by David Aragona
Sunday’s card reaches its climax in race 8, the featured East View Stakes for New York-bred 3-year-old fillies. English Soul and Midnight Disguise are likely to vie for favoritism. I actually think the strategy to successfully betting this race is trying to beat English Soul. She’s primarily a turf horse who has taken advantage of sloppy, sealed racetracks in off-the-turf events. With a much drier main track to race over tomorrow, I believe she’s vulnerable. Midnight Disguise is unlikely to offer much value, but she just seems like the kind of filly that should appreciate stretching back out to a mile as an imposing daughter of Midnight Lute. Impressive maiden winner Cryinthemoonlight is the other runner that I would lean on.
There are a number of competitive events taking place prior to the East View. Below I’ve highlighted the wagering opportunities that interest me.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 3: 6 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 9 - 7
Race 5: 10 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 8 - 11 - 3
Race 8: 8 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 9: 10 - 1 - 11 - 4
RACE 1: ROAD TO PERFECTION (#2)
Loose figures to go favored as she looks for her third straight win since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. While she’s not meeting the toughest field, she will have to deal with a stretch-out in distance, and that could make her slightly vulnerable. The logical alternative is Andesine, who handles a mile and had to steady briefly while making a mid-race move into contention last time. I’ll use her, but the horse that I want to bet is Road to Perfection. I know that her two starts since returning from the layoff look pretty disappointing, but she was facing much tougher fields in those spots. Now she’s dropping back to a realistic class level. If she can run back to some of the speed figures she was posting a year ago, she’ll be a major threat to win.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6
RACE 2: PERINA’S PRIDE (#5)
The two main players appear to be Maddizaskar and Pico Chick. Maddizaskar would be formidable if she were to run back to her effort two back, but she’s somewhat inconsistent and therefore hard to trust. I prefer Pico Chick out of the two favorites. While it’s usually not a great sign when trainers drop horses so dramatically, John Terranova has fantastic numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 13 (62 percent, $7.38 ROI) with claimers dropping in class by 50 percent or more. Those are some eye-catching numbers. The rest of the field would need to improve in order to beat this pair, but there’s one horse that appears to have the potential to do so. Perina’s Pride has been sent to the gate at some massive prices this year. She actually has not gone off at less than 12-1 in her last 11 starts. Considering that lack of support, she’s actually outperformed expectations on a few occasions, especially in her two recent third-place finishes. She delivered those efforts while racing for prior trainer Gaston Grant, who gets an overall TimeformUS Trainer Rating of just 59. Now she’s been claimed by Robertino Diodoro, a 91-rated trainer who gets a 93 Trainer Rating first off the claim. This seems like a shrewd acquisition of a filly who has subtly been rounding into top form.
Win: 5
Exacta Box: 5,6
RACE 5: LITTLE NANNY (#10)
It’s hard to be too confident in anyone in this race, since the majority of the runners have shown very little in the afternoons – hence a first-time starter getting designated as the morning-line favorite. I don’t want any of the fillies exiting the Dec. 9 race won by Caoimhe. That was a pitiful field that may have been even worse than the speed figure suggests. The only runner in this field that appears to have significant upside is Little Nanny. There was an ugly incident at the start of that Dec. 17 race, and she took the worst of it, as she was bumped hard from both sides just a few strides out of the gate. Despite getting sawed off so severely, she actually made a decent backstretch move to advance into midpack. From there, she got tired late, but still stayed on well for fourth. I expect her to show more speed under Paco Lopez this time, provided that she’s able to get away cleanly.
Win/Place: 10
RACE 6: NOBLE AND TRUE (#1)
This race centers around class dropper Driven West, who is the shorter-priced of two Jason Servis runners in this field. If he runs back to his prior form, the rest of this field is probably running for second. However, you have to be somewhat concerned about all of the layoffs that this horse has needed. He required at least two months between each start in 2017, and now has not raced for three months while dropping in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. I think he’s vulnerable here. I’m trying to beat him with Noble and True, who is finally stretching out to a more appropriate distance after two consecutive six-furlong races. Over the past five years, David Jacobson is 25 for 68 (37 percent, $2.79 ROI) with horses going from sprints to dirt routes racing for claiming tags of $20,000 or less. Noble and True needs at least a mile to be effective, and he gets that today.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5
RACE 7: QUAI VOLTAIRE (#4)
I suppose J J’s Dreaming deserves to be favored off his relatively fast maiden score, his only start on dirt. However, now he’s drawn in the outside post position as part of a much larger field, and he must deal with other speed. I think he’s a contender, but he’s unlikely to offer value this time. This is a relatively weak race for this level, so I think it’s wise to consider horses that you would often dismiss in N1X allowance races. One of those is Prophet’s Cat. The main knock against this 7-year-old gelding is that he so rarely wins. However, he’s run speed figures that make him competitive here, and his last effort against a much tougher group suggests that he’s in decent form. I’ll use him, but I can’t pick him on top. Instead, my top selection is Quai Voltaire. At first glance, this horse looks too cheap to compete against this group. After all, he needed to get dropped in for a $40,000 tag to break his maiden in his 17th start. On the other hand, he’s actually run two of his best career races in his only two starts at a mile. After all, Givetheman A Cigar, whom he defeated in that Nov. 22 race, is the same horse that J J’s Dreaming defeated last time by a similar margin.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,8,11
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,7