PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 8:   8 - 2 - 4 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 2: DANNY CALIFORNIA (#3)
Rudy Rodriguez holds a strong hand in this race, sending out impressive recent claiming winner Kumar as well as the improved Traveling. Kumar will beat this field if he runs back to his last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 112, but I think there is reason to be skeptical about his chances to replicate that effort. He got to control the pace going a one-turn mile last time, and now he has to stretch out to two turns in a race that features other speed types. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will have to rate off of Super Silver and Traveling, and he hasn’t been quite as effective from off the pace. That pacesetting duo make plenty of sense as contenders in this spot. Super Silver has had many chances to break through this level and tends to settle for minor awards, but he keeps earning speed figures that suggest he’s good enough to win. Traveling has come alive for Rudy Rodriguez going a one-turn mile, but he’s been successful going two turns in the past. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is Danny California. He obviously needs to rebound after finishing nine lengths behind Traveling when they last met at this level. However, Danny California may have been a bit too close to the pace that day. He was traveling well in the bridle early, but he never was able to make that long sustained run that he produces when ridden as a closer. He stayed on well to close for second going this distance two back when he ran by Super Silver, who got a perfect trip, in the late stages. A repeat of that performance, or even his prior effort against Joe’s Smokin Gun, would make him really tough for this field to handle.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 2,4,5,6

RACE 3: SUNSHINE GAL (#6)
Perhaps Puffery has finally found a field that she can beat, but this mare is a little tough to take at a short price. She’s now finished second at this level in three consecutive starts and hasn’t won a race since late 2018. She was just not quite good enough to overhaul the classy Hay Field in two of her last three starts, but she really had no excuse not to get by a stopping Forgotten Hero two back. This time she lacks an obvious rival so she’s going to be bet down to even-money territory and that just seems like bad value on a horse who hasn’t shown a great willingness to win races. Those looking for an alternative will probably gravitate towards Sadie Lady, who got back on track in her second start for Rob Atras last time. A repeat of that 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure would make her a serious rival for Puffery. However, she earned that claiming victory after setting a pretty slow pace over a speed-favoring surface. This time she may face some more company up front with a speed like Awillaway in the field, and her dirt form overall is not quite as encouraging as some others in here. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Sunshine Gal. I know it looks like she’s in poor form, but you can make some legitimate excuses for her last few races. She’s just not much of a turf horse, so I can excuse her last effort when returning on 7 days’ rest. Prior to that she disappointed at this level on Nov. 7, but she was always too far back that day while facing a pretty tough field at this level. Going back to last summer, she ran well in a few off-the-turf events, earning speed figures that put her within range of today’s favorites. She’s gotten some time off since her 2019 campaign, and she appears to be working very well for this return. I like the rider switch to Manny Franco and I think she’ll be dangerous if he can keep her a bit closer to the early pace this time.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5

RACE 7: NICKY SCISSORS (#1)
I’m not saying anything clever in pointing out that Ice Princess is the most likely winner of this race. She’s been good right from the start, destroying an off-the-turf field by a dozen lengths in her debut. They got a little ambitious in trying the Grade 1 Frizette with her after that, but she actually gave a solid account of herself, improving to finish a decent fourth. Trainer Danny Gargan then gave her some time off, and she got right back on track when dropped in against state-bred company last time, overcoming a slow start to loop the field and win for fun. That last-out 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure is significantly faster than her rivals have run, so she’s a deserving short price off that effort. It also helps that three of the four rivals she faces today finished behind her last time. However, there is one new face in here who intrigues me. Nicky Scissors has run much slower than Ice Princess in her two starts, but I think there are some reasons to be optimistic that she can do better. Jason Servis doesn’t have great statistics with debut runners and she clearly needed that start. She took a big step forward second time out, drawing off to win by more than 10 lengths. While she did get a very favorable pace setup that day, I still liked the way she finished off that affair, galloping out with great energy into the clubhouse turn. Furthermore, that race may be a bit stronger than the speed figures indicate, as a number of runners have already returned to improve. She has to stretch out to the mile for the first time, but Jason Servis is 7 for 12 (58%, $3.08 ROI) with last-out maiden winners going from sprints to route on dirt over the past five years.

Win: 1
Trifecta: 1 with 2 with ALL