by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 9 - 7
Race 8:   10 - 4 - 2 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: MAGNETRON (#5)
While I am picking against heavy favorite Sharpe and Ready, I don’t want to mislead anyone as to his chances. I readily acknowledge that this horse is the most likely winner even though I do have some reservations about him. The problem with Sharpe and Ready is that he just seems a little too obvious. I made him a conservative 6-5 on the morning line, but it’s conceivable that he could go to post at odds much lower than that. There would be good reason for that, because he will win this race if he runs back to his return effort in October. However, he benefited from a slow early pace that day and he may just have been ready to fire off the layoff. I didn’t like his effort last time, as he failed to show his customary early speed and couldn’t make an impact. Now he’s been switched into Rudy Rodriguez’s barn and is dropping in for a tag for the first time. While this may seem like a positive sign at first glance, Rudy does not have strong numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 12 for 58 (21 percent, $1.13 ROI) with horses making their first starts off a trainer switch while entered for a tag in dirt sprints. He’s clearly had some physical issues, so I’d actually feel more comfortable if a horse like this was moving up in class rather than down. I want to take a shot against him with Magnetron. I know he looks significantly slower than the favorite, but he has been steadily improving in recent starts and is now in the best form of his career since the claim by Bruce Brown. He actually ran deceptively well two back when he was steadied on the rail in upper stretch, and certainly would have finished ahead of today’s rival Shortlist with a clean trip. Then last time, I thought he ran well within the context of that race, as he was the only runner to close behind impressive winner Monteleone. It’s possible that he just preferred a wet track, but I think he’s improving and will offer value as one of the longer prices in here.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,2,6
 

RACE 5: TEN TWENTY NINE (#2)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and such a scenario is obviously going to benefit likely favorite Leap to Glory. This horse’s recent form leaves a lot to be desired, but I cannot deny that he fits this race very well. He actually ran better than his finishing position would indicate last time, as he was chasing a very fast pace that fell apart. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will wake him up, as he was successful wearing them over the summer. He’s the one to beat, but this is not the kind of runner that I want to bet at a short price. The problem with this race is that there are very few attractive alternatives. I suppose horses like Unsullied and Desert Lights offer some appeal, but each of them would need to improve slightly on their recent form. I think this is a race where we can get a bit more creative, so my top pick is Ten Twenty Nine. His flaws are obvious, as he’s not really a winning type and his closing running style doesn’t exactly fit the expected dynamics of this race. However, he’s one of the few horses in this field that may be entering the race in top form. This runner’s return from the layoff last time was fairly encouraging. That race featured a relatively slow early pace and was dominated on the front end. Rider Joey Martinez made a slight error on the turn as he tried to go inside a tiring rival and had to wait for room, but his mount nevertheless put in a solid late rally once clear in the lane. I realize he wasn’t facing the strongest field, but it’s not as if there are any formidable foes in this spot. This horse is going to get overlooked in the wagering and I think he’s going to outrun his odds.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7,8
 

RACE 6: MENTAL MODEL (#8)
The two best runners with experience appear to be Erlich and Midnight Curfew. The former may win this race if he runs back to his one-turn effort on Nov. 10 when he was a game second behind the promising Tacitus. However, I didn’t like the way he faded last time after setting a fairly slow early pace. I realize nine furlongs was too far for him, but he should have put up more of a fight. I prefer Midnight Curfew, who exits a very strong maiden race on the Cigar Mile undercard. While he was no match for the top two that day, he did run better than it appears. The rail was not the place to be through the first half of that card and he was down inside for much of his trip. If he repeats that performance or takes even a slight step forward, I think he’ll be difficult to beat. I’m using him prominently, but there are some intriguing first time starters in this race. The one that I want to bet is Mental Model. Chad Brown seems to ship horses up from Florida with intention at this time of year, and this colt appears to be working well down at Palm Meadows. He has the pedigree to be decent since his dam is a half-sister to a pair of UAE Oaks winners, Folk and Danuta. Over the past five years, Brown is 7 for 30 (23 percent, $3.06 ROI) with first-time starters in scheduled dirt routes, and 4 of those victories came at Aqueduct. At a bigger price, I would also want to include Robert Ribaudo’s firster Habitue. He worked in company with talented 2-year-old Pulsate on Dec. 31, and he’s bred to be a capable dirt router.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta: 7,8 with 7,8 with 1,2,3,5
 

RACE 8: THERE GOES JOSE (#10)
I don’t have any major knocks against deserving favorite La Cat Warrior, who seems like the most talented horse in this race. He’s raced sparingly since returning from a layoff earlier this year, but he’s nevertheless earned a series of speed figures that make him pretty formidable against this mediocre group. While he lost at this level last time, he was unfortunate to run into the class-dropping Formal Start, who is just superior in ability to every horse in this race. If La Cat Warrior merely repeats his last two efforts, he is probably going to win. However, this horse clearly has some physical issues and I don’t want to totally rely on him at a very short price. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and I think pace is an important aspect of this race. The obvious horse that should benefit from a speed-favoring scenario is Thefinalcrazydude, who nearly wired a field at the tougher $25,000 level two back. I wouldn’t be too concerned about his last race, since he ran into a new version of Chateau, who was transformed in his second start off the claim by Jason Servis. The winner earned a massive 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his effort, so Thefinalcrazydude was basically on a suicide mission chasing him through the opening furlongs. I think he will run much better here, but he may have to deal with another rival on the front end. Based on form, There Goes Jose isn’t quite as good as Thefinalcrazydude, but he does figure to be a much more enticing price in this race. What makes There Goes Jose a more appealing wagering proposition is the trainer switch to Rob Atras, who has sent out a trio of live runners since taking over some horses from Robertino Diodoro. A few of those runners have improved on their prior form and There Goes Jose doesn’t have to run much faster than his runner-up effort two back to be a major player in this spot. Like Thefinalcrazydude, he’s coming off a dismal effort last time out. However, he had a legitimate excuse that day as he completely blew the break and rushed up to chase the leaders before fading. David Cohen basically eased him in the stretch, exaggering the margin of defeat. I like the rider switch to Junior Alvarado and he should use this horse’s speed as a weapon from the outside post position.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,6,8