by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 1A - 2 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 5 - 9
RACE 3: FOREVER LIESL (#4)
I’m against Smile Big as the favorite. I realize that she’s run a couple of speed figures that simply make her faster than the other contenders in this race. However, she’s been the beneficiary of some very favorable circumstances in those races. Last July 31, when she ran that career-best race at Saratoga, she was setting a slow pace while riding a golden rail. Then last time out, she took advantage of that Jan. 26 inside bias at Aqueduct, battling back to win after looking beaten in midstretch. Rudy Rodriguez realistically drops her in class off that win, but I prefer some other more lightly raced runners. The horse I think is in the best position to beat her is Forever Liesl. Michelle Nevin has decent enough numbers coming off layoffs of this type, and this filly ran some competitive speed figures as a 3-year-old. The triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures that she recorded on April 22 and Sept. 28 are just as fast as anything Smile Big has ever run. It’s somewhat of a concern that she appears to have done her best work at Laurel, but she actually faced some stiff competition in a few of those races. Furthermore, she was badly overmatched in her only route attempt on the NYRA circuit when finishing far behind the formidable Unchained Melody. I’ll use her over the logical Total Control and the aforementioned favorite.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
RACE 7: MISS SIZZLE (#1)
This race is totally wide-open, as you can make a valid case for any of the eight entrants. The horse to beat is probably Leah’s Dream as she enters on a three-race winning streak. All of those victories came against cheaper company, but she’s run some fast speed figures and looks ready for the step up in class. She was claimed out of her last race by Chris Englehart, who does a decent job in that situation. I’m not really against her, but I do think you want to look elsewhere for value. A slightly better option is Hexameter. They tried a mile with her in her last two starts, but that’s just a bit too far for her. I like her cutting back to this six-furlong distance, and she appears to be in very good form. I’m using her, but the horse who interests me most at an even bigger price is Miss Sizzle. I know that she looks slower than her main rivals at first glance, but I think there’s reason to believe she’s going to take a big step forward here. It’s a sign of confidence that Linda Rice is moving her up in class to this protected spot off a maiden-claiming win. There was a time when this filly was thought to have some talent, as she was bet down to even-money in her debut last year and showed high speed before fading in her second start. She was bet strongly in that most recent win and won with ease after setting a slow pace. There isn’t that much pace signed on for this affair, so she can use her tactical edge to her advantage, as Leah’s Dream is likely to stalk once again. Most notably, Rice has fantastic numbers second off a layoff with horses coming off wins in dirt sprints (24 for 49, $3.47 ROI). I think she could take a big step forward here, and the price has to be generous.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL
Trifecta: 1,2 with ALL with 1,2
RACE 8: EIGHTH COMMANDMENT (#2)
You have to be concerned about the pace of this race since The Cake Is a Lie appears to have a significant edge. She’s coming out of much cheaper races than her rivals, but her speed figures are not significantly slower than those runners, and this trainer has been known to get horses to run competitively despite major class upgrades off the claim. I’m not a fan of her getting the seven furlongs here, but I do think she’s a dangerous horse who deserves some respect. Sugarille is obviously the one to beat. She’s just run a bit faster than most of her rivals and has consistently performed well over her last few starts. There’s nothing particularly compelling about her form, but I do feel that she’s a deserving favorite. However, I’m hoping that Eighth Commandment can benefit from this seven-furlong distance and turn the tables. I know that she’s unlikely to get much pace to close into, but that matters more going shorter distances. This mare has a strong finish when she can fully wind up to top late speed, as she did against cheaper company on Jan. 14. She was actually running on well at the end of her last race despite facing an impossible pace scenario going the shorter trip. It certainly doesn’t hurt to have top rider Dylan Davis aboard.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6
RACE 9: DESERT AFFAIR (#1)
I’m not enamored with the favorites in this race. Dune Buggy ran a strong speed figure when breaking her maiden two back, but that came against a very weak group going a mile. She was facing a significantly tougher field last time, and was compromised by racing wide against a good rail. She makes some sense here, but Linda Rice is dropping her all the way down to the bottom level, which is not a great sign. Passporttovictory is another one that could take money as she’s claimed back by Tom Morley. Her recent form is subpar, but her early speed could make her dangerous in a race lacking pace. I’ll use both, but I think we can get a bit more creative in this spot. I’m taking a shot with Desert Affair at a big price. This filly isn’t going to win if the two aforementioned runners show up with their better efforts, but she’s no worse than some others that are likely to attract support in here. Her recent races make her look worse than she is. She didn’t want to go a mile three back, and then last time she was wide for the second half of the race while attempting to close into a slow pace over a rail-biased track. Now she gets a positive rider switch to Rafael Hernandez and could get lost in the shuffle.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7,8,9