PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 7 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 1: TEKILA (#1)
Likely favorite Coal Shaft didn't show much in her turf debut, only getting on track late once the race was basically over. However, she switched to dirt for her second start, and the light bulb appeared to go on. With blinkers added, she was keener in the early going, making an early backstretch move to challenge the leader. She chased that rival for a half-mile and never got past, but nevertheless turned in an improved performance. A repeat of that performance may be good enough here, and can improve in just her third start, but others have plenty of upside as well. I prefer Iaintafraidanoghost out of that race. She finished just a head behind today’s rival Coal Shaft, as both lost to a longshot winner. There’s some doubt about the overall quality of that race, but Jan. 15 was a day that appeared to favor front-runners, so his filly deserves credit for making up ground in the stretch. She’s improved with added distance in each start, and has a right to take another step forward second off the layoff. My top pick is coming in from a different direction. Tekila was no match for the impressive Hit the Woah in her debut, a race that produced five next-out winners. She raced greenly that day, dropping back on the turn after showing some early speed. Yet she was more professional last time, stalking outside before staying on for second. That performance was flattered when winner Hybrid Eclipse returned to win an allowance at Laurel by 6 lengths, third-place finisher Maracuja also came back to win, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 12 points. She shouldn’t mind the one-mile distance based on pedigree.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6

RACE 5: FOREVER CHANGED (#1)
Invaluable is a deserving favorite as she moves back up to this N1X condition after defeating starter allowance foes last time. The last time she ran at this level she just missed to subsequent Grade 3 stakes winner Mrs. Danvers, and two back she ran exceptionally well against males when second to today’s third race favorite Tenderfoot. She finally go back to the winner’s circle last time going six furlongs, defeating today’s rival Sirenic. As long as she holds her form, she’s going to be tough for this field to handle. The only knock is that she’s going to be a pretty short price as an obvious standout in this field. Sirenic is an alternative that some may consider based on how well she ran last time, winning a starter allowance event by over 9 lengths. However, she benefited from a very strong rail bias on Feb. 8, getting to the lead and the rail soon after the start. She could be the speed again this time, but she’s struggled over wet tracks before and was no match for others in this race in prior outings. I want to lean in a different direction. Forever Changed has tried this level in each of her last two starts. She ran well to be second two back in the mud, putting forth an effort that gives her a chance here. She regressed last time, but she was taken too far off the pace early in a race that was dominated on the front end with slow early fractions. She never had a chance to make up much ground and should rebound with a more aggressive ride here. She’s also run well over wet surfaces in the past. The other horse that I would use is Glass Ceiling, who ran very well two and three back before disappointing as the favorite last time. She also likes it wet and has the tactical speed to work out a fair trip.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,4,5,6

RACE 6: CLENCH (#8)
Reed Kan was fairly disappointing last time out, fading to fifth as the 3-1 second choice after winning in his return from the layoff in January. A repeat of that effort two back would make him pretty tough to beat in this field, especially as he drops back down to that same $40k level. However, that’s a race out of which a few horses have returned to do poorly, calling into question the overall quality of that field. On the other hand, his loss last time isn’t as bad as it seems. He was aggressively ridden early, but got outrun to the lead by the speedy Happy Farm, compromising his chances. His true ability probably falls somewhere in between those two efforts. And he may have an advantage here, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring the early leader. Square Shooter and Clench look like the two main rivals as they move up in class. Square Shooter defeated Clench when they met on Jan. 16 in the mud, and the former does appear to be in very strong form right now. However, he was a voided claim (by the vet) out of that race, and it’s taken him 6 weeks to get back to the races. My top pick is Clench, who returned since that Jan. 16 loss to win for $32k on Feb. 8. He was only beating three rivals that day, but he did so closing outside over a track that was starting to favor rail runners. He’s now been claimed by David Duggan, who is an excellent 5 for 18 (28%, $3.98 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. Clench handles a wet track, and he has the tactical speed to be perched just off Reed Kan early.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,3,4,7