todd Pletcher is 6 for 28 (21%, $1.81 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming dirt sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years. The workouts down in Florida may not look that fast, but he’s held his own with workmates in the mornings. Eddie the Great and Wild Carp Diem could also take some money coming off decent efforts at this level. The former cuts back to 6 furlongs, but I’m not sure that’s really to his benefit since I thought he put forth his best effort going a mile last time. Wild Carp Diem was chasing outside against a rail bias in his last start, but both of his dirt efforts have come over sloppy tracks and I’m a little concerned about whether he can transfer that form to a fast surface. I want the class dropper. Clash A. J. is probably just getting the class relief he needs after going off at big prices against maiden special weight company in all of his prior starts. He put forth his best effort two back when just missing at 63-1 odds. He did get a great trip and pace setup that day as the entire race was falling apart late, but he still ran well against a much better field. It may look like he regressed last time, but he was outside on Jan. 22, a day that featured a strong rail bias. This is much softer spot, and he’s unlikely to go favored due to the low-profile connections.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,5

RACE 2: HOLDTHEFLIGHT (#5)
The two likely favorites in this spot are Charger and Good Culture. I can’t take the former at a short price for a few reasons. Firstly, the Linda Rice barn has been very cold lately at Aqueduct. She’s claimed a lot of horses during the past few months, and this is one of the few horses who has actually won coming into her barn during that time. However, he had to go to Parx to collect that victory, and then last time was fortunate to ride a gold rail at Aqueduct. I think he’s vulnerable at a short price. Good Culture is a little more appealing, since he wasn’t totally with the bias last time on Jan. 16. He was outside for most of his trip before angling down to the rail in the stretch and passing horses late. My biggest issue with him is his general lack of early speed, which usually finds him settling for a minor award. I wanted to think outside the box a little bit, and there is a new face to consider. I’m intrigued by Holdtheflight coming in from Parx. This runner’s prior form isn’t exactly that compelling, but he’s a very interesting claim by a sharp trainer. Penny Pearce has a lot of success at Parx, and she’s done well with a few recent starters that she’s shipped to the NYRA circuit. This chestnut gelding is a pretty big horse who has handled multiple surfaces racing in the Midwest. It feels like he has a little more ability than his past performances might suggest, and he’s ambitiously spotted for his first start out of the new barn.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6

RACE 3: MAKINGCENTS (#6)
Equal Measure comes in off a competitive speed figure, which was earned finishing second at the $32k level last time. She was no match for the impressive winner Customerexperience that day, but it was a good sign that she ran so well in the return to dirt. The problem is that she was riding the gold rail for part of that trip, which may have enhanced her performance. I wanted to see it again. Some may considered Greatest Love, who goes first off the claim for Linda Rice. She was against the track last time when closing for second, but that was a soft field and she’s unproven going this far. I’m more interested in a couple of New York-breds in this field. Choose Happiness never looked totally comfortable over that sloppy track last time, but she had run well in her prior start when overcoming a rail trip on a day when that wasn’t the place to be. She’s a rebound candidate with Trevor McCarthy taking over the reins. Yet my top pick is Makingcents. She clearly hasn’t looked like the same horse after her 3-year-old season. However, I thought she showed some signs of life when dropped in for a tag against NY-breds last time. That Dec. 19 race was a strangely run affair where they set a glacial early pace before sprinting home. Notably, this mare was glued to the rail the entire way on a day when all the best running was done on the outside. That effort may be better than it looks, and she figures to be the controlling speed from the outside this time. It’s the last chance for this once classy runner.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 4,6
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5 with 1,2,4,5

RACE 9: SIR WILLIAM (#8)
There really isn’t anyone to fear in this wide open maiden claiming event to close out the day. Bohemian Ruby and Rush to Honor could vie for favoritism, though I’m not that thrilled with either runner. Bohemian Ruby has had his chances at this level recently and has run decently without really threatening to win. He was against the track last time on Jan. 22, but so were some other horses who finished ahead of him that day and he never launched a rally. Conversely, he got a great trip two back and that’s probably the best he’s capable of producing right now. Rush to Honor showed some ability in his debut last May at Belmont, but he wasn’t seen for a long time after that. This horse was entered for turf on debut and has a turf pedigree, yet he missed turf season and returned on dirt last month. He showed brief speed before tiring badly, and now drops to this bottom level for a barn that has had little success with dropdowns as of late. I want to go in another direction. Multiple horses exit that Jan. 22 race at this level and the one that intrigues me most is Sir William. I think this horse had been wanting more ground all along, and he showed subtle improvement on the stretch-out last time. He was never directly on the rail that day, stalking in the two-path early and into the stretch. I thought he finished gamely all things considered, and can do better with that route experience under his belt. This half-brother to Sea Raven is bred to go long.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,4