by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 1 - 3
RACE 2: MR FANTASY (#6)
Texas Basin is probably the horse to beat as he returns to the NYRA circuit following a trio of decent efforts at Laurel. He closed fairly well against stakes company in the James F. Lewis, and most recently was compromised by a slow pace when trying to make up ground going a mile in a race dominated by front-runners. George Weaver is probably making the right call to turn him back in distance, and the slight drop in class should also help. He’s a deserving favorite, but he’s also had plenty of chances in a race where others appear to possess upside. Writer’s Regret would be a serious foe for the favorite if able to recapture the form he displayed when he broke his maiden two back. He earned a solid 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day in a front-running score. However, he was unable to make the lead last time at this level and benefited from riding a gold rail behind the eventual winner en route to his second-place finish. I prefer another speed type on top. Mr Fantasy showed speed and faded in his debut, but had a right to tire that day after contesting a fast pace in a race won by a deep closer. He clearly improved second time out, as he again displayed excellent gate speed but coupled that with enhanced staying power, kicking away from his rivals in the stretch. He’s drawn the outside post position here, but he seems quicker than his other pace rivals in this spot and I think that he can clear to the front under an aggressive Trevor McCarthy. Furthermore, Kelly Breen is an excellent 11 for 29 (38%, $3.88 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt sprints over the past 5 years.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3 with ALL
RACE 3: SARATOGA BEAUTY (#6)
Wailin Josie has to be considered a deserving favorite in her current form. She’s coming off two consecutive runner-up finishes at this level, each time beaten by horses that are superior to the rivals she faces here. She has developed a habit of breaking a little slowly, but that hasn’t hindered her too much recently, as she’s maintained some admirable consistency. Luis Cardenas appears to be a great fit for her and has ridden her well, but they will have to work out a trip from off the pace in another paceless race here. She is obviously the horse to beat, but I can’t blame anyone who’s reluctant to take a short price on a mare who’s lost 17 consecutive races coming into this. Rival Shesasuperfreak’s one big advantage in this spot is her ample early speed, especially given the lack of pace among her competitors. However, the finish line isn’t on the backstretch, and she still needs to see out this 6 1/2 furlong distance, which has been a problem in the past. She returned from a brief freshening to try this level last time and ran fairly well to be third. However, she did get away with a very favorable pace scenario that day and still couldn't beat today’s favorite. I want to go in a different direction with Saratoga Beauty. She has been the model of consistency from a speed figure standpoint, though she’s been running numbers that are a little below the standard required to win at this level. That said, she’s earned the right to move back up in class after graduating out of the conditioned claiming ranks last time. This filly can be a little difficult to handle, as she gets very keen in her races, and Eric Cancel rides her well. Plus, it’s been unwise to dismiss any runner that looks remotely competitive from the Ralph D'Alessandro barn. Over the past two seasons at Aqueduct, he is a remarkable 11 for 28 (39%, $5.94 ROI) with horses that go off at odds of 10-1 or less.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 3,6
RACE 4: MANDATORY (#7)
Likely favorite Hometown showed plenty of promise last summer when competing for Rodolphe Brisset. He caught a salty field of maidens in his debut Churchill, and closed well behind eventual graded stakes winner Yaupon. Ambitiously stretched all the way out to 1 1/8 miles in his second start, he handled the added ground beautifully, just missing after a stretch-long battle. I don't mind him turning back at all since he’s a half-brother to Grade 2 Amsterdam winner Coup de Grace. Chad Brown is also 4 for 9 (44%, $3.41 ROI) first off a trainer switch following a layoff of 180 days or more on dirt over 5 years. He’s the horse to beat, and I certainly prefer him to Chad Brown’s other runner, Risk Profile. This gelding has had his chances and typically settles for a minor award. His last race was particularly disappointing, as he was never in the hunt behind a pair of Kelly Breen runners in a field that was fairly thin in terms of depth. My top pick is Mandatory. This colt returned from a lengthy layoff this winter with a pair of solid efforts. He nearly got the job done on Jan. 3 and may have been best in that spot as he was trying to rally up a rail that may have not been the best path going a demanding 9-furlong distance. While he was beaten more decisively last time, he was facing a tougher field and arguably put forth a better effort. He battled on the lead and put away today’s rival Clemenza before succumbing to closers. It’s possible that the rail wasn’t he best place to be, and he was inside for much of his trip. He is now drawn well on the outside and may actually prefer getting another cutback in distance.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,6
RACE 7: COLD HARD CASH (#5)
Rudy Rodriguez had entered a pair of runners in this intriguing N2X optional claiming event for New York-breds, and he's elected to scratch Daddy Knows, leaving Wudda U Think Now as his only participant. While the withdrawal of Daddy Knows does take some speed out of the race, it still seems like this race could feature a pretty quick pace, as Not That Brady and Danebury also possess early speed. Wudda U Think Now is coming off a disappointing performance as the favorite at this level last time. He was two-wide against a gold rail that was ridden by his winning stablemate. However, this horse got absolutely perfect trips prior to that and he still only achieved TimeformUS Speed Figures in the low-100s. I prefer to go in a different direction. I’m hoping that will set things up for Cold Hard Cash to run them all down. This Linda Rice trainee will be stepping up to this level for the first time, but he’s run well against some solid rivals at the N1X level in recent starts. He just barely lost the talented Six Percent at Belmont last fall, earning a competitive speed figure. He tailed off a bit after that, but I thought he had a somewhat uncomfortable trip on Dec. 10, and he didn’t seem to handle the slop on Jan. 3 when wired by today’s rival Microscope. Cold Hard Cash appears to have now come back around as his last performance earned a strong 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,7,8
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,2,7,8
RACE 8: PERFECT MUNNINGS (#3)
The unfortunate scratch of Eagle Orb makes this a slightly easier spot, as the focus now shifts to some recent maiden winners. Excellent Timing is probably the horse to beat as he returns from a brief freshening and makes his first start off a trainer switch to Chad Brown following a private purchase. This son of Not This Time was strongly bet in his debut and ran well to lead the field into the last furlong before tiring. He put in a stronger effort as the heavy favorite in his second start, earning a flashy 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that number will make him very tough for this group to handle, but he will have to deal with some other speed to his outside, particularly from Reggae Music Man and The King Cheek. Chad Brown is a very strong 7 for 16 (44%, $3.39 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. He’s the horse to beat, and I prefer him to the other recent maiden winner likely to take money. A Longlongtimeago ran very well in his debut, getting up to defeat a longshot while rallying from just off the pace. However, the race came up a little slower, and he went out for a trainer who has great statistics with first time starters yet doesn’t do quite as well when those horses run back second time out. I’m veering in a different direction, as my top pick is Perfect Munnings. This horse ran well to win the Rego Park Stakes two back in his dirt debut, rallying gamely from a stalking position. This is arguably a tougher spot than that, but I think he could be somewhat underrated here based on his last effort. While he was beaten a dozen lengths by Nicky the Vest, this colt was two- to three-wide the entire way on Feb. 14 when the rail was a significant advantage. All things considered, he stayed on well for third and was the only horse running on at the end. I don’t mind the turnback and think we’ll see a better effort out of him.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,4,6,7