by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 5 - 11
Race 6: 3 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 3 - 4
RACE 5: TOO FAST TO PASS (#7) / CONQUEST TWISTER (#2)
This is one of the most difficult races on the card, as you have horses converging from various class levels to make up this field of 12 runners. While I generally like to look for value in these situations, I have trouble getting past likely favorite Too Fast to Pass, who is simply the horse to beat off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. His horses have been running extremely well in recent weeks, and he has been especially dangerous off the claim at this Aqueduct meet. Since racing switched to Aqueduct last fall, Rudy is 9 for 17 (53 percent, $2.98 ROI) first off the claim on the dirt at NYRA. For such a large field, there is not that much early speed in this spot, and I have to expect that Trevor McCarthy will look to send Too Fast to Pass out to the front and secure position inside of Bluegrass Singer. If this horse improves at all off his recent efforts, he will be very tough to beat. He’s my top pick, but I want to use him with a runner that figures to offer a bit more value. Conquest Twister takes a significant drop in class after facing a much stronger field at the $32,000 level just 7 days ago. Over the past five years, Jeremiah Englehart is 44 for 90 (49 percent, $2.46 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more on the dirt, and he’s 5 for 16 making that move with a $3.97 ROI at NYRA tracks. Conquest Twister may not have appreciated racing right down on the rail last time, which probably was not the place to be on Jan. 21. He’s been effective coming from just off the pace in the past, and I think we’ll see a better effort out of him here.
Win: 2,7
Exacta: 2,7 with 2,5,6,7,11
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 5,6,11
RACE 6: EVER YOUNG (#3)
Given limited options among those with experience, first-time starters are likely to attract some attention here. The morning line favorite is No Hitter for Todd Pletcher. While this barn does well with debuting runners in general, they are just 2 for 23 ($0.74 ROI) with firsters in maiden claiming dirt sprints at NYRA over the past five years. On the other hand, Rudy Rodriguez has much better statistics under those same parameters (10 for 41, $2.11 ROI), so I want to respect his entrant, Kelvin. At a bigger price, I would even throw in Sharp Bid. This barn isn’t really known for having firsters ready, but the dam of this horse, Read the Research, was a fairly talented New York-bred who earned more than $225,000 in her career. These horses will be on my tickets, but my top pick is one of those with experience – albeit experience from many months ago. Ever Young made his debut back in August at Saratoga, and ran like a horse that probably needed a race. He was off a bit slowly, and then ducked in as the field entered the stretch, putting himself in a tight position down inside in the late stages. It’s somewhat of a concern that he’s been off for so long since that race, but Linda Rice actually does quite well in this situation. Over a five year period, she is 6 for 17 (35 percent, $4.31 ROI) with second-time starting maidens on dirt coming off layoffs of 100 days or more.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6,7,9
RACE 9: NIKO STRNG (#6)
Just Bustin will take some money off his turf speed figures, but I don’t see a ton of evidence that he’s supposed to transfer that form to dirt. Bustin Stones is a good dirt sire, but the female side of his pedigree is more geared towards turf and synthetic. I much prefer Niko Strong, who makes his second start for Jeremiah Englehart. This horse’s debut was not a bad effort, as he rushed up to chase the fleet It’s Hot Out in the early stages while racing off the rail on a day when you wanted to be down inside. He got tired in the stretch, but that race was falling apart late. Now he cuts back to six furlongs, and gets a rider switch to the typically aggressive Kendrick Carmouche. He’s the horse to beat and I think he’d be a fair price at anything around his morning line odds of 5-2.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7