by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 3 - 1A - 2
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 7 - 6
RACE 2: CAIN IS ABEL (#7)
Almost all of the major contenders in this race are exiting maiden victories. Big Thicket is likely to attract some attention off his reasonably fast win going this distance last time. That race may have been a bit tougher than the $50,000 claiming tag would suggest, since both this colt and the runner-up improved significantly on their prior form. The runner coming into this race with the fastest recent speed figure is Dig That Mine, who returns from a brief layoff for Steve Klesaris. However, he was racing on a strong rail when he won last time, and he may find it difficult to stretch his speed out this route distance coming off the break. I’m trying to beat these horses with Cain Is Abel. In terms of speed figures, he’s yet to run fast enough to compete again the favorites here, but I think he’s better than he appears to be. Belleville Spring, whom he defeated in that victory last time, returned to win while recording a Beyer Speed Figure that was 31 points higher than the number he earned on Jan. 13. TimeformUS PPs had that last race going a bit faster, but the ‘c’ next to the Race Rating indicates that we cannot have much confidence in the figure’s accuracy due to changing track conditions throughout the day. Cain Is Abel had been bet strongly in his debut and should have gotten plenty of fitness out of his last race, which was run over an extremely tiring track. He is a full brother to Mr. Buff, who won going route distances, so I’m not that concerned about the stretch-out.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 7 with 1,4 with ALL
RACE 5: FOREVER DREAMS (#7)
Simona figures to go off as the favorite here after twice running well at this level late in her 2-year-old season. She finished a distant second to eventual Busanda winner Midnight Disguise last time out and figures to appreciate the return to sprinting here. Her main rival is Lune Lake, who was disqualified after causing a bumping incident at the start last time. She still ran reasonably well thereafter, but I thought she hung a bit in the late stages and may find herself facing a slightly tougher field this time. I’m trying to beat this pair with Forever Dreams. This filly has been badly overmatched in two of her three starts on this circuit, losing to talented fillies like Split Time and Miss Hot Stones in her two attempts against maiden special weight company. She just didn’t want to go a mile last time, which explains the large margin of defeat. Prior to that, she had run a competitive race at this level, and if she can run back to that Dec. 9 effort, I think she’s a major player in this spot.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5
RACE 6: PRETENTIOUS (#5)
Special Story appears to be the horse to beat as he drops in class in his second start for the Robertino Diodoro barn. He may have been placed a bit too ambitiously last time since his prior races in California all came against cheaper claiming foes. Furthermore, Jan. 20 was a day that featured a strong rail and Special Story was about three to four wide throughout. He handled a mile last fall, so he should be fine stretching out in distance. The primary threats to the favorite are coming off layoffs. I find it somewhat curious that Dynamax Prime is dropping in for the claiming tag given that he’s still eligible for a N1X New York-bred allowance race, and we’re running one that would have suited him as the seventh race on this card. I’m less concerned about the drop in class for Pretentious, who would have to face open company at the allowance level and is just not quite good enough to compete against those horses. Furthermore, Bill Mott has had success with this move in a very small sample. Over the past five years, he is 3 for 4 ($5.30 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more running for claiming tags of $25,000 or less – and the lone horse that lost in that sample finished second.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,8