by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
RACE 3: MY SACRED PLACE (#2)
Heavy favorite Fort McHenry is curiously spotted in this optional-claiming race, since he must race for the $50,000 tag. While that might seem like a reasonable enough move for a horse with his résumé, let’s remember that the owners paid $1.1 million for this half-brother to California Chrome as a yearling. He’s undoubtedly been a disappointment, and the fact that he’s been gelded and is dropping so abruptly off one poor effort raises major red flags. I think it’s fair to be a little skeptical of that 83 Beyer Speed Figure achieved two back at Gulfstream Park West, since the TimeformUS Speed Figure of 86 seems more in line with the quality of that field. (Also note the first quarter was actually 24 2/5 seconds.). Minor details aside, that performance still makes him the clear horse to beat. But how short of a price do you really want to take on this colt given the question marks? I want to take a shot against him with My Sacred Place. This colt had to drop down to the $30,000 maiden-claiming level to notch his first victory two back, but he accomplished it fairly easily. He was moved back up in class last time and didn’t fare as well, though he didn’t get an ideal trip. Breaking from the rail, he found himself toward the back of the pack behind a slow pace. Jose Lezcano then sent him right down to the inside path in the lane, which probably wasn’t the place to be. This son of Temple City is out of a Grade 3-winning router, so he’s supposed to relish added ground – and it doesn’t matter to me that failed to do it on turf. Furthermore, Jason Servis is 18 for 48 with 3-year-olds stretching out on the dirt over the past 5 years.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,3,4
RACE 5: HARDCORE FOLKLORE (#6)
How can you trust anyone in this perplexing $25,000 claimer? I suppose the horse to beat is Chief Know It All as he seeks his fifth consecutive victory and sixth win in his last 7 starts. However, he compiled that recent streak for Danny Gargan, who was always reluctant to move this horse up in class despite the fact that he has been running speed figures that would have warranted such a move. Now he’s been claimed by low-profile connections. Furthermore, horses claimed away from Gargan are just 19 for 143 (13%, $1.06 ROI) over the past 5 years. Clearly it’s reasonable to expect a regression, and that makes him vulnerable. Shadow Rider seems just as difficult to take as this one-classy runner returns for the $25,000 tag. Rudy Rodriguez has very poor statistics off layoffs like this and you have to wonder if it’s still reasonable to expect this guy to return to form at age eight. Linda Rice has entered a pair, neither of which appeals to me. Monteleone’s form has been steadily declining and he’s questionable to get the distance even under the best of circumstances, while Austostrade was just beating up on significantly weaker foes last time. In my opinion, the most reliable runner is Orpheus, who does seem to be in strong form right now for Michael Tannuzzo. He rarely wins races but he does seem to have gained consistency for this barn. I’m using him prominently, but I think this is a spot where we can get a bit more creative. I’m taking a shot with Hardcore Folklore as he attempts to stretch out in distance. His last race was pretty poor, but it was run over a sloppy track and he was just never involved while facing some superior rivals. Now he’s dropping back down to the same level at which he finished second two back. He did get a strong pace to close into that day, but he nevertheless earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which puts him squarely in the mix against this bunch. The distance is an obvious concern, but I find it interesting that at the start of his career his original connections had initially pegged him as a router. He debuted in routes on turf before going badly off form. He eventually improved in cheap claimers sprinting on dirt last year, and it seems like he’s been pigeonholed as a dirt sprinter ever since. Yet he is a son of stamina influence Curlin out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, so the pedigree is there to handle at least a mile. He should be able to stick closer to the early pace this time and he doesn’t have to improve much at all if I’m right about the current form of some of his foes.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5
RACE 7: HARVEY’S LIL GOIL (#6)
Harvey’s Lil Goil figures to go off as the favorite here, and I’m not trying to beat her. This daughter of American Pharoah ran deceptively well in her turf debut, closing belatedly into a moderate pace while racing wide over a track that was significantly favoring inside runners. It seemed a little curious that Bill Mott moved her immediately to dirt after such a promising start to her career, but it all made sense when she dominated that crew in a six-length romp. Her pedigree indicates that dirt probably should be her preferred surface, since her Tapit-sired dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner I’ll Have Another as well as the multiple graded stakes-winning router Golden Award. Harvey’s Lil Goil showed improved tactical speed last time, and she should work out a good stalking trip going this nine-furlong distance. Her main rival appears to be Water White, who drops out of the Grade 2 Demoiselle. I didn’t think she got the best trip that day, as Manny Franco made the tactical error of not using her tactical speed leaving the gate. She actually broke a length ahead of the eventual winner, Lake Avenue, but he allowed that filly to rush past him early and Water White was subsequently forced to race wide around the clubhouse turn. All things considered, she stayed on well to be fifth and will be a major factor here if able to save more ground from today’s rail post position. The other horse that I’d want to throw into exotics is Ankle Monitor. This four-time winner ships in from Laurel after having run nearly as fast as her local counterparts. She’s a grinding type who should appreciate the stretch-out to two turns, and she’s going to be a square price.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5,7