by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 9 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 11 - 6 - 12 - 5
RACE 1: LIGHTNING BUZZ (#4)
Shamrocked is not the kind of favorite that I want to rely on at a very short price. This gelding did run speed figures that would make him the horse to beat here last fall at Belmont, but you have to wonder where he’s been for the past several months. It’s never a good sign to see these cheaper runners head to the sidelines, and this horse in particular displayed some bad characteristics when last seen. He drifted out significantly in the stretch of both of his races at Belmont, playing a part in two disqualifications. The best alternative that I can find is Lightning Buzz. I know that he appears to be off form, but he’s had excuses in his last two starts. Both Jan. 20 and 26 were days that featured strong rails, and Lightning Buzz was racing wide on both occasions. His last start was disappointing even with that excuse, but it’s possible that he didn’t appreciate the quick 6-day turnaround. Now he makes his second start off the claim for Patrick Quick, for whom he ran well as recently as December.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
RACE 4: SIR BALLANTINE (#4)
Combat Controller and Special Story each figure to attract support here as they move up into this starter allowance off wins against claiming company. Combat Controller really improved off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez last time, as he gamely turned away all challengers before holding off the late surge of Praetereo. I think he’s the horse to beat, but Rudy doesn’t have great numbers second off the claim with horses coming off wins. Special Story ran even faster last time out, but his win appeared to be aided by a slow and uncompetitive early pace. He also ran that race for the Robertino Diodoro barn and now makes a negative move to Oscar Barrera III. I could use both of these runners defensively, but the horse I want to bet is Sir Ballantine. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and Sir Ballantine is one of the horses in this field who has shown the ability to effectively pass horses. He’s spent the majority of his career running in longer races, primarily around two turns. However, a quick early pace here should bring him into the race late and allow him to make use of his superior stamina. Furthermore, he gets a trainer change to Danny Gargan, who has done very well in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 21 (33 percent, $3.70 ROI) with horses off a trainer switch and coming off layoffs of 90 days or more on the dirt.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5
RACE 6: ASPHALT PAVING (#7)
This race centers around a pair of runners returning from extended layoffs. The likely favorite is Have Another, who looked bound for stakes company when he was running at Aqueduct last winter. He made eye-catching late runs in a few maiden races before ultimate switching to turf in the spring. He was compromised by a slow pace in the Paradise Creek back in May and is now making his first start since then while dropping in for a tag. He’ll be dangerous if he can get back to his prior form, but he may have his work cut out for him considering the likely pace dynamics of this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. That could help Amen Alley, who figures to be placed relatively close to the pace. However, his lone dirt race at Oaklawn came more than two years ago, and this barn has poor numbers on the dirt with horses coming off extended layoffs. The one I want to bet is Asphalt Paving. He’s not going to be any kind of huge price, but I just think this horse finds himself in the right spot. I really liked his race two back when he did not get an ideal trip and was probably best after getting shuffled back midrace. Then last time, he was just defeated by better horses. He’s not a front-runner, but Paco Lopez figures to take full advantage of his tactical speed from this advantageous outside post position.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,6