by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 4 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 1 - 3
RACE 2: AMERICAN LINCOLN (#4)
Starship Zeus has to be considered the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. He put forth a respectable effort over a sloppy track in December behind dominant winner Playwright, who absolutely loved the going that day. I thought that Starship Zeus may have finished a bit closer had Dylan Davis gotten him to the outside approaching the top of the stretch, as you never want to have your momentum broken over a wet track. Nevertheless, he showed that he can still run, and he has compiled a plethora of speed figures that would make him a winner of this race. Yet the problem is that he rarely does actually win, his career record standing at 2 for 40. I’m using him, but I generally want to take shots against horses like this at short prices. Fillet of Sole makes plenty of sense as he moves up in class for Jason Servis. This isn’t necessarily a strong move for the barn, but I still think you have to respect the confidence that they’re showing. That said, I’m not a big fan of this horse. He’s had his chances in much easier spots recently and just doesn’t seem to possess that winning desire. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer others. My top pick is American Lincoln. He’s been uncompetitive in his last two starts, but now he’s getting some significant class relief. He actually didn’t even run that badly in his return from the layoff last time, earning a speed figure that makes him one of the top contenders. He should appreciate getting back on a fast track, and Linda Rice has excellent numbers with this move. Over the past five years, she is 9 for 19 (47 percent, $2.87 ROI) second off a layoff on dirt with horses going from allowance to claiming company.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2 with ALL
RACE 3: LUCID DREAM (#5)
Despite competing for low-profile connections, Loverboy Lou is a deserving heavy favorite in this spot. He’s dropping in for a tag for the first time after putting forth a couple of strong efforts at the maiden special weight level. The only problem is that those two promising performances are separated by a pair of disappointing results. While he is facing what is easily the softest field of his career, it’s difficult to completely trust him. Linda Rice’s second-time starter, Mandatory Payout, is somewhat interesting, but the trainer switch somewhat mitigates her positive numbers with this move. Majid may improve for Rudy Rodriguez on the class drop, but he’s been in some very good barns prior to this. The horse I want to bet is Lucid Dream. Dismissed at 39-1 in his debut on Travers Day at Saratoga, I thought he put forth a respectable effort to be fifth. The winner, Classy John, has gone on to run very well against stakes company. Lucid Dream was slow into stride early, but he was rolling up the rail in deep stretch and actually galloped out on even terms with the winner soon after the wire. His speed figure dropped off significantly in his subsequent start at Belmont, but I don’t want to put too much stock in that performance. There was a significant rail bias on Sept. 29, and Lucid Dream was always wide and never able to get into contention before fading late. He is perhaps taking the biggest class drop of anyone in this field as he returns from the layoff as a new gelding.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7
RACE 5: SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN (#3)
It’s difficult to predict where the public is going to land in this confusing race. Analyze the Odds should certainly be considered as he turns back in distance for Jason Servis. He was facing a marginally tougher field of open-company foes at Parx last time, and he disappointed as the slight favorite, never getting involved after dropping back from his outside post position. Servis now puts him back in for a tag, and I believe this shorter distance will benefit him. He’s clearly quite versatile, but I’ve always thought that he’s best around one turn. I’m using him prominently, but he’s not the most trustworthy option. There are a few key contenders to consider out of the eighth race on Jan. 6. Tribecca was favored that day, but he was unable to make the early lead when Speightful Kitten was sent from the rail. Despite the fact that there didn’t appear to be much speed signed on, they ended up setting some legitimate fractions. All of the TimeformUS Pace Figures for this race are color-coded red, indicating an extremely fast pace, and that characterization is reflected in the speed figure. Speightful Kitten held on quite well in the stretch after contesting that pace, earning a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I believe a repeat of that performance makes him the most likely winner of this race, and he should appreciate the slight cutback to six furlongs. Tribecca stayed on well to be third that day, but he seems to have lost some of the early speed that he once possessed. Speightful Kitten is just in awesome form right now for Linda Rice, and I like that he’s versatile enough to come from off the pace in a race that appears to feature more confirmed front-runners than last time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,8
Trifecta: 3 with 1,8 with 1,5,6,7,8
RACE 9: DELTA GAMMA (#5)
Princess Pinky deserves to the slight favorite off the strength of her two efforts at route distances. She finished a strong second to subsequent stakes winner Espresso Shot in September at Belmont despite racing against the grain of the track. She didn’t quite perform up to that level last time when losing to Lem Me Have It, but she nevertheless earned a respectable speed figure after a wide trip. If she comes back with the same kind of performance here, I believe she’ll be difficult for this field to beat. However, it seems that her form has plateaued at this point, and I think there are some other fillies in this race that may have more room for improvement. I prefer her main rival Delta Gamma. While she didn’t earn a particularly fast speed figure in her debut, several horses have returned out of that race to improve in subsequent starts. Delta Gamma was clearly one of those as she handled the stretch-out to a mile last time. Some may view it as a disappointment that she couldn’t hang on for the victory, especially given how adept Linda Rice is at getting her second time starters to win. However, I thought this filly ran very well within the context of that race. She was ridden to go after the two leaders on the far turn, opening up a sizeable gap on the rest of the field. She put away those two rivals in upper stretch, as they both plummeted to the back of the pack. Delta Gamma looked like a winner at the eight pole, but she understandably got leg-weary after those earlier exertions and was surpassed in the closing strides. Given the way she lost focus in the last furlong, it’s not surprising that Linda Rice adds blinkers for this race. Over the past 5 years, Linda is 15 for 35 (43 percent, $3.24 ROI) when adding blinkers to maidens on the dirt. I think this filly has more ability than we’ve yet seen. Beyond these two, I would also use long shot Sweet Blindness, who comes out of the same debut race as Delta Gamma. She got rolling late after losing contact with the field early and could improve with added distance.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,9
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1