by David Aragona
Sunday’s card features a pair of stakes at nine furlongs. The Alex M. Robb, which goes as the 3rd race, is centered around Control Group, a likely heavy favorite for Rudy Rodriguez, while Linda Rice holds the strongest hand in the Ladies Handicap later on the card in race 8.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 3 - 8 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 9 - 5
Race 7: 10 - 9 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 5 - 9 - 3 - 4
RACE 2: LUNA RISING (#2)
The horse to beat is R Lucky Charm, who takes a serious plunge down the class ladder after running in a series of starter-allowance races for Jason Servis. She ran extremely well in her lone dirt start for this barn, earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure over a good track July 7. R Lucky Charm is dangerous, but there are definite red flags here. She hasn’t started in nearly four months and the connections are basically giving her away. I’ll use her, but you need to consider others. Rudy Rodriguez has two in the race. Spinyatta makes her first start for his barn and switches coasts after winning her last two dirt starts in Southern California. I think she’s moving up in class slightly, but Rudy’s horses have been running well. I could also use Town Tart who, like R Lucky Charm, drops in class off a poor performance. However, Rudy Rodriguez has poor numbers with these allowance to claiming moves in cheap races. I’m trying to beat the shorter prices with Luna Rising. I know that her recent form makes her look too slow, but she’s getting a very positive trainer switch to Michelle Nevin. Over the past five years, Nevin is 16 for 68 (24 percent, $3.52 ROI) off trainer switches in dirt sprints. Furthermore, Luna Rising had run faster dirt races as recently as last winter, when she was in Kiaran McLaughlin’s stable. Her most recent Finger Lakes start, in which she finished well after encountering traffic on the turn, could be a sign that she’s heading in the right direction.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 3: CAN YOU DIGGIT (#2)
If Control Group repeats the performance that he put forth in the Discovery, he is almost a certainty to win this race. However, he had never before hinted at possessing the kind of ability that was on display in that victory. It is worth noting that the Discovery was run during a two-week period when Rudy Rodriguez was winning everything in sight, and getting a few of his horses to produce career-best efforts, and in recent weeks he has once again picked up similar momentum. I think Control Group is very dangerous, but he’s going to get early pressure from Wake Up in Malibu as long as that foe breaks cleanly. At a very short price, this seems like the right time to take a shot against him. I picked Can You Diggit in the Discovery, and he disappointed that day. Yet I think he’s deserving of one more chance here. I may have underestimated how difficult it would be for Can You Diggit to return on such short rest, just 10 days after his prior start. He’s now had five weeks to recover from those performances, so I’m hopeful that he can get back to the form that he displayed in the Empire Classic. On that occasion, he ran a better race than Control Group when closing into a moderate pace. The nine furlongs suits him, and he’s one of the few horses in this race that still has some upside.
Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,5
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2 with ALL
RACE 7: CATS HALO (#10)
Sandy Belle is the horse to beat, having won each of her last three starts on dirt, while recording some of the fastest speed figures in the race. However, there are two major knocks against her. The first is that all three of her wins have come over wet tracks. In fact, she’s actually never started over a dry dirt surface. In all likelihood, she’ll handle it without a problem, but the pace of this race could be another issue for her. While she’s very fast, there is other speed in this race. Horses such as Satin Sheets, Ribbonite, and Classic Stones should be applying pressure early, which could make her vulnerable to some closers. The obvious late runner to use is Strawberry Tequila. She proved in her last start that she has simply improved, as she ran a much faster dirt race than she ever had before. She has more tactical speed than a plodder like Eighth Commandment, who also figures to take money. I’ll use her, but my top pick is Cats Halo. I know that she’s had more chances than some of the others, but I believe she’s coming into this race is good form. She’s run well in 3 of her last 5 starts, while earning very competitive speed figures. She was compromised by slow paces in her two losses to Frostie Anne on Nov. 6 and Dec. 14. Furthermore, I think she’s meeting an easier field than the ones she met in those $25,000 claiming races. This time, she’s going to get a quick pace to close into and may get lost in the shuffle as her more lightly raced rivals attract more support.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,5,8,9
RACE 8: SHERINI (#5)
With Crimson Frost unlikely to be allowed to ship from Belmont, Linda Rice’s other runner, Just Got Out, becomes the clear favorite. She ran very well last time, drawing well clear of Boule, who returned to finish a good second in the Interborough two starts later. There is not much early speed in this field, and Just Got Out figures to control the pace from the outset. The one horse that I think has a decent chance to pull off a minor upset is Sherini. She’s better equipped to handle this distance than anyone else in this field, having broken her maiden going this far at Saratoga two years ago. Her return from the layoff last time at Laurel was decent, and the runner-up returned to validate the speed figure. Her tactical speed should allow her to work out a favorable trip stalking Just Got Out, and I think she’s capable of taking a step forward going this demanding nine furlongs.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,7