by David Aragona
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Race 1: 8 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 9 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 4: 7 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 7 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 9 - 1 - 8 - 3
RACE 2: PEACHES AND SPICE (#3)
Pretty Enuff deserves to be the favorite in this spot as she drops back in against New York-bred company for the first time since last summer. Since getting claimed by Claudio Gonzalez at Delaware in August, she’s put together a very solid record, hitting the exacta in five of six starts for the new barn. While she has run competitively against some tougher fields during that time, I don’t think she was facing any stars in her two most recent starts at today’s distance. She was supposed to win two back when she was passed late after leading into the final sixteenth, and then she could not catch a longshot leader in her most recent start. A wet track doesn’t really move her up at all, and I get the sense that she may be overbet off form that merely makes her one of the contenders in this spot. I would consider horses like Archumybaby, who may play out as the controlling speed, and Beyond Discreet, who should appreciate the slight cutback in distance. However, there is another contender in this field who figures to get overlooked in the wagering. Peaches and Spices has competed at a variety of class levels in her recent starts, trying open company as well as statebreds. She’s now dropping back into a realistic spot after being badly overmatched in a few recent races. She can be somewhat unpredictable, but she is clearly capable of running fast enough to beat a field like this when she shows up. I like the rider switch to Eric Cancel, who seems to have the best rapport with her, and she has handled a wet track in the past.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL
RACE 3: IRISH BANKER (#9)
There figures to be a mad scramble for the early lead in this spot, as three of the runners with experience possess significant early speed. According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, D’s Sis is the fastest of that bunch, and I do believe she is the horse to beat. Mike Luzzi figures to ride her aggressively from the bell, and she will be tough to run down if she runs back to either of her starts at Belmont. Her last race is of some concern, especially considering that it came over a wet track, but she lost all chance when she couldn’t find her best stride out of the gate. She should be closely pursued by both Big Brown Cat and Bel Cuore in the early going, but they’re not quite as talented as D’s Sis if that one shows up. Some may consider the first-time starters, but Todd Pletcher has very poor numbers in this situation, and the Jason Servis filly has more of a turf pedigree. I want to look outside the box, so I’m taking a shot with Irish Banker. I realize that many handicappers will find it difficult to bet these relatively unknown connections, but there is no denying that this filly has a real chance based on speed figures. I can excuse her return from the layoff two back, as she took a big step forward when dropped in for a tag last time. While she lost by nine lengths, it is worth stressing that a repeat of that performance puts her in the mix against this bunch. Irish Banker finished only two or three lengths behind several fillies who would be major contenders in this race. I love the rider switch to Dylan Davis, and I think she may appreciate the turnback in distance, especially if they go too fast up front.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,7,8
RACE 5: LONDON HOUSE (#7)
There are a couple of eye-catching second-time starters in this field. One who figures to attract significant attention is Papa Jim, yet I’m somewhat against this horse. His debut received a fairly generous Beyer Speed Figure, but I’m inclined to think that the 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure is better aligned with the quality of those horses. That number doesn’t make him particularly formidable against this field, and his trainer has a poor record with second-time starters in maiden races. The Big Lebanese is the horse to beat. He faced a legitimate maiden field in his debut, and I thought he ran quite well to be second after chasing wide the entire way. The slight stretch-out to seven furlongs should not be an issue, and he’s already proven that he handles a wet track. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is London House. The Steve Asmussen barn, under the care of assistant Toby Sheets, has compiled a fantastic record at the Aqueduct winter meet, with 16 of its last 27 runners finishing in the exacta. London House’s recent return to the races was solid, but the speed figure came up considerably slower than those of a few others in this field. However, there is some evidence that the field may have been stronger than it originally seemed. Winner Show Prince returned to be a solid fourth in a stakes race next time out while improving his TimformUS Speed Figure by 15 points, and third-place finisher Hushion returned to win while also improving his figure. The stretch-out to seven furlongs is a question mark, but I think he will appreciate drawing outside the other speeds after having to chase inside over a sloppy surface last time.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6,9
Trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with 1,2,3,9
RACE 7: FOREVER LIESL (#7)
Sara Street is clearly the horse to beat, but I still have some doubts about how far she really wants to go. She ran very well going today’s 1 1/8 miles distance over this very surface last April in the Gazelle, but that race remains an outlier in the careers of a few horses. She faded in the slop in her only other start around two turns, and her pedigree does not exactly inspire confidence that more distance really suits her. Her return effort last time was solid enough, as she did well to hold off a well-meant Danny Gargan runner. Yet the 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that effort doesn’t exactly give her any kind of edge over this field. She will have to improve in her second start off the layoff and may have to do so over another sloppy track. One significant factor that will benefit her is the overall lack of speed in this field. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead and she figures to either go directly to the front or share the lead with a horse like Total Control. I’m definitely using her, but I get the sense that she may be an underlay. A few mares in this field exit the Thirty Eight Go Stakes at Laurel, which was run around one turn. Total Control finished ahead of Forever Liesl that day, but I strongly prefer the latter runner in today’s race. Whereas total Control had a good stalking trip, Forever Liesl had to rally from behind and was completely cut off when attempting to slice through traffic in deep stretch. This Michelle Nevin trainee is one of the few horses in this field who has proven that she is at her best around two turns. In three starts between August and November of 2018, she ran a trio of 113 TimeformUS Speed Figures, two of which were accomplished at today’s 9-furlong distance. If she merely repeats her runner-up performance in the Turnback the Alarm, I believe she’ll be a handful for favored Sara Street.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 7 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,4,5