by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 9 - 10
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 3
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 5 - 8
RACE 3: STREET TRUST (#6)
With the scratch of Royal Albert Hall, Shalako figures to inherit the favorite's role. He moves up in class after beating $12,500 claimers last month. While he does have past speed figures that would make him quite formidable in this race, it’s been a struggle for him to get back into form over the past several months. Some might view it as a positive sign that Rudy Rodriguez displays confidence with this class move, but he is just 4 for 25 (16%, $0.77 ROI) with last-out winners moving up in claiming price by 50 percent or more on dirt over the past five years. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Street Trust second off the claim for Ray Handal. This gelding didn’t lift a hoof last time at Parx, but I’m hoping that was due to the quirky surface there, which seemed to be particularly dead on Dec. 1. Street Trust was not the only horse to perform below expectations in that race, and at least one other notable contender returned out of that spot to immediately rebound with a much faster performance. Street Trust had consistently run competitive speed figures prior to last time, and he’s also a horse who has shown a real affinity for this 1 1/8-mile distance. As long as he gets a little pace to close into, he should be charging late.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4
RACE 4: MICROMILLION (#1)
I’m Fine’s Ellis Park debut was fairly eventful, as she broke about two lengths behind the field, was hustled up into mid-pack position early, got shuffled back on the far turn, and then came again in the lane despite having to alter course. There is obviously some ability here, but the question is whether she can transfer that form to a new barn and make the transition to dirt. Both of her siblings to race showed a preference for turf, but her second dam Caressing is a dirt stakes winner and she produced Travers winner West Coast. Surface questions aside, I’m Fine’s obvious natural ability makes her the horse to beat, but I am somewhat concerned about how cold this barn has been over the past two months. My top pick is one of two Todd Pletcher runners in this field. Micromillion returns from an extended layoff and stretches out for the first time. It’s hard to know what to make of her 2-year-old form, since she contested a couple of fairly weak early season races that haven’t produced much in terms of quality. On the other hand, her pedigree says she would have wanted no part of those sprint distances. She’s by dirt marathoner Micromanage, a stakes winner at distances ranging from one mile and 70 yards to 1 3/4 miles. Her dam’s only win came at seven furlongs, but she handled routes and the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Nobiz Like Shobiz. Notably, over the past five years Pletcher is 6 for 11 (55%, $3.91 ROI) with maidens coming off layoffs of 180 days or more trying a route for the first time on dirt.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,9,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 3,6,8,9,10
RACE 5: QUIETUDE (#6)
I respect both of the favorites in this race. Collegeville Girl would be pretty tough for this field to handle if she runs back to her victory at Belmont on Oct. 25, but she was surprisingly dull when she returned at Aqueduct last time, so there are definitely some concerns about her reliability. Prairie Fire figures to attract slightly more support after beating starter-allowance foes just last week. She won that race on relatively short rest, and now returns off a similarly short break to contest this race. Some may be concerned about that aggressive schedule, but Linda Rice has fantastic statistics in this situation. Over the past five years, Rice is 11 for 23 (48%, $3.15 ROI) with horses returning in one to nine days in dirt sprints, and she’s 5 for 9 when those runners are coming off wins. It’s reasonable to expect that Prairie Fire will maintain her form, but she will have to prove she can rally from farther back here, since this race contains more speed than she encountered last time. That was an issue two starts back when she found herself badly outrun in the early stages of that Dec. 28 race at this level. She only finished a length ahead of fellow closer Quietude that day, and I thought the Ribaudo trainee actually had the tougher trip. Quietude was guided all the way back to last in that 13-horse field, and was placed in a tight spot inside of Prairie Fire on the far turn. Coming to the quarter pole, both fillies weren’t in ideal spots to make up ground, but I thought Quietude had slightly more difficulty getting out from in behind tiring runners. All things considered, she did well to pass over half the field that day and I expect a better effort this time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,8,9,10
RACE 7: SCILLY CAY (#5)
Dream Bigger figures to off as a prohibitive favorite once again, and for good reason. While he’s only won twice in five starts, he’s had legitimate excuses on a couple of occasions. He had the misfortune of running into the eventual Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law in his debut at Saratoga, and then last time he was undoubtedly best when surviving a fast pace to just miss in that $500,000 New York Stallion Series Stakes. He’s earned TimeformUS Speed Figures of 103 and above in all five career starts, and only one of his rivals, Harris Bay, has ever earned a figure in that range in their prior starts. If this Rudy Rodriguez trainee maintains his form, he’s going to be difficult to beat. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and the scenario figures to benefit Dream Bigger, who should find himself in a controlling position after the scratch of Convict. Harris Bay is one alternative to consider as he attempts to rebound to the form that carried him to a debut victory over the favorite. However, his most recent outing in the Notebook was quite disappointing. My top pick is Scilly Cay, who goes out for the powerful Linda Rice barn. This colt was a typical Rice firster in Saratoga, as he apparently needed that start. He came back with an improved performance off a brief layoff at Belmont and then took a giant step forward when stepped up against stakes company last time in the Notebook. That race was run during a time when horses attempting to rally through kickback appeared to be at a disadvantage, yet Scilly Cay gamely came through inside at the quarter pole and made a strong rally through the stretch in a race where few others made up ground. He has to continue that forward progression to have a chance at beating Dream Bigger this time, but his worktab coming into this race would appear to suggest that he’s doing well.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 3,4
RACE 8: KILMARKNOCK (#4)
There are many ways to go in this perplexing finale. First you have to decide when you want to focus on runners with experience or first time starters. I’m gravitating more towards runners in the former group, as I believe a number of them have a right to improve in this spot. Bronze Lion figures to attract some support after getting bet down to 5-1 against maiden special weight company in his debut. He didn’t run well at all that day, but he did find himself in against an unusually strong field for the level. Over the past 5 years, the Asmussen barn is 3 for 9 (33%, $3.00 ROI) with second time starters dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company in dirt sprints at Aqueduct and Belmont, so he has a right to step forward. Future Book also gets class relief, but I would have liked to see him show some more signs of life in his second start last time. My top pick is a runner who has already raced for this maiden claiming tag. Kilmarknock seems like a good candidate to step forward in his second career start. He did not get a great trip first time out, as he found himself in tight quarters getting shuffled back through the first quarter mile of his foggy debut. Considering that early trouble, he did well to reengage in chasing the leaders on the turn before staying on evenly in the stretch. Trainer Rob Falcone does many things well, but he has had no success with first time starters, so it stands to reason that a youngster in his barn can improve with experience. As for the first time starters, Wesworld seems like the most dangerous as he ships in from Turfway Park for Wesley Ward. This runner has a pedigree to be quick, though it seems like more turf breeding than anything. Ward does better with his 2-year-olds, but he can certainly win with a 3-year-old in this situation. Mo Lightning and Catzalionbythetale have better pedigrees for these conditions, but that might not be a positive since they’re still debuting for the $40,000 tag.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7,8