PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 2 - 1A
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 11 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 1: ALPHADORA (#5)
Doll has been sent off at odds of even-money or less in three consecutive starts and she’s lost each time. Of greater concern is the fact that she has led the field into upper stretch on all of those occasions before allowing rivals to pass her in the final furlong. Clearly she’s lacking some will to win these races, but she nevertheless continues to earn speed figures that are superior to most of her rivals. I suppose it stands to reason that she’s eventually going to meet a field than can’t beat her, but is today that day? I find her hard to swallow at another short price. There are a few alternatives from which to choose and the one that I prefer is Alphadora. This filly’s 2019 campaign ended on a sour note, but she showed real ability in her first several starts. She was hindered by a significant rail bias when she made her debut in February, and immediately stepped forward with two strong performances thereafter. She really should have won on March 15, but a poorly judged ride cost her the victory. She was in over her head against the classy Newly Minted in a stakes thereafter before getting sent to the sidelines. This barn tends to fly under the radar, but they have sent out live runners on this circuit before and the bullet workout in late December is encouraging. She also gets a significant rider switch to Junior Alvarado in this return to the races. The other alternative to consider is Enough Love, who made her debut for Linda Rice two summers ago at Saratoga. She ran a typical first race for a barn that rarely has them ready for their debuts, but now she’s resurfacing 16 months later with Robert Falcone. One would assume she can do better now, but the time away is obviously a concern.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,6

RACE 2: WICKED HAPY (#3)
La Negrita is probably the horse to beat, but I’m not thrilled with the prospect of taking a shot price on a filly who has lost two straight races by scant margins at short prices. She was her own worst enemy two back when she seemingly had the race won but drifted out badly in the final furlong, costing herself the victory. Then last time her rider was perhaps overconfident as he placed her in behind horses early and forced her to rally in the stretch, something she hadn’t done before. Yet she got there at the end and once again couldn’t reel in a mediocre rival while finishing out in the center of the racetrack. One of the logical alternatives to her is second time starter My Sweet Kat. This filly goes out for Linda Rice, who specializes in improving second time starters. Yet this daughter of Strong Mandate is going to have to get quite a bit faster, since she didn’t show much ability at all in her initial run, finishing a well-beaten third in a very weak race for the level. I’ll use her, but I worry that she could get overbet in this spot. My top pick is Wicked Happy, who figures to go off at a more generous price. She’s taking a significant and needed class drop after facing considerably tougher rivals in both of her prior starts. She ran into eventual Grade 2 Demoiselle winner Lake Avenue in her debut and then last time found herself in an unusually tough maiden special weight event behind the promising Harvey’s Lil Goil. While she lost by a large margin last time, she was actually in contention until the quarter pole before getting eased late, so I think this slight turnback should work for her. Furthermore, apprentice rider Luis Cardenas appears to have a pretty light touch on the horses he rides and that style may suit this filly.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,8

RACE 7: ANOTHER BROAD (#2)
Bellera has run well in every race that she’s completed, only finishing out of the exacta when she lost her rider at the start of the Turnback the Alarm two back. She bounced right back from that disappointment to take down the Grade 3 Comely last time over the promising filly Arrifana while earning a respectable 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She’s proven that she relishes this demanding nine-furlong distance and she has the tactical speed to work out another good trip. I’m using her prominently, but I fear that she may be overbet based on raw results when others have run just as fast. For instance, her uncoupled stablemate Another Broad achieved a superior 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure when she finished a strong second in that Turnback the Alarm two back, and that number seems legitimate given that the classy Golden Award won the race. Another Broad disappointed in the Go For Wand last time, but she never had a fair chance that day given the shorter distance and slow pace. She figures to rebound here at a better price. Furthermore, the prospect of a wet track should only help her chances, since she showed a real affinity for wet surfaces early in her career. At a slightly bigger price, I would also want to include the wild card Entropia. She made her U.S. debut in the Long Island last time despite the fact that she hadn't been particularly competitive in her lone prior turf start in Argentina. She is a Group 1 winner in that country, but she accomplished that success going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, so perhaps this surface switch will work out for her. Yet the jury is still out regarding her overall talent.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,7 with ALL