by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 9 - 10 - 2
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 10 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 11 - 9 - 1 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 1 - 7
RACE 2: STOLE E (#3)
Stole E is likely to be the slight favorite in this spot, and I’m not trying to beat him. This highly regarded colt was ambitiously placed against stakes company in his first two starts, both of which came on turf. It’s possible that his connections were initially encouraged to try turf given his strong OBS Sales workout over a synthetic surface, in which he went a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds. His pedigree doesn’t really suggest that turf is supposed to be his preferred surface, as all three of his siblings seemed to prefer dirt. I actually thought he ran quite well in his career debut, as he fought on to be sixth over a boggy course at Laurel (TimeformUS Track Condition Rating of 2). The rail was not the place to be on that particular day, so he deserves credit for splitting the field despite his inside trip. He was badly overmatched next time out in a tougher spot at Belmont, and he just never got into a competitive position as he seemed to get lost racing relatively wide in a large field. John Terranova has solid numbers with this move, going 6 for 27 (22 percent, $2.69 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt in sprints over the past 5 years. I would expect Stole E to show more speed this time with the addition of blinkers. His main rival may be Running Violence, who steps way up in class after barely losing a maiden claiming race in his debut. Charlton Baker has done well in a small sample with maidens off the claim, but I didn’t see enough out of this horse first time out to endorse him at a relatively short price. One of the most interesting alternatives to the favorite is Dr Burt, who debuts for Danny Gargan. I like this pedigree, as he is a full brother to both Pecan Pattie and Flick of an Eye, but he may want more ground in the future. Brees Bayou may be the first time starter that you want, since he worked a fast 10 1/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton sale last year and goes out for a barn that can do well with firsters at Aqueduct.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 6: TAPPANZEE (#1)
Awillaway is the horse to beat in this spot after she finished a distance second to Flush in her Jan. 11 debut. While the winner was impressive, it’s hard to gauge the overall quality of that race due to the fact that all of the other participants were first time starters. Her 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her formidable against this bunch, but I’m curious to see if horses coming out of that race will be able to repeat their numbers. Ralph D’Alessandro has not had success with his move, as he is 0 for 27 with second time starters in dirt maiden races over the past 5 years, with just 4 of those hitting the board. She’s not the kind of horse I want to bet at a short price, so I’m looking elsewhere. The first time starters are mildly interesting. First Forever figures to take the most money for Linda Rice, but she doesn’t have much pedigree. She looked fine working a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the OBS Sale in March, but Linda doesn’t always have these horses ready to fire at first asking. I actually prefer the Gary Contessa firster, Today Comes Once. Sire Cross Traffic has gotten off to a solid start as a stallion, winning with 21 percent of his starters thus far and producing champion Jaywalk. I liked this filly’s 10 2/5 breeze in April and she appears to be working well since then. Her dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Good Luck Gus, so it’s possible that this one could have some quality. I’m using these runners, but my top pick is Tappanzee. She didn’t show much in her first couple of turf starts, but I think she’s been subtly improving in her recent races. She was a strong second behind impressive winner Jot two back, and I thought she ran deceptively well in her return to dirt last time. I’ve been saying for a while now that the speed figures for that Dec. 23 maiden race won by She Takes Charge are too low. Seven horses have now run back out of that race, and they have improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by anywhere between 17 and 47 points. If you look at the Beyers instead, you see a similar phenomenon occurring. Tappanzee actually did well to chase the pace that day and finish ahead of today’s rival Ja’s Malibu (another filly who improved her figure out of that race). I’m hoping the addition of blinkers helps her to focus, and she figures to get somewhat overlooked in a confusing race.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,7,10
RACE 7: OUR AMERICAN STAR (#3)
I found this race to be a real head-scratcher. I think you can make a valid case for just about every horse in this field, except perhaps Cross Multiply. Mister Humor, Lutheran Rags, and Unsullied figure to vie for favoritism, and none of them really excite me. Mister Humor has generally been facing cheaper foes at Parx, Lutheran Rags goes out for a barn that is 0 for 13 off layoffs of this type, and Unsullied rode a rail bias when he achieved his career-best speed figure on Jan. 26. I’m inclined to look to some of the bigger prices. A horse that makes plenty of sense is Magnetron. I’m somewhat concerned that he needs a wet track to produce his best form, but he was a little overmatched last time against some classier horses. Either of his efforts from late 2018 would be good enough to beat this field, and he figures to appreciate the stretch-out to 7 furlongs more than some others. I’m using him, but it’s not as if he’s going to be a much bigger price than the favorites. I think this is a spot where we can get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Our American Star. I realize that 1 for 28 horses are difficult for most handicappers to accept, but at least his maiden win was relatively recent. He’s faced winners twice since then, and he’s just been overmatched both times. He actually finished ahead of Magnetron last time, and he had no chance against New York-bred allowance horses prior to that. He’s run speed figures that would make him a player in this race on multiple occasions, and it’s not as if those $40,000 maiden claiming fields are that much weaker than the group he faces today. I like the rider switch to Reylu Gutierrez and he’s going to be an enticing price.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,6,7
RACE 8: MISS MARILYN (#11)
Filly Joel has to be considered the horse to beat despite the fact that she finished behind today’s rival Afleet Destiny in last fall’s Demoiselle going this distance. In my estimation, the difference in trips for these two fillies certainly eclipses the gap between them at the wire. The Demoiselle was run early in the day on the Cigar Mile card, and the paths down toward the rail were clearly a disadvantage for any horses that spent a significant amount of time racing on them. For whatever reason, Jose Lezcano sent Filly Joel over to the rail heading into the clubhouse turn and she was never able to get outside. All things considered, I thought she ran an admirable race to be third, whereas Afleet Destiny just picked up pieces for second while racing wide for the last half of the race. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I believe Filly Joel is versatile enough to work out a decent trip from a stalking position. I’m using her prominently, but there are some others to consider. The pair of fillies exiting the maiden race on Dec. 14 figure to attract some attention as they bookend this field. Always Shopping does project to get the better trip from her rail position, but she will be seeking her first lifetime victory in this Busanda. Miss Marilyn has to overcome a wide post (though at least one entrant is expected to scratch), but I think she is the more likely of the two to relish this stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. Miss Marilyn is built like an older horse, with a lengthy frame and an expansive stride, and her pedigree has a good mix of speed and stamina influences. Danny Gargan does very well with horses coming off maiden wins on the dirt, going 9 for 32 (28 percent, $4.88 ROI) over the past 5 years. While I don’t love the outside draw, she has the speed to get a forward position and at least she won’t get trapped inside at any point.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,9
Trifecta: 9,11 with 9,11 with 1,3,7
RACE 9: AMERICAN POWER (#5)
This race completes an interesting late double sequence, as it drew another large and competitive group of runners. The enigma of this race is Chateau, who exits an 11-length score against cheap claiming company and now steps up into the allowance ranks for Jason Servis. A repeat of that 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure would make him awfully tough to beat, but he faces a much different scenario today. The Pace Projector is predicting a more contested pace, as Chateau will have to deal with speed Bourbon N Rye, who is drawn outside of him. I wouldn’t put anything past Jason Servis, but I don’t quite trust this horse. The horse that figures to benefit most from the likely pace setup is American Power. This ex-Jason Servis runner finally seems to be rounding back into top form for the Linda Rice barn. He ran deceptively well two back to close third in a race that featured a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures) and then last time I thought he would have won with a different trip. Junior Alvarado took the inside path into the stretch with him, but found himself caught behind a wall of horses for about a sixteenth of a mile. He finally angled American Power outside at the eighth pole and he came with an eye-catching late run, but he couldn’t quite catch the winner. This time American Power has to bet an honest early tempo ahead of him and I think they’ll have trouble holding him off. I’ll use him with Chateau, as well as horses like the honest Missle Bomb and the returning Shamrocked.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,4,7 with 1,4,7,8,11