by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 3 - 5
RACE 1: LONHTWIST (#3)
At first glance, Master Distiller appears to have this field at his mercy. He’s finished second three times at this level, and this may be the softest group he has encountered. Yet it’s not as if he’s ever raced against a particularly strong set of runners, and that becomes even more apparent when you dig into his recent races. He was facing a pretty weak group two back when losing what was essentially a three-horse race, and then last time, he was supposed to beat Mintz in a race that set up perfectly for him. He’s a classic favorite who looks far more formidable on paper than he actually is. The problem is that there is no clear alternative. I can’t support Iona Mobe, who has quit badly in his two most recent starts and appears bound for the maiden-claiming ranks. Instead, I’m intrigued by Lonhtwist as he returns from a layoff. This colt’s only dirt effort is actually a lot stronger than it seems. He was facing a classy group of maidens that day and set a fast pace while racing on a dead rail. Given those circumstances, it’s not surprising that he came up empty in the last eighth of a mile. He subsequently switched to turf, which made sense given his pedigree. He actually ran very well in his second start against runners who would go on to perform well in the allowance ranks. He got time off after a poor showing in late August and now returns with Lasix added for the first time. He appears to be working quickly, and he possesses the speed to challenge Iona Mobe for the lead. As a turf-inclined runner, I think he may actually be suited to a sloppy, sealed track, which is likely for Sunday.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,4,5
RACE 3: CURLIN CREEK (#6)
With the scratch of Thunder's Honor, Equal the Score becomes the likely favorite for the red-hot Rob Atras barn, which has been winning at better than 50 percent since taking over Robertino Diodoro’s New York stable. Equal the Score was visually impressive in his return last time, but he was beating a weaker group than this one. I wouldn’t discount anything from these connections right now, but this horse needs to improve once again. I believe as many as four entrants have a chance to win, and the one who intrigues me most is Curlin Creek. This gelding was game to win his maiden back in December but then seemed to react badly when wheeled back on seven days’ rest to face winners for the first time. He was claimed out of that spot by Greg DiPrima and got back on track with a very strong effort on Feb. 3. That day featured a strong rail bias, and Curlin Creek was one of the only horses during the entire day to run well with a wide trip. I think he likely will do better than that this time, and this barn has a history of improving runners in their second start off the claim. Over the past five years, DiPrima is 7 for 29 (24 percent, $3.56 ROI) second off the claim in dirt races.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5
RACE 4: INCUBATOR (#3)
Have Another is probably going to go favored, but I’m skeptical of him at a very short price. Jason Servis is known for working miracles with his claims, but it might not be a great sign that he isn’t moving this horse up in class after taking him for $25,000 in January. Usually, Servis is not afraid to move up runners like this, especially those with significant back class, yet he’s keeping the once-classy Have Another at this cheap level. This horse appeared to have completely lost his form when last seen, and I’m skeptical about him handling the one-mile distance. His two main rivals appear to possess similar running styles, and that could end up working in his favor. However, I strongly prefer one of those speed horses. Incubator is making his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, and the barn has excellent numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, Rudy is 5 for 12 (42 percent, $2.69 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes with horses moving up in claiming price by 50 percent or more. Incubator looks significantly cheaper than horses like Have Another and fellow speed Devine Dental, but he’s actually run quite well in his recent starts for Kelly Breen. I loved his aggressive tactics going this distance two back, and he took advantage of a favorable situation last time. His recent TimeformUS Speed Figures stack up very well against his main rivals, so I’m optimistic that he can handle the rise in class. Manny Franco also figures to be very aggressive from the start to secure his inside position ahead of Devine Dental since Incubator is a classic need-the-lead type of runner. If he gets the right trip once again, I think he’ll be tough to reel in.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,5,6
RACE 6: D J’S FAVORITE (#3)
Big Birthday, seeking her second consecutive victory, figures to go off as a heavy favorite in this spot. While she got the job done against N1X allowance foes last time as the 4-5 favorite, I was not overly impressed with that score. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure hardly makes her formidable in this field and she had to work pretty hard to fend off inferior rivals like No Deal and Gypsy Janie. I think she’s going to have to run significantly better to beat today’s group and I want to take a stand against her at what figures to be a very short price. Linda Rice has entered a pair of runners in this race and I think they both merit consideration. Picture Day has some back class and is returning from the layoff here. She appreciates moisture in the track, but she could find 7 furlongs to be a demanding distance off the bench. I’m using her, but my top pick is Linda Rice’s other runner D J’s Favorite. This filly has significantly improved in her recent starts for this barn. Linda Rice often keeps some of her inferior runners a places like Laurel before they’re ready for primetime, and clearly chose to move this one to New York at the right time. She outclassed claiming foes in sloppy conditions on Dec. 21 and then was immediately stretched out to a mile for two starts. She actually ran quite well in both of those races, particularly last time when she tangled with eventual winner Jump Ruler through some taxing early fractions. I believe she’s going to appreciate this slight cutback to 7 furlongs and moisture in the surface will only enhance her chances. Furthermore, Linda Rice has fantastic numbers with quick turnarounds like this. Over the past 5 years, she is 12 for 32 (38 percent, $2.52 ROI) with horses running back in just 7 to 12 days on dirt at Aqueduct. She’s drawn in the perfect post position outside of the other speeds and I believe she’ll be difficult to beat.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 7: BROADWAY BAY (#6)
This is perhaps the most confounding race on the entire card. I suppose Battle of Saratoga is going to be the favorite, though he is a pretty weird horse to make favored in his first start against winners. I realize that he broke his maiden by 12 lengths last time, but he did so against one of the worst maiden special weight fields I’ve ever seen. Furthermore, he was completely dead on the board that day, going off at a preposterous 6-5 in a race where his form suggested he should be 2-5 or lower. His last speed figure puts him in the mix, but it’s not as if he’s terribly formidable if he merely repeats that effort. This horse has been a vet scratch on numerous occasions and I cannot bring myself to pick him on top. The problem is that it’s difficult to find too many positive things to say about the alternatives. A horse like Zabaione might attract some support, but his last race is completely phony. He rode a gold rail on Feb. 9 and was allowed to set a ridiculously slow pace in a race where his main rivals got pretty silly trips. He may make the early lead again here, but the waters get much deeper. Additionally, he’s never shown an affinity for a wet track, and that’s an issue for a number of horses in this race, including Here Comes Tommy. Two horses that should have no trouble with the going are Calculated Risker and Broadway Bay. The former is difficult for me to trust given his recent form, but I think Broadway Bay is an intriguing win candidate. His last race was actually decent when you consider his trip. He was inside throughout in a race that was dominated by horses making outside runs. He got too far behind when following tiring runners into the lane, but he ran on well to be third in the last furlong. Not only does this 8-year-old gelding handle wet surfaces, but he also just loves to win races. He figures to improve in his second start off the layoff and he’s run competitive speed figures on this circuit in the past. I don’t love this rider but as long as he works out a fair trip for him, I think this horse is at least as likely to win as Battle of Saratoga.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 4,7 with ALL