by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 9:   3 - 7 - 9 - 11

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: EDDY DIRT (#2)
Our Honor is going to be a heavy favorite based on his 2018 form, which is vastly superior to that of his rivals in this $20,000 maiden claimer. While he unquestionably would get to the winner’s circle if he runs back to those efforts, I’m skeptical that we’re going to see that same level of performance off a seven-month layoff. This is the third time Linda Rice has attempted to get this runner into the starting gate after claiming him, as he has been a vet scratch in January and again in February. If he starts in this race, I find it hard to believe that he will produce a top effort given owner/trainer Rice’s insistence on dangling him for a bottom-level tag. He’s a horse you have to use defensively, but I’m trying to beat him. Seediskid and Bourbon Boy are viable alternatives, assuming that Our Honor regresses significantly. I’ll use them, but my top pick is second-time starter Eddy Dirt. This runner’s debut was not nearly as poor as it might seem. He broke from the gate without major issues but seemed to react badly to kickback soon thereafter, climbing as the field crossed onto the main track from the chute. He soon lost contact with the field and was hopelessly beaten at the quarter pole. Yet if you watch the head-on replay, this horse really picked up the pace in the stretch once Gutierrez set him down. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter-mile in 25.19 seconds and his last eighth in 12.38 – the latter figure being more than a second faster than any other horse in the field – before galloping out strongly. This son of Violence should have no problem stretching out to nine furlongs. Rudy Rodriguez often conveys his intentions through rider switches, and this move to leading rider Manny Franco has to be considered a positive sign.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,9
Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 3,5,9
 

RACE 4: TRI SAINT LORENZO (#2)
Among those with experience, Stilts is probably the horse to beat. He was somewhat disappointing as the 5-2 second choice last time, but his effort on Dec. 20 was quite good. He made a wide, premature move into contention on the backstretch that day and lost significant ground while attempting to rally on the far turn. He finished just a nose behind next-out winner Motagally and arguably ran the better race on that afternoon. Something clearly went awry last time, and perhaps he will enjoy the cutback in distance. I don’t fully trust him, but I do think he must be included. There is a pair of intriguing first-time starters in this field. Superhighway seems most likely to deliver upon first asking as he goes out for the capable Chad Brown barn and attracts leading rider Manny Franco. This weanling purchase is a full brother to a decent multiple dirt winner, and there is additional class in the second generation of his female family. Kiaran McLaughlin’s first-time starters have needed a start to get rolling in recent years, but Spice Road is certainly bred to have some ability as a full brother to graded stakes winner Avery Island. I’ll use both in some capacity, but my top pick is second-time starter Tri Saint Lorenzo. This modestly bred son of United States ran deceptively well in his Feb. 23 debut. He was bumped while getting away toward the back of the pack. After lagging behind in the opening furlongs, he steadily advanced on the far turn and relentlessly closed ground through the lane to be fourth. That was a reasonably fast race for the level, and he figures to take a step forward with that experience under his belt. The low-profile rider may deter some potential supporters, so he should be a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6,8
 

RACE 6: APEX PREDATOR (#4)
Among those with experience, Deputy Flag is clearly the most likely winner. He has earned respectable speed figures while finishing second in both starts since returning from the layoff. The only major knock against him is that he has not met the toughest rivals so far in 2019, as even that Feb. 22 field at today’s level was relatively weak. His early speed makes him dangerous, especially considering the general lack of pace in this race, but I’m not enthusiastic about accepting a very short price on him. Light the Posse has a right to do better in his second start off the layoff after racing wide against a rail bias last time out. He would be a formidable foe for Deputy Flag were he to replicate his efforts from last summer, but he’s not exactly trustworthy after a series of gaps in his form. I’m intrigued by a couple of first time starters. Roseboro is the one that figures to attract more support as he makes his debut as a 4-year-old following a series of eye-catching workouts down in Florida. While he has clearly shown some speed in the morning and is bred to be a sprinter, there are some obvious drawbacks. Brian Lynch has not been terribly successful with debut runners recently, and it’s taken this colt nearly two years to get to the races following his auction purchase. I would rather take a shot with fellow firster Apex Predator at a more enticing price. It’s unusual to see these low-profile connections with a $250,000 auction purchase, as they generally campaign cheaper runners. This New York-bred appeared to be worth every bit of that quarter-million dollar price tag when he breezed a furlong in 10-flat at the Fasig-Tipton March sale last year, reaching out beautifully over the dirt surface with quick, efficient strides. It’s taken him a year to get to the races, but these are not connections that are known to rush horses. While trainer Friedman has had little success with debut runners over the past few years, his barn is full of slower horses so I don’t want to hold his stats against him. This colt has serious pedigree, by Tale of the Cat out of a Yes It’s True dam who is a half-sister to Japanese Group 1 winner A Shin Forward and $400,000-earner Wake Up in Malibu. I believe it’s a good sign that Jose Lezcano takes the mount and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one turns out to possess real ability.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7,8,10
 

RACE 7: FLATEXCEL (#7)
With the scratch of La Cat Warrior, Flatexcel becomes the horse to beat and likely favorite. Flatexcel has simply run the fastest speed figures in this field and will certainly come out on top if he produces anything close to his top effort. I won’t hold his loss on Feb. 7 against him since he does not care for a wet track. Some may be deterred by his poor performance for the new barn last time, but that performance was totally due to his trip. For whatever reason, the plan seemed to be to rate him, as the connections took blinkers off and Dylan Davis was content to guide him to the back of the pack. Flatexcel has never been successful from off the pace, and he unsurprisingly reacted badly to the change in tactics. Now the blinkers go back on, and the Pace Projector indicates he is fast enough to be in front in a situation favoring the early leader. The remaining options are not particularly appealing. Hopper Droppers owns the second fastest speed figure, but he's not a reliable win candidate. Chris Englehart has entered a pair of runners, but neither one is trustworthy, as Adirondack Dream returns from a layoff and Take It To Scale's recent form has been abysmal.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 2,3,5