by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 6: 7 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 5 - 7 - 3
RACE 1: MO FLASH (#3)
String Section is the likely favorite as she stretches out in distance for the first time. She has run significantly faster than her rivals with experience in her two prior dirt sprints, and figures to play out as the main speed, along with Mad Dog Matters from the rail. She may not need to improve at all at a mile, but it is worth noting that Jason Servis does not have very strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 24 ($1.08 ROI) with maidens stretching in distance for the first time on the dirt. She’s clearly the horse to beat, but I’m more interested in one of the others with experience at a much more generous price. Mad Dog Matters and Mo Flash come out of the same race on Jan. 26. That was a day that strongly favored horses racing on the rail, which was where Mad Dog Matters spent the majority of her trip. Mo Flash, on the other hand, was traveling about 3 to 4 wide throughout while chasing the pace. She briefly made a move to threaten coming to the top of the stretch before flattening out late as the winner snuck up the inside. Mo Flash is clearly not the fastest horse, but her last race is indeed a stronger effort than it seems. If String Section fails to move forward on the stretch-out, why can’t this Mark Casse trainee spring the upset?
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,5
RACE 4: DEAD BROKE (#1)
The clear horse to beat is Blinded Vision, who has used his ample early speed to record solid speed figures in each of his three career starts. He now makes his first start off the claim by John Toscano, Jr., who has decent, if unspectacular, numbers in this situation. If he maintains his form for the new connections, he should be awfully tough to run down. His main rival is Power Boss, but he’s probably going to need some assistance as a confirmed closer. Given a short price on the favorite, I want to take a shot Dead Broke, who figures to go off at a more appealing price. His speed figures are generally slower than the two aforementioned contenders, but I think he has a right to show improvement on this occasion. His two prior dirt starts came back in July of 2017 when he was a very young two-year-old. He actually faced some talented runners in those races, as Soutache went on to win stakes, and a few others returned to run faster speed figures in subsequent starts. Over the past five years, Bruce Brown is 7 for 36 ($1.94 ROI) first off a trainer change in dirt sprints. For his barn, those are actually pretty good numbers.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7
RACE 6: MISS SIZZLE (#7)
Three of the primary contenders in this race are dropping out of maiden special weight company. The one likely to attract the most support is Magari, and there are definitely something to like about this second-time starter. She was facing a decent field of maidens in her debut last time, and may have been hindered by racing on the rail for a good portion of that race, since Jan. 21 was a day that you wanted to avoid the inside path. H. James Bond knows how to win with a second-time starter, so I think this is a filly that you have to use. I’m taking a small shot against her with the runner drawn just to her outside. Miss Sizzle made two starts about a year ago at Aqueduct and then was put on the shelf. Now she returns in the barn of Linda Rice after making her two prior starts for Mike Hushion. While she disappointed at a short price in her debut, it’s her second start that really interests me. That day, she completely ran off from the field in the opening stages after getting blinkers added for the first time. The early fractions of that race were extremely quick, as the red color-coding and 145 TimeformUS Pace Figure for the first quarter mile indicate. Now she returns from a lengthy layoff, but Linda Rice has good numbers with this move. Over the past five years, she is 9 for 25 (36 percent, $3.63 ROI) with maidens coming off layoffs of greater than 180 days in dirt sprints. Her early speed should be asset in a race that does not feature any horses that are nearly as swift as her.
Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 7: SIR ALFRED (#4)
The two runners likely to attract the most play are Competitiveness and Theory. The former seems like the more reliable option as he makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. However, Rudy is really going to have to improve this horse. While he’s run some competitive speed figures, he’s don so against fairly weak competition. There was just nothing of any quality behind him last time when beaten by Finnegan in a 4-horse field. The Pace Projector is predicting that he may find himself on a clear early lead here, and that helps, but he’s going to need a career-best effort to win. Theory is more of an enigma. He showed early promise, but has steadily been sliding down the class ladder since then, as his career has been plagued by disappointments and layoffs. Now he drops in for a tag for the first time, and Todd Pletcher has poor numbers with this move. I think he’s one to play against here. My top pick is Sir Alfred, who makes his second start off a 13-month layoff. His return effort was actually pretty encouraging. The winner of that race, Rossie Val, got an absolutely perfect trip, saving ground before angling while closing into an honest pace. Sir Alfred was the horse pressing that pace, and did so while racing three wide. The runner-up there, Toohottoevespeak, who also got a wide trip, returned to win with a solid effort in his next start. I like that Chris Englehart moves him up in class off the claim.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,7,8
RACE 9: FLIPPED (#6)
It will be interesting to see what kind of performance we get out of the likely favorite, Anything Pazible. At his best, he would surely beat this field. He finished an excellent third behind eventual stakes winner Sea Foam three back at Aqueduct, but he hasn’t been able to back up that effort with similarly strong subsequent results. However, now he drops in class to face claiming company for the first time and even his two more recent efforts may be good enough to get the job done against this bunch. His main rival is fellow class dropper Comeoncomeoncat. He handled a wet track quite well in his debut, and then may have been hindered by a wide trip in his second start. I’ll certainly use him, but I’m most interested in second-time starter Flipped at a better price. This Jeremiah Engelhart trainee may have needed his debut effort. He was bumped hard from both side just after the start and had trouble recovering through the early stages of that race, climbing down the backstretch. Once he settled down, he finished off his race evenly. He’ll have to improve to contend with the aforementioned two, but he seems like the most likely candidate to take a significant step forward on this occasion.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5,7