PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8:   5 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   6 - 10 - 5 - 9

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2: RISK PROFILE (#3)

The 26-time winner Sevier (#4) figures to attract plenty of support as he drops in for this $32k tag. He’s been a fixture in Parx starter allowance races for Jamie Ness over the past couple of seasons, at times running some towering speed figures. More recently he’s come back down to Earth, though he has been getting the job done lately in some decent races at Delaware and Laurel. Now he’s making his first start in New York for a barn that has found the key to winning on this circuit. Ness had a poor record at NYRA for much of his training career, but he’s 5 for 18 (28%, $3.68 ROI) here over the past year. This gelding’s speed should play well here and he merits respect. Yet I think he’s facing a couple of legitimate rivals. Glory Road (#1) is certainly dangerous is he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He ran very well in his return from the layoff for Orlando Noda two back, but was somewhat disappointing last time on the stretch-out to 7 furlongs. He can obviously rebound now that he’s going out for a sharp barn, but I wanted a different horse out of that Feb. 9 affair. Risk Profile (#3) finished about a length ahead of Glory Road after putting in a nice stretch rally to get up for third. I didn’t love the ride from Jorge Vargas, as he dropped back racing along the rail on the far turn before rallying in the stretch in a race that was dominated towards the front end. I think he’ll be more effective here if Kendrick Carmouche can be more aggressive. He gets the distance and seems to be rounding back into form for Michelle Giangiulio.

Fair Value:
#3 RISK PROFILE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4: SWEET AS SUGAR (#1)

Icy Stare Down (#3) will be tough to beat if she repeats any of her recent races at Laurel. She was an impressive winner of an N1X allowance affair in December, first off the switch into Brittany Russell’s barn from Brad Cox. However, she’s declined in two subsequent starts, finishing off the board at short prices each time. Her last effort was particularly disappointing, as she had dead aim at the gate-to-wire winner and went backwards in the final quarter mile. Now she’s dropping in class, but Brittany Russell doesn’t have as much success on this circuit as she does out of town. Russell is just 8 for 49 (16%, $1.01 ROI) on dirt at NYRA over 5 years. I want to find an alternative to this favorite. Captivating Cara (#4) obviously makes some sense as she goes first off the claim for the dangerous Rob Atras barn. She was an impressive winner last month against a weaker field, but she really had everything go her way that day. She definitely appreciated getting back on a fast track, but I don’t trust her to win two in a row, even with the trainer change. I’m intrigued by Sweet as Sugar (#1) as the potential speed of the speeds. There are plenty of runners who want to be forwardly placed in this affair, but I think Sweet as Sugar is the quickest of them all early. She also has an aggressive rider on her back in Jason Huayas, so I expect her to be sent to the front from this rail draw. Some may downgrade her based on the claim by Lolita Shivmangal, but I thought she actually ran pretty well last time, putting away a pesky pace rival before battling on gamely to the wire. This field is tougher, but she’s run faster races in the past and could fly under the radar here.

Fair Value:
#1 SWEET AS SUGAR, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7: WARRIORS REVENGE (#2)

There is plenty of speed in this New York-bred affair, which could work against Excellent Timing (#6). This horse owns the best TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, but he keeps failing to get the job done over and over again. His last victory came nearly two years ago, and while he’s been against some difficult pace situations since then, that figures to be the case once again. It’s just hard to see him shaking loose with horses like Foolish Ghost and Quickflash in the mix. I don’t think either one of those has a great chance to win, but they do figure to set things up from a runner coming from off the pace. The logical closer is Scilly Cay (#5), who I view as the clear horse to beat given that pace scenario. He hasn’t gotten the job done since mid-December, but he’s run well in all of his recent starts. He just missed at this level two back when he got another favorite pace setup, and last time he closed gamely behind some tougher open company foes. He just makes plenty of sense and deserves to be favored. The horse that I think is most likely to offer sufficient value is Warriors Revenge (#2). At first glance he might seem like another that could get swept up in that pace duel, but he’s been effective using stalking tactics in the past. I thought he ran well to notch his N1X victory two back. Then last time no one was beating impressive winner Bold Journey, and he was competitive with Scilly Cay for the place spot until the late stages. I think he’s better than that effort, and I trust Kendrick Carmouche to put him in the right spot early. Mark Hennig does particularly well with these Windylea Farm horses. I could also throw in Writer's Regret (#3) if he gets ignored on the tote board. He ran a competitive speed figure two back and the trip just didn't work out last time, as he couldn't keep up early. That may happen again, but I do wonder if Trevor McCarthy will change tactics and try to come from off the pace.

Fair Value:
#2 WARRIORS REVENGE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8: BELLA MICHELLE (#5)

This race changed quite a bit with the scratch of expected heavy favorite Frigid Lady. Pebble Lane (#8) could now inherit the favorite's role as she goes out for David Duggan, who has been sending out nothing but live runners lately. She’s been improving with every start of her career, and finished a good second last time at this level sprinting. This will be her first time trying a mile, but she’s bred to go this far, by good route influence Upstart out of a dam who produced multiple route winner Sundaeswithsandy. I’m more interested in Mike Maker’s other runner, who stays in the field. Bella Michelle (#5) is another who looks slower than the favorite, but might have some upside. She was a commanding winner of her maiden race in December over today’s rival Hypnocurrency. She was a little disappointing two back, but I thought she ran better than it might appear last time where she got a little too far back early and was charging hard at the end to just miss third. I don’t mind her getting some added ground here given her physicality. It’s also a positive sign that she’s switching into the barn of Mike Maker, who is having a strong meet.

Fair Value:
#5 BELLA MICHELLE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9: PRINCESS SONYA (#6)

This maiden claiming finale looks wide open. Laochi (#5) figures to go favored as she drops back down to this level second off the claim for Linda Rice after trying maiden special weight foes last time out. She was pretty disappointing in that race, regressing significantly off her return. She could win here if she runs back to her effort two back when she was chasing outside against a good rail. Yet she’s an 0 for 11 maiden who has had her fair share of chances. I want to consider some others. I think we’ll see a better effort from Pauciloquent (#10). She ran like a horse that needed the experience in her debut, as she was a little green early, raced wide on the turn, and stayed on decently in the late stages. That wasn’t the strongest field overall, but Bond runners tend to do better with a start under their belts. My top pick is Princess Sonya (#6). I’m hoping the trainer switch scares off some potential backers. It shouldn’t be a major concern, since Charlton Baker just started serving a suspension this week. This 5-year-old mare took a while to come around, but she ran better than the result might indicate last time when opening up a long lead at this level before fading in the last furlong. That 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her very competitive here, and she shows some solid workouts for her return following a slight layoff. The turnback to 6 furlongs also figures to benefit her.

Fair Value:
#6 PRINCESS SONYA, at 5-1 or greater
#10 PAUCILOQUENT, at 7-1 or greater