PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 1A - 2 - 3
Race 7:   9 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   5 - 8 - 10 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 5: GONGHEIFATCHOY (#2)
Implied Volatility may go favored here off the strength of his second-place finish at this level last time. However, he really had no excuse to lose that race after working out a perfect stalking trip. He had dead aim at leader Hudson Overpass in upper stretch and just didn’t want to go by a horse who himself has had issues winning races in the past. Perhaps a similar performance will be good enough this time, but I strongly prefer his main rival Gongheifatchoy. This horse has been in solid from since returning from a layoff last fall. He had trouble at the break when overmatched against tougher rivals in early November, but he improved significantly once dropped down to this $25,000 claiming level. Some will say that he improved on a muddy track two back, but his 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance wasn’t that much higher than the 83 he earned when finishing third last time. Gary Richards may have sent him a little too aggressively in the early stages of that Jan. 11 affair, as he faded through the stretch. Now he gets a subtle but considerable rider upgrade to promising apprentice Luis Cardenas, who seems to have a knack for placing horses well from a pace standpoint. He’s drawn outside of his main rival Implied Volatility, so he can play the break and see how to react to that runner’s tactics. I believe Gongheifatchoy is the superior horse and I think he’s finally found the right field to allow him to break out of the maiden ranks.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,4,5,6

RACE 6: AUNT BABE (#8)
My Roxy Girl might be the horse to beat off her victory at the starter allowance level last time. She got back on track after a couple of poor efforts, at least by her standards. However, she was beating a relatively weak field that day and she’s going to have to improve upon that performance while stepping up in class. She’s done it before, but it’s not like she’s going to offer any value. The Pace Projector is unsurprisingly predicting a fast pace, which is always the case in a race that includes the speedball Forgotten Hero. She's dangerous as the potential speed of the speeds at a generous price, but a pace collapse seems more likely. That figures to set things up perfectly for Aunt Babe. Her 93 Late Pace Rating is easily the highest in this field, which just confirms that she’s the only true closer in this race. She almost pulled off the victory at this level last time and was just unfortunate to run into the vastly improved Gypsy Janie. A repeat of that performance makes her very dangerous right back. Furthermore, she’s now getting a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano and there’s even more speed entered than last time. The other runner that I’d want to throw into the mix is She’s a Black Belt. Michelle Nevin’s runners often need a start off layoffs, but she did run well in a few starts early in her 3-year-old season and she doesn’t need the lead to be successful. She sports an impressive worktab for the return so it’s possible that she has improved with the time away.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 8 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4,6,7

RACE 7: HIGH AMPLITUDE (#9)
This is a perplexing N1X allowance affair in which you have contenders coming in from a variety of directions and class levels. You can make a case for many different runners, so perhaps it seems counterintuitive that I’m defaulting to the likely favorite High Amplitude. I just think this Chad Brown trainee is probably better than this group and may sail through this allowance condition following a visually impressive score against maidens last time. While his two best results have come over sloppy, sealed tracks I don’t think there’s significant evidence that he’s better on such going. His lone fast dirt race was actually better than it appears, as he was put in a pocket early, got shuffled back, and had to rally again into a slow pace. His return from the layoff last time was dazzling and he earned an impressive 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance. That number has since been validated as third-place finisher Fast Master and fourth-place finisher One Eyed Jack both returned to win their subsequent starts with solid figures. I’m not trying to beat this favorite, particularly because I’m not enamored with the logical alternatives. I Love Jaxson seems like the biggest threat, but he’s now been off for nearly two months, which isn’t a great sign considering that Linda Rice prefers to strike while the iron is hot during the winter months. Notably he’s been a vet scratch on two occasions since his last victory. I’m even less confident in the chances of House Limit, who had everything go his way last time against a far weaker field. I believe he’d have to improve to defeat this crew. I’d prefer to entertain some larger-priced options underneath. The longshot who I find most intriguing is Hip Hip Jorge. I know he wasn’t beating much in that maiden win last time, but it was a fast race. It seems like he’s just turned the corner for Mark Casse, who is having a stellar meet at Aqueduct. It’s fair to be concerned about the stretch-out but, being by Tapit out of graded stakes winning router Andujar, he’s bred to relish added distance.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,7
Trifecta: 9 with 3,4,7 with 1,3,4,5,6,7

RACE 8: BOURBON BAY (#6)
Scilly Cay may go off as the slight favorite after impressively winning the Rego Park by open lengths, putting away his main rival Dream Bigger while holding off the closers. He was primed for a top effort that day, but he arguably ran just as well two back when running through kickback to finish a strong second in the Notebook. He’s clearly coming into this race in great form for Linda Rice, but he will be stretching out for the first time. I think you have to be a little concerned about the added ground since he hails from more of a sprinting family, as a half-brother to the talented sprinters Midnight Transfer and Long Haul Bay. His talent may allow him to get the mile, but I think he’s going to have to be at his best to defeat the rival just to his inside. Bourbon Bay was no match for Kentucky Derby prospect Independence Hall in the Jerome last time, but I thought he stayed on well for second after taking a shot at the winner at the quarter pole. Unlike his two main rivals, he’s proven that he can get the mile and he’s bred to go even farther than that. There appears to be enough speed in this race to set up his late run and it seems like he’s finally getting over the gate issues that once plagued him. He’s my top pick, but I also wouldn’t totally discount Bank On Shea. He was a little lucky to win that lucrative stakes last time, but it is interesting that Jose Lezcano, the regular rider of all three of these favorites, has chosen to stick with this Servis trainee.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 4,7 with 1,2,4,7