PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   8 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 2 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 5: RYAN’S CAT (#7)

It’s fairly obvious that Majority Partner (#5) is a likely winner of this race as he finds a softer field for this level than he met just 8 days ago. He was also stretching out to a mile that day and actually ran a pretty brave race to just miss. His recent speed figures just tower over this field and he has the positional speed to get any kind of trip in this race. I’m not really against him, but he figures to be a very short price and I think there’s one rival who figures to offer better value. There is plenty of speed signed on here, as horses like Prisoner, Trash Talker, and perhaps even layoff runner Surprise Boss could show speed. I think that could set it up for a runner coming from off the pace. Some might not immediately identify Ryan’s Cat (#7) as a late runner, but I think his connections are going to change tactics from last time now that they’re removing the blinkers. He has run well from off the pace in the past, but has struggled with consistency. I do think each of his last two efforts are better than they seem. He was outside chasing against a gold rail two back, and then last time was sent on a mission to pressure heavy favorite Today’s Flavor on the front end, and ultimately paid the price. I expect to see a different sort of trip here and he figures to be a generous price now that his form is muddled.

Fair Value:
#7 RYAN'S CAT, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6: ROL AGAIN DANCER (#7)

I don’t have a big problem with Valenzan Day (#3), who looks like a logical favorite dropping in class for the dangerous Linda Rice barn. It seems like Linda is just acknowledging that she didn’t make a great claim, as he has not lived up to expectations since she paid $50k for him last December. I can excuse his poor effort in the Jerome, but it would have been nice to see him do a little more running last time, when he couldn’t even display the early speed he once possessed. He makes sense here against a softer field, but I think he faces one chief rival who is improving. Rol Again Dancer (#7) finished behind Valenzan Day two back, and then was beaten by another of today’s rivals last time. Yet I think this horse has really improved since switching into the barn of Michelle Nevin. He was an unlucky loser of that February race, as he did all the hard work on the front end, contesting a very fast pace that fell apart. He battle back when challenged in the lane, but couldn’t hold off the winner. His 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort stacks up well against even the favorite’s recent numbers. I like the slight turnback in distance, and he gets an aggressive rider on board in apprentice Jaime Torres. The other interesting horse is Linda Rice’s other runner, Larz (#8). This is where Jose Lezcano lands as this colt looks to get back on track after a couple of dispapointing efforts following his debut win. He was a pace casualty behind Rol Again Dancer last time, but may be capable of betting here as he draws the outside post.

Fair Value:
#7 ROL AGAIN DANCER, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7: SOUTHERN DISTRICT (#7)

Untreated (#6) is the class of this field as he returns from a layoff, commencing a 5-year-old campaign. At his best, this horse is capable of competing in graded stakes, having hit the board in the G3 Pimlico Special and G2 Suburban last year. On both of those occasions he benefited from front-running trips setting moderate paces. Yet he ran just fine with a stalking trip against some of the best older horses in the country when fourth in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup two back. His 2022 campaign obviously ended on a sour note, but now he’s back in a reasonable spot. I’m just a little concerned that the one-mile distance may be on the short side for him, and he doesn’t figure to be much of a price. Horses like Market Alert (#1) and Bourbon Calling (#6) could take money as they each exit wins over this course and distance. However, both seems like the types that you wanted to have last time, as now they’re stepping up into tougher spots. I’m interested in two different alternatives to this favorite. Curlin’s Wisdom (#4) also has some things to prove on the class rise, but with the lone exception of a rare poor effort two back, he’s been earning speed figures that put him in the mix here. He also still has some upside as a young 4-year-old and could be a better price. My top pick is Southern District (#7). This runner put in some big efforts here last winter when still part of the Chad Brown stable, including a 6-length score over this distance. He subsequently validated that form with two other strong efforts around one turn last spring and summer. He subsequently went the wrong way in the second half of the season, and was dropped in for a tag. Yet hot back on track for Lynn Cash recently, narrowly losing a pair of decent allowance races. The newfound early speed he displayed in his most recent start bodes well for him handling this turnback in distance. He now goes out for Tom Morley, who is 8 for 26 (31%, $3.55 ROI) first off the claim for Flying P Stable.

Fair Value:
#7 SOUTHERN DISTRICT, at 4-1 or greater
#4 CURLIN'S WISDOM, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8: LOOMS BOLDLY (#2)

This Damon Runyon may not have drawn the biggest field, but it’s a fascinating race in which you can make cases for multiple contenders. I do think the horse to beat is D’ont Lose Cruz (#5). This turnback in distance just makes plenty of sense for a horse who didn’t look like he wanted any part of a mile last time. He had run well in all of his prior sprint starts, and I liked the versatility he displayed in victory two back, adapting his running style to rallying from off the pace. He’s drawn well outside and figures to work out a good trip as he’s reunited with Kendrick Carmouche. What’s Up Bro (#1) is another to consider. He appears to be in strong form right now, coming off a convincing allowance victory. Rating tactics seemed to work for him last time, so I imagine they’ll be looking to replicate that trip. The wild card in the field is Andiamo a Firenze (#3), who showed some talented as a sprinter early in his career. However, he never really stepped forward off that impressive debut at Belmont last June when he rode a good rail. I can forgive him for his last couple of outings, since he doesn’t want to go that far and rating tactics were not going to work out in those situations. I have some questions about where he stands right now, and he could attract some support based on reputation. After the scratch of Breen’s other runner, East Coast Girl, I reassessed this race and upgraded the horse who I think will be controlling up front. Looms Boldly (#2) was beaten by What’s Up Bro last time, but he didn’t get an ideal trip. This horse broke a step slowly and then raced in traffic when trying to rush up between rivals. He was in an uncomfortable position for the opening quarter mile of that race before making an early move to the lead outside. He ultimately faded, but I think he might be capable of better second off the layoff. He moved forward in his second start of the form cycle last year, and I think we’re going to see a better effort this time, as long as he breaks cleanly.

Fair Value:
#2 LOOMS BOLDLY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9: DARK STORM (#3)

This race changed quite a bit after scratches, forcing me to reassess my original opinions. David Jacobson scratched the stronger half of this entry, going only with Musical Heart (#1A), who doesn’t figure to attract as much support. I think the horse to beat is Irish Honor (#5). He ran a strange race last time, as he broke near the front and contested the pace for the opening quarter before steadily dropping back through the pack. He looked hopelessly beaten on the turn, but started running again in the stretch to come back for third. He’s since been claimed by Rob Atras and will be a major factor here if he can rebound to some of his prior races. My Friends Beer (#2) finished farther back in that same race, but he’s since returned to fare better in a couple of different claiming spots. He closed well for second behind the classy Daddy Knows two back, and last time got steadied along the rail at the quarter pole when trying to make a run. He’s also part of an entry, but still figures to be a better price. As I went over this race again, I gave a second look to longshot Dark Storm (#3), and there is a case to be made for this 7-year-old gelding. He’s racing first off the claim for Dawn Skelton, who is not a familiar name. Yet she did claim a horse off Mertkan Kantarmaci earlier this winter who has since run back twice and held his form reasonably well. Dark Storm was ridden by the Turkish jockey Gokhan Kocakaya in his last two starts, and I don’t think he got very good trips either time. That rider tends to be very aggressive, and it doesn’t really suit this horse’s style. Last time he was sent hard from the gate to set an honest pace before fading. He dueled with Warrior In Chief, who has since come back to register two improved efforts. I think there’s potential for better here with the rider switch to Eric Cancel and the price should be generous.

Fair Value:
#3 DARK STORM, at 11-1 or greater
#2 MY FRIENDS BEER, at 5-1 or greater