by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 9 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 2 - 6 - 4

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: STERLING BEAUTY (#6)
Linda Rice has a stranglehold on this race, as she sends out an uncoupled pair of runners who are likely to dominate the wagering. It will be interesting to see who ends up going off as the favorite between Color Chart and Delta Gamma. The latter filly is more accomplished, having finished second in three of her four career starts. It appeared that she was bound to quickly break out of the maiden ranks following her first two performances, which were both better than the speed figures indicate. However, she then fell apart in her third outing and failed again at today’s maiden claiming level most recently. While her speed figures are higher than the one number Color Chart has earned, I’m not totally convinced that Delta Gamma really wants to stretch back out to a mile. That said, I have similar concerns about her stablemate. While Color Chart is by versatile sire Big Brown, her damsire Too Much Bling was a pure sprinter and the female influences in this pedigree are ambiguous. While it appears that she was running on well at the end of her debut, I thought she was just passing tired rivals after riding a gold rail for much of her trip. The top two finishers in that race both have some quality, but I felt Color Chart ran significantly worse than that pair. Linda Rice is renowned for her work with second time starting maidens, but she hasn’t had as much success with the maiden special weight to maiden claiming move within that sample. I obviously respect both of these runners, but I want to take a shot against them with Sterling Beauty. In my opinion, this is the filly with the most upside. I’m just drawing a line through her debut since she clearly was not prepared for that race and she raced wide against a strong rail bias. Her next start was far more encouraging. While she finished 5 lengths behind Delta Gamma, I thought Sterling Beauty ran in spots and was hindered by her rider’s lack of aggression midway through the race. After racing keenly early, Sterling Beauty seemed to lose interest on the turn, and Eric Cancel just let her drop out of contention. Yet, when he actually asked her for run in the lane, she had more to give and was arguably finishing best of all at the wire. We’ve seen some progeny of Central Banker stretch out and this filly strikes me as one who should have no trouble with the mile distance. She’s going to be a distant third choice, but she doesn’t have to improve as much as some may think in order to upend both favorites.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5
 

RACE 2: SALTY SMILE (#6)
Sweet August Lady is likely to be heavily favored as she drops to this bottom-level claiming event after failing against allowance company last time. Chad Brown runners such as this routinely get overbet, and I’m somewhat concerned that the public may just concede this race to her. While she would be awfully difficult to beat if she were to repeat the speed figure that she earned two back, that was going 6 1/2 furlongs, and there’s no guarantee that she’s going to be as effective at a mile. I’m definitely using her, but I think there are viable alternatives. Rachel’s Blue Moon figures to be the controlling speed, but she’s difficult to trust after basically being eased in her last three starts. I’d also consider Princess Mikayah, who was forced to chase three wide against a golden rail last time and will appreciate getting back to one turn. I’m using them, but my top pick is Salty Smile. Her recent form has been lackluster, but I think her last two races are not nearly as poor as they seem. She blew the start two back and was forced to chase wide the entire way over a track that was favoring horses in inside paths. Then last time, I thought her rider was too conservative as he let her get shuffled back to nearly last at the top of the stretch after being forwardly placed early. All things considered, she ran on well to nearly get up for third. She’s been successful going this far in the past, and I get the sense that she may finally be rounding back into form.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 4,5,7
 

RACE 6: HIZAAM (#6)
I found this to be one of the most perplexing races on the card, since every betting interest is somewhat flawed. Of those with experience, Erlich is probably the one to beat. He should appreciate the slight turnback to a one-turn mile after failing to get the 9 furlongs in two of his last three starts. While I wasn’t thrilled with his performance going this trip two back, he may have been hindered by the fact that he was not able to make the front that day. However, that is a concern yet again with need-the-lead type Rucksack drawn to his outside. Without that older rival in the race, I would have made Erlich my top pick. Yet I’m somewhat concerned that he will not be able to produce an optimal effort if unable to secure a clear early lead. Orbed seems like the logical alternative, but I was never thrilled with his races as a 3-year-old and Rudy Rodriguez has very poor numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is just 5 for 37 (14 percent, $0.48 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt maiden races, and is 0 for 13 in route races within that sample. Given my reservations regarding those with experience, I’m forced to consider the first time starters, and Chad Brown sends out two viable options. The public will probably gravitate towards the $1 million yearling purchase Litany. This Curlin-sired gelding is out of a Grade 1 winning dam who earned over $900,000 during her career. However, she has not been much of a producer as of yet, with her best foal excelling on turf. I’ve watched some of Litany’s workouts at Palm Meadows and I cannot say that I have been impressed. He was nearly able to match strides with Bandon Woods, who finished off the board in his only start for Brown, and then was under a full-out drive to record a solo 4 furlongs in 49 3/5 on Feb. 24. It’s uncharacteristic for Chad Brown to allow his well-meant runners to be ridden that hard in a workout, so I’m taking a somewhat negative view of this one. While it may be contrary to conventional wisdom, I actually prefer the 4-year-old first time starter Hizaam. This colt has a stellar pedigree, by Bernardini out of a half-sister to Untapable and Paddy O’Prado. Given that stamina-oriented breeding, it’s no surprised that Chad Brown has taken his time getting him to the races and is starting him at a mile. I’ve also watched a few of his recent workouts, and they are slightly more encouraging. He easily held his own against recent debut winner Valid Point on Feb. 24, and he actually worked well in company with Remsen runner-up Network Effect on Feb. 10. It’s worth noting that Network Effect was declared off the Derby trail following that drill, but Hizaam nevertheless has shown the ability to achieve respectable times in the morning without a ton of encouragement. I think this one may have some ability and he could be a square price.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7
 

RACE 8: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#5)
This Heavenly Prize is one of the most fascinating races on the card, as you can make a valid case for any of the seven entrants. There’s no disputing that Divine Miss Grey is a deserving favorite off the strength of her stellar 2018 campaign. She won five races, all of them stakes, including her first graded stakes triumph, and she is the defending champion in this race. While she’s most dangerous when she can make the lead, Manny Franco would be perfectly content to stalk Sower in the early going. A mile is her best distance, and a wet track only helps. I just think she is going to be very difficult for this field to handle. A couple of horses exit the Ladies Handicap in January. While Forever Liesl ran down Sara Street that day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the latter filly turn the tables. Forever Liesl was suited to the longer distance of the Ladies, whereas Sara Street should appreciate the cutback to a one-turn mile. I’d use both of them in some capacity, but I’m taking a shot with Midnight Disguise. I am a fan of this massive filly, and there’s a logical case to be made for her. She had gotten very good last winter while racing into fitness and seemed to ultimately be best in one-turn races. Her Busher score would still make her a player in here, and it’s likely that she has improved since then with another year to mature. Some may have been disappointed by her return effort, but she actually ran very well that day. Feb. 10 was yet another day on the main track when horses who raced inside dominated, and Midnight Disguise raced widest of all. All things considered, she actually did well to get up for second. She’s going to need to step forward this time, and the wet track is a concern, but this filly is an overachiever, and I think she has it in her.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with ALL