by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 3 - 1
RACE 2: RAGNAR LOTHBROK (#3)
Chateau is the horse to beat after breaking his maiden in his 16th attempt at Parx last time out. Notably, that was his first start off the claim for Jason Servis and owner Michael Dubb, which is the primary reason why a horse with such a record was bet down to odds of 2-5. While he did earn a speed figure that makes him a solid contender in this race, I expect that he’s going to be a significant favorite once again, and it’s not as if he possesses a significant speed edge over this field. This horse also just doesn’t appear too keen on winning races. Even last time when he actually got the job done, he was ducking out in the lane and attempting to pull himself up in the final sixteenth. He’s on my tickets, but I would prefer to consider some others at better prices. The most logical alternative is Thefinalcrazydude. If this horse repeats his last race, he is very likely to beat the favorite. He did everything but get his picture taken last time after leading all the way through legitimate fractions. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs should only aid his cause. The only problem is that you were getting 31-1 if you liked him last time and he’s probably going to be the second choice in the wagering today. I’m instead going to try Ragnar Lothbrok at what figures to be a square price. He needs to run a bit faster, but I think this lightly-raced runner has the potential to do so. He showed plenty of speed in his first couple of career starts, so I thought it was somewhat curious that his connections were so intent on stretching him out in distance after he broke his maiden. He understandably faded going a mile against superior competition two back. Then last time, he actually ran fairly well but just couldn’t quite negotiate the 7 furlongs. I think this turnback should really suit him, and he possesses the tactical speed to work his way up into a favorable stalking position just in behind Thefinalcrazydude.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
RACE 3: RACING RAVEN (#4)
With the scratch of likely favorite Our Honor, Alrahaal becomes the horse to beat. However, I find this gelding difficult to trust. He got within a length of decent two-time winner Domain in his debut, but that performance may have been the product of a sloppy, sealed track that he appeared to handle very well. He was totally ineffective over dry going in his second start, albeit against a vastly superior rival. Perhaps the turnback will help him, but I’m not convinced. I’m taking a shot with Racing Raven. The negatives with this horse are fairly obvious. He’s a Repole-owned horse who was moved from the A team to the B team, switching out of Todd Pletcher’s barn for his return. New trainer Bruce Levine does not have particularly strong numbers off layoffs, and this one’s spotty work tab does not necessarily inspire confidence. That said, this runner’s first couple of dirt starts make him a player in here. For whatever reason, they tried to stretch him out after that, but he appears to be more of a sprinter. He, too, gets a makeover for this race, as he returns as a new gelding with the blinkers coming off.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6
RACE 5: TAZMONIAN DEVIL (#8)
Those with experience who figure to attract the most support are all exiting the second race on Dec. 14. Poker Game came through inside to get second after a trip that was less than ideal. There is some evidence that the rail was a good place to be on that card, but I still thought he ran reasonably well within the context of the race. However, now he’s going to be the favorite, and I don’t feel that he has a significant edge over some of his main rivals. Shock Therapy showed some potential in his debut but failed to step forward last time, and Awesome Adversary continues to progress now that this connections are focusing on dirt routes. I would use all of these horses in some capacity, but there’s another runner with form who may not get the attention that he deserves. Tazmonian Devil has lost his first couple of starts by a combined 52 1/2 lengths. However, those massive margins of defeat are primarily a product of the company he’s kept. This horse has been involved in two of the fastest maiden races run on the circuit in recent months, losing to stakes-bound Le General in his debut and eventual Damon Runyon winner Not That Brady last time. Despite the fact that he was never in contention in either of those starts, he’s actually earned some respectable speed figures. In fact, the 77 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his debut is tied for the highest number in this field. While some may feel that he regressed going a mile last time, he actually ran better than his finishing position would suggest, making a brief middle move before getting eased home. This horse is clearly bred to handle route distances, and these connections have been known to win at big prices.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 6: TAYLER’S THE BOSS (#2)
Sweet August Lady is probably going to be a prohibitive favorite, but I could never bet a runner like this. She is undoubtedly the class of this field, but she’s going to get bet primarily off superior turf form. Her only dirt start came in her debut over a muddy track, and she was a nonthreatening third. Of course, it’s possible that she has improved since then, but you’re not supposed to rely on such a possibility with a heavy favorite. Her main rival appears to be Solitary Gem, but I’m getting pretty tired of this filly. I realize that she’s run some speed figures that could win this race, but I think those performances were mostly a product of favorable circumstances. For instance, she got a fantastic trip riding a golden rail in that Oct. 19 runner-up effort, and she hasn’t been able to match it since. I’m taking a shot with Tayler’s the Boss. If you’ve been paying close attention at Aqueduct recently, you’re probably aware that Mertkan Kantarmaci’s horses have been running very well. I think they just got a bit too ambitious first off the claim last time, as she was never going to be competitive against the class-dropping winner, New Year’s Wish. Now she’s returning to a more appropriate level, and this barn has a history of improving runners in this situation. Over the past five years, Kantarmaci is 7 for 31 (23 percent, $3.56 ROI) second off the claim in dirt sprints. There is not much early speed in this field, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she will work out a favorable stalking trip.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,7
RACE 8: HOROSCOPE (#6)
Arthur’s Hope is clearly the horse to beat after suffering a heartbreaking nose defeat to a rejuvenated Syndergaard last time out. This horse’s prior form was not nearly as discouraging as it seems, since he lost all chance at the start two back and was in some unreasonably tough spots prior to that. The point is that his speed figure improvement last time out did not just come out of nowhere, and I would not be shocked to see him repeat such a performance. If he does, he will be awfully tough to beat. However, it is worth pointing out that the pace of that Dec. 15 was very favorable to the front-runners, and hindered horses like Speightful Kitten and Sicilia Mike. I still don’t think either of those runners are quite as talented as Arthur’s Hope, but they may be slightly better than their most recent efforts. Rudy Rodriguez has a pair of entrants in this race and they’re both quite intriguing. The one that is likely to attract more support is Tribecca. This horse ran an excellent race to be second two back, chasing home his stablemate Royal Asset in a fast off-the-turf race at this level. I can excuse his performance last time since he was running back on just 4 days’ rest. He showed the ability to stalk in that Nov. 14 race, but there’s no reason for him to do so this time. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will have the early lead to himself in a situation favoring the front-runner. I’m using him prominently, but I am somewhat concerned about him lasting the 7 furlongs. Distance should not be an issue for his stablemate, Horoscope, who is my top pick. This horse figures to be a square price in this spot, since he’s disappointed in a series of races since the summer. However, I think you can make excuses for many of those poor efforts. He got the wrong ride on Aug. 29 at Saratoga when unwisely rated, he caught a sloppy track two back, and then last time he got squeezed out of position soon after the start and ran better than it appears. I’m hoping that a more relaxed tempo up front will allow him to attain a more forward early position, since he needs to do so in order to run a top race.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,9
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,3,9