by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 1A - 6 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 6 - 9
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 8 - 2

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: FLATEXCEL (#4)
I suppose a discussion of this race should start with an assessment of morning-line favorite Discreet Mission. Some might feel that this gelding will be formidable since he has run a series of competitive speed figures and was a runaway winner the last time he raced for a tag. However, I’m skeptical of this runner. John Kimmel does not have strong numbers with this allowance-to-claiming move (2 for 27, 7 percent, $0.78 ROI over the past five years), and this runner’s last race on Dec. 20 is of great concern to me. He was never involved, and David Cohen appeared to ride him very tentatively. His form has gradually been tailing off, so I wonder if the physical issues that kept him off the track for two years may be catching up to him. In my opinion, the horse to beat is Rogue Nation. He seems to be improving for Rudy Rodriguez, and he’s getting some logical class relief. While his form is completely exposed, I nevertheless think that he may be able to win this race if he merely repeats his last effort. Yet there are some intriguing entrants who figure to go off at much bigger prices, and one in particular may significantly outrun his odds. Flatexcel looks overmatched at first glance but merits a closer look. This horse can barely stand up on a wet track, so I can excuse all of his performances on tracks rated less than fast. Considering the muddy going last time, he actually didn’t even run that poorly, as he was chasing two to three wide against a golden rail. He ran a competitive speed figure when he encountered a more favorable scenario two back. The main question for him is the stretch-out in distance, but he’s certainly bred to go long, and he’s handled route distances in the past. In fact, he won his maiden around two turns. Furthermore, I’m intrigued that he’s making his first start off the claim for new trainer Edmund Davis. This former Jimmy Jerkens assistant has gotten his limited number of starters to run above their prior form in the past month, and Flatexcel can win this race if he shows similar improvement.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,7
 

RACE 4: CARTHON (#3)
I’m picking against the favored entry, but I fully acknowledge that Blewitt and Storm Prophet are far and away the most likely winners of this contest. Blewitt is the one whom many will regard as most formidable, and I suppose he will win this race if he repeats his recent performance against open N1X company. However, I’ve never been the biggest fan of this runner, and he was allowed to sit a perfect trip stalking a pedestrian pace last time. I’m using him prominently, but I get the sense he’s going to be an underlay in this spot. In some ways, I actually prefer Storm Prophet. Rudy Rodriguez’s statistics first off the claim in dirt routes are fantastic, and this horse was wide every step of the way last time. Carthon is the third most likely winner, at best, but he’s going to get ignored on the tote board in the face of the aforementioned favorites. I believe this gelding has returned in better form this winter following a brief layoff, and I’m excited about this stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. I’ve always felt that two turns would be best for this horse since he’s a steady galloper without any semblance of a turn of foot. Eric Cancel has ridden him aggressively in recent starts, and I’m hoping he can hustle him to the lead this time to set the pace, forcing Blewitt to stalk. Carthon’s recent speed figures give him a chance to pull off the upset, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to outlast them in the lane. Blugrascat’s Smile is the other horse to use. He actually ran quite well to be second after a wide trip last time, but I’m starting to get a little concerned that he’s lost his desire to win races.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 5,6
 

RACE 7: SYNDERGAARD (#2)
Honor Up and Syndergaard have been cross-entered in Monday’s Hollie Hughes, but I would expect them both to run in this race instead. If Honor Up stays in this race, he is likely to go off as the favorite. He’s been in fantastic form ever since switching into the care of Michelle Nevin, having reeled off three victories in four starts for this barn. While Nevin has obviously improved his overall condition, I think the turnback in distance has been the key to this runner’s success. Shorter distances between 6 1/2 and seven furlongs just seem to be ideal, as he possesses a much more potent burst of late speed going those trips. However, now he must stretch out to a mile, and this barn does not have the strongest numbers with horses trying to win back-to-back races in stakes. I respect this runner, but I think this may be the time to take a shot against him at a short price. I prefer Syndergaard, who crossed the wire just a head behind Honor Up in the Say Florida Sandy last time. Whereas Honor Up got to close into honest fractions that day, Syndergaard was the one involved in that pace, chasing three wide throughout. Rajiv Maragh still had plenty of horse when they turned into the stretch, and Syndergaard responded gamely once Honor Up issued his challenge. Ultimately, Syndergaard couldn’t contain the winner’s momentum, but he was battling on gamely through the wire, showing that same gritty determination that we saw in his Champagne effort so long ago. I believe this 5-year-old is finally getting back to top form, and I’m actually less concerned about him getting the mile, given his steady running style and newfound ability to stalk the pace. It remains to be seen if the main track is still playing to inside runners. If so, he may have to be aggressively used to secure the early lead from Stoney Bennett, who is drawn to his outside. The other contender to consider is Twisted Tom, but his greatest asset is his stamina and I’m skeptical that he can reproduce his top form going a mile.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 3,4,6
 

RACE 8: SARATOGA PROMISE (#4)
True Blue Giant is the horse to beat as he makes his second start following a troubled debut. While I acknowledge that this colt has a right to run much better second time out, I have concerns that he’s a bit of a trap in this race. While he was legitimately steadied on the backstretch last time, the runner just behind him Seven Is Heaven was actually far more affected in a chain reaction. True Blue Giant raced greenly thereafter, serving as a serious nuisance to Seven Is Heaven for the rest of their trips. While True Blue Giant finished just ahead of Seven Is Heaven, I would have strongly preferred that rival had he shown up in this race. True Blue Giant nevertheless did run better today’s foe Big Paddy Brown, despite the fact that the latter runner crossed the wire 1 3/4 lengths ahead of him. However, my main concern is rooted in some doubts about the overall quality of that Jan. 26 race. Both True Blue Giant and Big Paddy Brown would have lost by much larger margins had the winner been asked for run in the last eighth. Furthermore, these horses – particularly Big Paddy Brown – rode the rail for a portion of their trips, and I felt that the inside path was very much the place to be on Jan. 26. True Blue Giant feels like a decisive favorite in this spot, and I want to look elsewhere. There are a number of first time starters to consider, and the one that piques my interest is Saratoga Promise. These connections have limited success on the NYRA circuit, but trainer Paul Barrow is quite proficient with first time starters out of town. Over the past 5 years, he is 6 for 24 (25 percent, $3.23 ROI) with first time starters racing with Lasix in sprints. Saratoga Promise is bred to have some ability, since he’s by Violence and is out of a dam who is a half-sister to stakes winners Storm Mesa and She Be Classy. I liked the overall smoothness of this colt’s 10 3/5 seconds workout at the Fasig-Tipton sale from last May and he appears to have drilled well in the mornings in recent weeks. Furthermore, it’s a good sign to see a live rider like Jose Lezcano take the mount.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,7,8