by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 7 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 6: 2 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 9 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 7 - 9 - 3
RACE 1: THEATRICAL DANCER (#4)
Amity Island figures to go favored here after finishing second at the $40,000 level in December. While she’s technically dropping in claiming price, it’s not like she’s catching an easier field than the weak group she met last time. She can obviously win here, but her last-out 58 TimeformUS Speed Figure hardly gives her any kind of advantage over this field, and she figures to be a significantly underlay. I’m more interested in horses who are actually dropping in class, coming out of maiden special weight races. The most logical of those is probably Maria’s Gift, who hasn’t done much running in her two starts to date, but has nevertheless earned better TimeformUS Speed Figures than the favorite in both of those runs. Her pedigree isn’t terribly convincing for the stretch-out, but her early speed could make her dangerous. I prefer Theatrical Dancer at what figures to be a better price. This filly is probably better suited to turf, but her lone dirt performance isn’t as bad as it seems. While she lost by 21 lengths, she was facing a decent field of off-the-turf runners and actually made an eye-catching middle move into contention on the far turn before flattening out. She’s getting significant class relief and figures to be a generous price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6
RACE 3: MANDATORY (#3)
One of many expensive auction purchases in this field, there’s no denything that Johnnypump has been a disappointment. After going for $1.1 million as a yearling, he was subsequently sold to his current connections for just $75k prior to his last start. He’s raced on turf recently, but his two dirt efforts over the summer at Monmouth suggest that he may actually prefer the main track. He rode the rail for much of the way on July 26 when that probably wasn’t the place to be, and rebounded with a better effort on Sep. 12 behind West Will Power, who won next time out with a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m most intrigued by his main rival Mandatory. This $400k auction purchase debuted as a two-year-old with high expectations, closing willingly to be third in his 6-furlong debut after a wide trip. That performance gave every indication that he should stretch out in distance, especially as a half-brother to multiple Grade 1-winning dirt router I'm a Chatterbox. However, he failed to step forward routing, fading after stalking a moderate pace behind subsequent Discovery winner Forza Di Oro. Mandatory hasn't been seen for over 14 months, but he returns with a solid series of workouts. John Kimmel isn’t known for his prowess off layoffs, but this colt nevertheless retains real upside. He’s my top, and I’ll primarily use him with the favorite, and the second-time starting filly Aunt Kat, who has a right to take a step forward after getting a conservative ride in her debut.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 4,6 with 1,4,6,7,8
RACE 6: DARK STORM (#2)
Family Biz is clearly the horse to beat, but it is fair to wonder if he’s lost a step since the fall. A repeat of that 6-length victory at this level back in September when he earned a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure would absolutely crush today’s field. And he didn't run that badly in his first start off the claim for Duggan two back when closing for fourth behind the highly promising The Sound. While his last race is more troublesome, that was a very tough field it’s possible that he didn’t appreciate the 13-day turnaround. Now he drops to a realistic level and is reunited with regular rider Carmouche. Perhaps the biggest obstacle for him is that he may not get an ideal pace scenario, but that won't matter if he shows up. Given the fact that the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, I prefer the projected early leader. Dark Storm only managed one start in 2020 when he was placed over his head facing N2X allowance company. He showed brief speed that day before fading behind stakes-level runners Money Moves and Three Technique. That form isn’t too encouraging, but he had run pretty well against solid foes when he was a three-year-old in 2019. Obviously it's a little hard to trust that he can get back to those efforts, but he does project to get a pretty favorable trip. He gets some significant class relief and must be respected despite the question marks. Underneath I’d also want to use American Lincoln to inject some value into the exotics. This horse can be forwardly placed early and he’s run multiple speed figures that put him in the mix despite not winning in a while.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 3,5,6,7
RACE 7: OPT (#3)
Jerry the Nipper figures to go favored here as he starts as part of an entry with Microsecond. The latter runner prefers turf and is clearly the weaker half of this pairing, but he could nevertheless drag down the price on his stablemate. Jerry the Nipper ran well to win his N1X condition last time, but he also got a good trip, stalking the pace before taking over in upper stretch in a spot where his main rival Cold Hard Cash failed to handle kickback and didn’t show up. He may win right back, but he’s now facing a few rivals who have already run similarly fast speed figures in a race that should feature an honest pace. I won’t be shocked if he overcomes those hurdles, but I’m not willing to take a short price on him. Bourbon Bay has a similar profile to Jerry the Nipper, having just won his N1X condition with a solid speed figure. However, he’s missed some time since that September victory and didn’t draw an ideal post position on the rail. I’m more interested in horses who have already competed at this level, and I want two of the runners exiting that Dec. 6 race won by Chestertown. Opt finished second that day and he’s my top pick. This gelding focused on turf racing for the majority of his career, but he transferred that solid grass form to dirt without issue last time. It shouldn’t be a major surprise since plenty of his siblings handled the main track in addition to having turf success. Given the prospect of a lively early tempo, I expect him to run well again. And I’d also use Six Percent, who finished right behind him last time. This horse has been in great form lately, and arguably ran just as well as Bourbon Bay when they met back in September.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,9
Trifecta: 3 with 1,9 with 1,2,4,6,9
RACE 9: VIVE LA LIBERTY (#2)
Investment Grade figures to go favored in this finale, but she’s not exactly the kind of horse that’s easy to trust at a short price. She’s taking a significant drop in class while going out for a new barn, and is also trying dirt for the first time. She showed some speed racing at Del Mar for Peter Eurton last year, contesting the pace in her debut, before steadying out of position in the first quarter mile of her last race. She should be quick enough to get in front of these early, but she has to show she can handle this surface. For what it’s worth, the dam won on dirt, so it’s not as if this pedigree is all turf. George Weaver is also 1 for 5 ($1.30 ROI) off a trainer switch with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns. I’ll use this horse defensively, but there are other options at better prices. I could see making a case for other turf to dirt switches, such as Willow Grove or Stella Mars. The former is perhaps the most interesting of those switching surfaces given that she has a more dirt-oriented pedigree. Yet I was leaning in a different direction. Vive La Liberty looks inferior to this field at first glance, but it’s worth taking a closer look at her effort two back. She got pushed off the course in the opening strides, as the rival to her outside veered in sharply, carrying her into the gap. She basically lost 15 or more lengths of position right out of the gate, and there’s an argument that she could have been right there with a fair trip given the run she made to pass half the field. They tried a ridiculous spot against stakes company last time which further dirties up her for. Yet she arguably has already won well enough to win a race like this based on the evidence two back, and I think she could get somewhat overlooked here.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,8,9