by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   7 - 1A - 2 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 8:   5 - 1 - 4 - 1A
Race 9:   4 - 1 - 2 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: NEPOTISM (#4)
Likely favorite Al’s Prince showed promise in that debut run in the slop, closing mildly along the rail after a slow start while racing greenly. He got another furlong to work with in his second start and responded well to the stretch-out. The grey colt was more professional in the early stages, but had to briefly wait for room in upper stretch before chasing the winner home. He gives the impression that 1 1/8 miles should be right up his alley, and he has worked well since that last run. He also adds blinkers, which could give him that extra bit of focus he needs to break his maiden. I’m using him, but I prefer another runner stretching out at what figures to be a better price. Nepotism had an eventful journey in his debut. He wasn’t so quick into stride out of the gate, so he had to be hustled in the opening furlong. Yet he then got took rank, and had to pause on the turn before getting spun out very wide into the lane. This horse stretched out to a mile in his second start and ran a much better race. He flashed improved gate speed, stalking a swift pace that totally fell apart, took over in upper stretch and responded gamely when challenged. The 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance puts him in the mix here. Now he stretches out and takes the blinkers off, which should help him to relax. I would lean towards these two rather than the horses who finished behind Al’s Prince last time. The Reds has just been a disappointment since showing promise in his debut, and Inspiration Point has to show more staying power than he did last time.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,3
 

RACE 3: LUNE LAKE (#7)
Flat Awesome Jenny is the horse to beat here despite throwing in a clunker last time as the even-money favorite. Yet there are definitely reasons to be concerned about this mare at what figures to be another short price. She briefly recaptured top form for Rob Atras in that victory two back, but she was unable to repeat that performance in the same kind of going last time. Now she’s going out for John Toscano, who has good numbers off the claim but could have trouble improving this mare off the prior trainer. Suz exits the same race as Flat Awesome Jenny and was even less successful than that rival, fading readily after failing to make the early lead. She now makes her first start off the claim for Karl Broberg, but her prior trainer had gotten some incredible performances out of her so it’s unclear if she can regain that form for a new barn. I want to go in a different direction with Lune Lake. This 6-year-old mare is not the easiest runner to trust, but at least she’s supposed to be a square price this time. She was simply in over her head facing NY-bred allowance company in her last two starts, and she got some curious trips in those races. She was basically eased halfway through the race two back, and last time she threw her head at the start and was always out of position before steadying at the quarter pole. It’s unclear if she can get back to her best form from Finger Lakes now that she’s competing on the NYRA circuit, but those races would probably beat this field.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5
 

RACE 5: PLEASURE LUCK (#6)
This is a fascinating optional claiming event for the New York-bred 3-year-old fillies. I’m not trying to beat the potential favorite Pleasure Luck, but I do want to use some prices underneath. Pleasure Luck showed some mild promise last summer at Belmont when closing for third in a slow race, but she looked like a completely different horse upon returning last month at Aqueduct. She had improved early speed and easily took over in upper stretch before drawing off to an impressive score. She wouldn’t need to improve much on that 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field and the 7 furlongs figures to be right up her alley. Mark Hennig doesn’t have great statistics with horses coming off maiden victories, but the barn has been having plenty of success this winter and they’ve found a good spot for this filly. She’s my top pick, as I strongly prefer her to the other favoites. Make Mischief is getting some class relief as she drops out of some tougher stakes events as a 2-year-old. The distance was a valid excuse last time in the Chandelier. While her prior form was a little inconsistent, her best races do make her a player here. Shanes Pretty Lady should also attract some support, but she seemed to improve with the added distance last time and I’m not convinced that less distance helps her. I’d rather use Out First from her last race, since she had the excuse of a poor start and her maiden victory was strong enough to put her on par with the favorites. At a much bigger price, I’d also want to throw in Caramocha. She ran poorly last time, but was hindered by racing wide against a rail bias on Dec. 20. Her debut victory prior to that was good enough to make her a player here, even as she won at 99-1, and she figures to get back to a more aggressive running style here.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,5
 

RACE 8: PICO D’ORO (#5)
The stronger half of this favored entry is Hello Hot Rod, who ships up from Laurel for this Jimmy Winkfield off two consecutive victories. He broke his maiden second time out going this 7-furlong distance, and improved upon that performance last time when taking down an N1X allowance event at a mile. He defeated a pair of next-out winners in that race, suggesting that it may have been a stronger field than even the speed figures indicate. As long as he continues progressing at this race, the half-brother to stakes winner Hello Beautiful should be tough for this field to handle. That said, there are others in this field who have run similar numbers and also have upside. Those include recent maiden winners Weyburn and Return the Ring. The former got his diploma in the slop last time but had previously run a faster race over dry going. Return the Ring was able to the control the tempo going 6 furlongs in his debut and could face more pace pressure this time. I’ll use both defensively, but I think the best alternative to the favorite is Kentucky shipper Pico d’Oro. This son of Curlin showed promise as a 2-year-old when winning a minor stakes at Ellis Park. It took him a couple of starts to get back on track after that, but he ran deceptively well to be fourth in a salty allowance race at Churchill Downs two back, making a wide move on he far turn before flattening out. He then followed that up with a win over synthetic last time. His trainer William Morey does a good job out of town, and this colt picks up Kendrick Carmouche for his first local start.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
 

RACE 9: EIGHT WEEKS LONG (#4)
This maiden claiming finale appears to be a wide open affair with no clear favorite. War of Thrones figures to attract some support as she comes back at the same condition after fading in her debut going this distance a few weeks ago. She ran a better race than Scotty, who just passed her in the late stages, but I’m not sure that I want anyone out of that spot. I’d rather gravitate towards class droppers, and there are a couple of interesting runners dropping out of maiden special weight races. One of those is Pollard’s Day, who starts as part of an entry. This colt didn’t show much in a pair of starts against open company at Churchill Downs, but he showed mild improvement in his first start against new York-breds last time. He caught an unusually tough maiden special weight field and actually ran pretty well within the context of that race to pass some tired runners after racing wide and greenly through the early stages. My top pick is Eight Weeks Long. This colt may look like more of a turf horse based on his career-best speed figure on that surface last time out. However, he may just be improving with maturity, as 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt was just too short for him first time out. He didn’t get the best ride or trip last time and at least showed that he could get the distance as he stayed on well at the end. While some might think his pedigree is strongly geared towards turf, Vancouver has had success as a dirt sire and his progeny are 3-for-11 in dirt routes.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6