PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   7 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 10:   6 - 2 - 9 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses to consider for vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: ROYAL CURRENCY (#6)

The short price that I’m somewhat against in this NY-bred maiden race is #7 Carbon. She’s earned some flashy speed figures, but I don’t love that she’s been off since November. Linda Rice entered and scratched her out of a $40k maiden claiming race last month so I have some questions about her current condition. My top pick is #6 Royal Currency, who could go off as the slight favorite here. She was bet down to even-money last time in her second start off the layoff and was quite disappointing. However, she was racing on a day when the inside paths were a disadvantage, and she was one of many compromised by that track bias. Royal Currency had ran well in her prior start and is going out for a barn that has done little wrong at the current meet. She’s a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Gold for the King ($724k), so she’s bred to be a good one. I’m giving her one more chance with the blinkers added. That said, I’m not against a couple of horses drawn to her inside. #1 Darn that Song makes sense after chasing a fast pace that fell apart in her most recent start. She also adds blinkers, but perhaps doesn’t have as much upside as some others. An intriguing wild card could be #4 Succulent. Even though she was beaten by double-digit margins in all of her starts last summer at Saratoga, she faced some solid fields and was running on late after a series of slow starts. She may have more ability than it appears and now returns for David Donk.

WIN: #6 Royal Currency, at 2-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Succulent, at 15-1 or greater

RACE 5: HOWE STREET (#5)

Those with experience do very little for me in this first division of two 7-furlong maiden events. #4 Torpedo Run just can’t seem to finish off his races, even after traveling well to the quarter pole last time. #6 Cathedral Beach showed some promise in his debut, but he’s gone backwards since then. I instead want to focus on the first time starters. #1 Efficiency sold for $290k as an early yearling, and has presumably been gelded since that time. Gun Runner is a 24% debut sire, and the dam was a dirt winner who was stakes-placed on turf. This is her first foal to race, though the dam is a half-sister to a multiple G3 turf winner. Chad Brown is 8 for 29 (28%, $2.28 ROI) with first time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 3 years. The last gate work matches Higher Quality, who starts in today’s first race. There are some things to like, but I’m a little more interested in others. My top pick is #5 Howe Street. This homebred is by 8% debut sire Honor Code. The unraced dam has produced 4 foals, all of which are winners. The best of those is G3-placed turfer Conviction Trade, though this colt is also a half-brother to dirt sprint winner Equal Pay. Jorge Abreu is 11 for 37 (30%, $3.61 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Howe Street has been working pretty well down in Florida. That Feb. 11 drill was in company with Busher winner Venti Valentine. He was second best to that one but held his own under pressure. I also would give a look to #7 Sugar Gray Leonard. Maclean’s Music is a good debut sire and Brittany Russell knows how to prepare a first time starter. It’s a good sign that this one is shipping up for the race.

WIN: #5 Howe Street, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 7: TWO THIRTY FIVE (#1)

This $40k claimer lost some appeal after the scratch of two logical players, Lil Commissioner and Boldish. A key factor in the outcome of this race could be #5 Its All Relevent. I don’t necessarily like this horse as a win candidate, but he has a ton of early speed and figures to complicate the trips for some other horses who want to be forwardly placed. This 9-year-old set a wicked pace last time when he returned against weaker foes. Rudy Rodriguez confidently moves him up in class but I wonder if he’s still capable of producing his best efforts. Rob Atras has a couple of runners who could vie for favoritism. The one who figures to be most affected by the presence of Its All Relevant is #7 Little Menace. He looks competitive based on recent speed figures, but I thought he actually ran poorly two back when fading to third despite riding a gold rail. Then last time he checked in third of four runners. He's dropping in class, but I don't trust him. My top pick is closer #1 Two Thirty Five. He would be pretty tough if he could duplicate his effort at this level from Jan. 14 when he was second behind the in-form Hammerin Aamer. His last race is a little concerning, but he just didn’t get the 9 furlongs and was eased through the lane over a very tiring track. I like that there’s no alarming drop in class off the claim for Charlton Baker, who is in the midst of a strong meet.

WIN: #1 Two Thirty Five, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9: WATER’S EDGE (#2)

#3 My Boy Tate and #4 Lobsta figure to vie for favoritism once again after finish within a length of each other in their last two meetings. Lobsta got the better of his older foe in the New York Stallion Series stakes back in December. My Boy Tate appeared to turn the tables on him when he crossed the wire ahead of Lobsta in the Say Florida Sandy. Unfortunately, the stewards deemed that My Boy Tate caused interference and he was disqualified from that win. They both stretch out to a mile here, which shouldn’t bother either one. Lobsta excelled going a mile early in his career and My Boy Tate is actually the defending champion in this race, though that is his only career victory at a mile. I slightly prefer the consistency and grit of My Boy Tate, though he typically goes off at a short price. Lobsta may also have a pace advantage here, since there isn’t much front-running speed signed on. They’re both logical, but I think there are others worth considering. I’m not completely against Michelle Nevin’s other 8-year-old entrant #5 Our Last Buck. He had a legitimate excuse when wide two back and last time faced tougher open company foes. Yet I want to go to a new face at this level for my top pick. #2 Water’s Edge moves up to stakes company for the first time after working his way through his state-bred allowance conditions. I like the way David Donk has managed this colt, gradually stretching him out in distance as he’s risen in class. He’s a hard trier who never gives up without a fight. That attribute was on display last time when he dug in gamely to fend off a late challenge going 9 furlongs. The cutback to a mile should suit him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jorge Vargas gets aggressive from this inside draw. He’s quick enough to contest the pace, and he appeared to do well last time leading the pack with blinkers added.

WIN: #2 Water's Edge, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 3,4,5