PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 7:   6 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 3 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 5: KOKUTAI (#1)
Bistrita is probably the horse to beat off her solid runner-up finish on debut. That was not the strongest field for the level but it was the faster of two divisions of that maiden condition on the day. If she improves at all on that initial effort she’s going to be a handful against this field. Though it is somewhat of a concern that she was so dead on the board first time out. For what it’s worth, Jeremiah Englehart is 16 for 81 (20%, $2.28 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years. Glittering Prize also makes some sense primarily due to the fact that she possesses early speed. She made the front two back at Belmont but got outrun every step of the way last time after a poor start. She’s getting needed class relief and may be naturally faster than Bistritta, and that could make her dangerous if the rail bias that we saw on Saturday is still in effect. I want to go in a different direction with Kokutai, who comes out of the same race as Bistritta. This filly was off slowly and checked coming out of the starting gate, which put her at the back of the pack early. From there, she did not get the strongest ride from Jose Ortiz, who had trouble riding her as she strode greenly towards the back of the pack. I think there’s more ability here than she showed in her first start and she may get somewhat ignored as she makes her first start off the claim for Greg DiPrima.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,6

RACE 8: GAMESTONKS (#4)
Magic Circle is the horse to beat in this Busanda, and she’ll be awfully tough to handle if we’re still dealing with the rail-biased surface that we saw on Saturday. She is the primary speed from the inside, though I suppose Waters of Merom could get an aggressive ride from the two-path. Magic Circle is simply a superior horse, as she comes off a solid third-place effort in the Demoiselle. While I’m not convinced that 1 1/8 miles is her best distance, she did run well enough last time. It’s just mildly concerning that she got so visibly tired in the late stages of that last race, as she was drifting erratically in the final furlong. I’m not way against her, but I also don’t want to take a short price since this may be a field of comparable quality to the Demoiselle. Rosebug looks like a viable alternative based on her last race, in which she dominated a field of maidens, winning under wraps at the end. She’s clearly more of a dirt horse, as she ran quite well on debut against a tough field at Saratoga before graduating in her return to that surface last time. While her dam could handle this kind of trip, she’s produced foals that don’t necessarily want to run this far. I believe she has some quality, but I didn’t want to take a short price on her either. My top pick is Gamestonks. This filly wanted no part of sprinting in her debut, but she’s relished the stretch-out in distance in her last couple of starts. It took her a long time to hit top gear two back, but she was finishing best of all across the wire. Expectations were low considering that she raced for a $20k tag that day, but it seemed like the light bulb went on in that start. This filly was much more professional last time, getting herself into the race earlier before taking over with authority in the stretch. She drew clear to an impressive win, finishing like added ground will be no problem. We know very little about Blofeld as a sire, but the dam’s family is all stamina influences. Brittany Russell sends live runners to New York, and it doesn’t hurt to have Trevor McCarthy in the irons given his recent hot streak.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 3,5,6

RACE 9: HALF DAY PAM (#6)
Mazal Eighteen is the horse to beat off her last few efforts since getting back on the dirt recently. She never had a chance last time when chasing outside on December 31 over a rail-biased track. She actually ran pretty well to be second all things considered and she’s compiled a set of speed figures that make her a deserving short price. That said, she’s drawn outside and that could be a difficult post position if the track is still as rail-biased as it was yesterday. I think Violentiam is just as interesting out of that Dec. 31 affair, because she was even wider than Mazal Eighteen on the far turn and still finished up decently. She has as much tactical speed as that foe and could get an aggressive ride from Jackie Davis. Horses like Write This Down and Red Pepper Grill also make some sense, but I’m concerned about their potential trips if there’s still a track bias. My top pick is Half Day Pam. This filly didn’t earn a particularly fast speed figure when she broke her maiden last time out on Feb. 19. However, I thought she was pretty gutsy in victory that day and she should be capable of running faster now that she’s nearly a year older. Tom Morley does not have great statistics off layoffs, but I like that she posted a very fast workout over the Belmont training track a couple of weeks ago. Trevor McCarthy understands how you have to ride over this track, so I expect him to make use of this filly’s early speed.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5,9