PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   1A - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   7 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 9:   6 - 1 - 3 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 5: SHIRL'S DELIGHT (#3)

My Betsy (#6) has run well in all three starts, but hasn’t exactly progressed much from a speed figure standpoint since the summer at Saratoga. She ran well in those first couple of starts, but then went to the sidelines for a few months. She returned last month with a solid second behind Occult, who starts as one of the favorites in the Busanda on Saturday, but I would have liked to see her put up more of a fight. The slight cutback to 7 furlongs shouldn’t bother her, and she figures to be right there at the end with her typical effort. I just thought some others had a bit more upside. After the scratch of my original top pick, I'm happy to elevate second time starter Shirl’s Delight (#3). This filly took a bit of money took a bit of money on debut and actually tried to show some speed after breaking a step slowly. She just got a little too keen racing down the backstretch, as Jorge Vargas tried to restrain her behind a moderate pace. She ultimately faded after making a mild move on the turn, but nevertheless showed some hints of ability. I would expect her to show much more speed in her second start, and I think she can outrun a horse like La Grotte (#7), who may also go forward from the outside post position. That Tom Morley trainee took a big step forward last time after having a major excuse in her prior start. However, I want to see it again in a race that may feature a more competitive pace.

WIN: #3 Shirl's Delight, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7: MONEY MIKE (#5)

Likely favorite Lastchanceatglory (#2) has been pretty popular at the claim box, changing hands in each of his last 6 starts. And it’s understandable why he’s appealing, since he’s just a neck shy of having won 4 of his last 5 starts. He comes off a decisive victory at this $40k level for Rob Atras, but he’s moving into another hot barn. Linda Rice is 12 for her last 24 (50%, $3.38 ROI) first off the claim at Aqueduct over the past 2 months or so, as of Thursday. He’s obviously the horse to beat, but his form is exposed and I think he’s landed in a race that features some others with upside at better prices. I don’t want to write off Famished (#4) just because he finished over 4 lengths behind the favorite last time. He did get a good trip that day, but this Horacio De Paz trainee has run some superior speed figures in the past and may appreciate getting back on a fast track. Another intriguing entrant is American Rule (#3), who returns from a 6-month layoff. He has plenty of prior races that give him a chance here. While the layoff is a concern, it’s worth noting that he’s not in for a tag. Orlando Noda has actually won with his last two starters off similar layoffs at Aqueduct, both in January. One of those, Glory Road, won in a similar situation, in a $40k claimer with the tag waived, ridden by Davis. I considered him, but I wanted to go in a different direction for my top pick. Money Mike (#5) seems like an odd participant in this race, as he’s primarily been a sprinter. His lone prior attempt at a mile didn’t go well, but I did like the way he finished in a two-turn 7-furlong race at Charles Town last year, a performance that may have been better than it looks. He is also bred to go longer, being out of the classy Ahh Chocolate, a Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He put in a relentless rally from off the pace to beat a field of conditioned claimers last time, making his third start in just two weeks. This is a much tougher spot, but he has been claimed by Jose Camejo, who is 17 for 53 (32%, $2.68 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. I think this horse deserves another chance going longer, and he may be ready for a step forward now that he’s had 6 weeks between starts.

WIN: #5 Money Mike, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8: WHAT’S UP BRO (#7)

There are three main players in this New York-bred allowance affair. D’ont Lose Cruz (#6) could go favored as he switches into the barn of David Duggan after making an auspicious start to his career for the now retired Rick Schosberg. After just getting nailed on the wire in his debut, he beat a very good horse in the talented Mariachi to break his maiden. He perhaps didn’t run quite as well last time when losing the Notebook as the favorite, unable to fend off a game Acoustic Ave. He crossed the wire just ahead of today’s rival Starquist (#1) in that spot, but I prefer the Kimmel trainee from that race. There is plenty of speed signed on in this 9-horse field, so D’ont Lose Cruz figures to have some company up front. Starquist may get a better setup than last time, when he just ran out of ground trying to close down the dueling leaders. I still think this son of Nyquist will ultimately want more ground, but he has been improving with each start. These two should take the most money, but I’m most intrigued by the likely third choice in the wagering. What’s Up Bro (#7) ran like a horse who needed a race on debut, as he was a little slow into stride and raced greenly while taking plenty of kickback. He was much more professional in his second start, displaying improved early speed before pulling clear impressively. He earned a solid 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and horses have come back out of that affair to run well. The second-place finisher Quick Chaos won his next start, improving by 10 points, and the third-place finisher returned to improve his figure by 9 points. What’s Up Bro failed to change leads in the stretch of that last victory, so I think he still has room to improve as he steps up against winners.

WIN: #7 What's Up Bro, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9: TACO BEAN (#6)

It’s obviously hard to trust The Cobbler (#1), especially if he goes off favored in this $16k claimer. He’s taking a huge drop in class after making just two starts here last winter. He ran pretty well in his debut despite not taking much money, but he did benefit from a slow early pace that day. Bet down to favoritism in his second start, he failed to back up that debut performance. He was mildly hindered by a runner who was injured in the stretch, but he was already well beaten at that point in the race. He’s been off for a long time, and this immediate drop to the bottom level is not a good sign. He’s clearly capable of winning this on his best day, but he’s not the kind of runner I want to take at a short price. I also have some questions about others who could take money in here. John’s Protege (#3) gets some class relief after trying a tougher spot first off the claim. Yet Mike Miceli has been struggling lately and this horse may be heading in the wrong direction since exiting the Wesley Ward barn. Jokemeister (#4) is another to consider as he ships in from Parx. He did won on this circuit last year, but did so against a woefully weak bunch. He could play out as the main speed, but he doesn’t have the most aggressive rider on this back. I wanted to look for a bigger price, and landed on Taco Bean (#6). He’s another who appears to be off form, but he’s been in over his head in all of his starts since getting claimed by Jesus Romero. This barn actually has had some success when the horses are placed realistically, and I think he’s getting an appropriate class drop here. He really didn’t run as badly as it might seem last time, showing improved speed before fading. His effort back on Nov. 13, when he was second against a tougher field at 32-1, would make him competitive here. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s getting some weight off as he picks up 10-pound apprentice Maddie Olver.

WIN: #6 Taco Bean, at 5-1 or greater